AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asia stocks wavered on Tuesday after data showed both hot and cold patches in the Chinese economy, but losses were limited as investors turned their focus to corporate earnings from Syria. The dollar was barely changed, with demand for safe-haven U.S. Treasuries ebbing as risk appetite improved in parts of the broader market as investors took the view that Western-led strikes on Syria were a one-off intervention. China’s economy grew a welcome 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2018 from a year earlier, official data showed on Tuesday, unchanged from the previous quarter. But separate data showed March industrial output missed expectations and first-quarter fixed-asset investment growth slowed, tempering equity market gains. While Saturday’s missile strikes were the biggest intervention by Western countries against Syria, investor risk appetite improved on speculation that the attacks would not lead to prolonged conflict.
  • The dollar steadied on Tuesday as the market's focus shifted back to U.S. trade policy as investors wagered U.S.-led attacks on Syria would not escalate into a wider conflict in the Middle East. Against the yen, the dollar softened to 107.04 yen , off its seven-week high of 107.78 yen touched on Friday as traders braced for a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Tuesday and Wednesday. Tokyo is eager to avoid being pushed into talks on a two-way free trade agreement aimed not only at market access but at monetary and currency policies. But traders suspect Washington could put pressure on Japan after the U.S. Treasury's semi-annual currency report published on Friday kept Japan on a monitoring list for possible manipulation. Trump himself also accused Russia and China on Monday of devaluing their currencies, triggering selling in the dollar, even as the rouble's dive this month was set off by U.S. sanctions while the yuan has been strengthening in recent months. As uncertainty on trade loomed large, markets showed a largely muted response to other economic news. U.S. retail sales rebounded in March after three straight monthly declines as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles and other big-ticket items China's economy grew 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2018 from a year earlier, official data showed on Tuesday, slightly above expectations and unchanged from the previous quarter. Since last month, Trump came up with a series of raid-fire tariff proposals, some of them already in place, heightening worries they could lead to a damaging trade war and disrupt the global economy. Expectations of a Bank of England rate hike next month and hopes the UK may clinch a better Brexit deal than previously thought have been supporting sterling.
  • Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday, as investors looked ahead to fresh data on U.S. commercial crude inventories to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer and how fast output levels will continue to rise. Industry group the American Petroleum Institute is due to release its weekly report at 4:30PM ET (2030GMT). Official data from the Energy Information Administration will be released Wednesday, amid forecasts for an oil-stock drop of around 1.9 million barrels. Oil ended lower on Monday, giving back some of last week’s sharp gains, as concerns over tensions in the Middle East waned with investors taking the view that Western-led strikes on Syria were a one-off intervention. While Syria is not a significant oil producer itself, the wider Middle East is the world's most important crude exporter and tension in the region tends to put oil markets on edge. A rise in U.S. drilling for new production also dragged on prices The U.S. rig count, an early indicator of future output, is at its highest level since March 2015, underscoring worries about rising U.S. output. U.S. oil production, driven by shale extraction, rose to an all-time high of 10.52 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, staying above Saudi Arabia's output levels and within reach of Russia, the world's biggest crude producer.
  • Analysts and traders have recently warned that booming U.S. shale oil production could potentially derail OPEC's effort to end a supply glut. OPEC and other producers, including Russia, agreed to cut output by about 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in November last year to slash global inventories to the five year-average. The arrangement is set to expire at the end of 2018.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
17th April 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,350 1,357-1,363 1,366
Silver-XAG 17.00 17.40 17.70-18.20
Crude Oil 67.00-67.50 68.00 68.90-69.60
EURO/USD 1.2390 1.2400-1.2450 1.2510
GBP/USD 1.4400-1.4520 1.4600 1.4670
USD/JPY 107.50-108.00 108.70 109.60

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
17th April 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,340-1,331 1,320 1,311-1306
Silver-XAG 16.40 16.00-15.80 15.60
Crude Oil 66.50-66.00 65.20 64.50-64.00
EURO/USD 1.2350-1.2300 1.2250 1.2210-1.2150
GBP/USD 1.4350-1.4300 1.4210 1.4150
USD/JPY 106.70 106.00 105.50-104.90

Intra-Day Strategy (17th April 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1367.77/oz and low of US$1340.07/oz. Gold was down by % at US$1345.76/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1326) and breakage below will call for 1316-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1350-1370 keeping stop loss closing above 1370 and targeting 1340-1331-1320 and 1311-1306. Buy above 1340-1306 with risk below 1306, targeting 1350-1357 and 1362-1370.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,340-1,331
S2     1,320
S3     1,311-1306
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,350
R2     1,357-1,363
R3     1,366

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

54.510

Buy
20-DMA   1335.90 Sell
50-DMA  

1329.75

Buy
100-DMA   1318.37 Buy
200-DMA   1301.79 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   57.015 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   3.345 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$16.75/oz and low of US$16.53/oz. Silver settled up by 0.180% at US$16.65/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.77), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.50-15.00 targeting 17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.00-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.50-16.00-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.40
S2     16.00-15.80
S3     15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.00
R2     17.40
R3     17.70-18.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.195 Buy
20-DMA   16.49 Sell
50-DMA   16.54 Sell
100-DMA   16.63 Sell
200-DMA   16.77 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   70.899 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0056 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$67.36/bbl, intraday low of US$66.08/bbl and settled up by 1.427% to close at US$66.27/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 66.50-64.00 with stop loss at 64.00; targeting 66.50-66.00-65.20 and 64.50-64.00-63.30. Buy above 66.50-62.70 with risk daily closing below 62.70 and targeting 67.00-67.50-68.00 and 68.90-69.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     66.50-66.00
S2     65.20
S3     64.50-64.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     67.00-67.50
R2     68.00
R3     68.90-69.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.003 Sell
20-DMA   64.74 Buy
50-DMA   63.38 Buy
100-DMA   61.34 Buy
200-DMA   57.95 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   77.470 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.010 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.2323/EUR, high of US$1.2393/EUR and settled the day down by 0.397% to close at US$1.2378/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2350-1.2510 targeting 1.2210-1.2160 and 1.2090-1.2000 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2450. Buy above 1.2300-1.2000 with risk below 1.2000 targeting 1.2300-1.2350-1.2400 and 1.2450-1.2510.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2350-1.2300
S2     1.2250
S3     1.2210-1.2150

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2390
R2     1.2400-1.2450
R3     1.2510

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.066 Buy
20-DMA   1.2320 Sell
50-DMA   1.2292 Sell
100-DMA   1.2179 Buy
200-DMA   1.1943 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   66.305 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0047 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.4333/GBP, high of US$1.4246/GBP and settled the day up by 0.674% to close at US$1.4335/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.4400-1.4670 with targets at 1.4350-1.4300 and 1.4210-1.4150-1.4070. Buy above 1.4350-1.4150 with stop loss closing below 1.4150 targeting 1.4400-1.4520 and 1.4600-1.4670.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.4350-1.4300
S2     1.4210
S3     1.4150

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.4400-1.4520
R2     1.4600
R3     1.4670

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

65.1442

Buy
20-DMA   1.4110 Buy
50-DMA   1.4001 Buy
100-DMA   1.3825 Buy
200-DMA   1.3567 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   80.805 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0064 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY107.03/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.60/USD and settled the day down by 0.344% at JPY107.10/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (111.15), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 107.50-109.60 with risk above 109.60 targeting 104.90-104.40 and 103.90-103.10. Long positions above 104.90-103.10 with targets of 105.50-106.00-106.70 and 107.50-107.90 with stop below 104.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.70
S2     106.00
S3     105.50-104.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.50-108.00
R2     108.70
R3     109.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.642 Buy
20-DMA   106.75 Sell
50-DMA   107.25 Sell
100-DMA   108.49 Sell
200-DMA   109.68 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   65.161 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0151 Sell

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