AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares crept ahead on Wednesday after Wall Street took heart from upbeat corporate earnings, though nagging concerns about trade barriers and the global growth outlook kept currencies and bonds subdued. Chinese markets struggled even as Beijing boosted liquidity in the banking system. Shanghai blue chips hit an eight-month low before recouping losses. Late Tuesday, the PBOC unexpectedly announced it would cut the cash banks must hold as reserves in a move that frees up lending for small firms but falls short of a broad monetary easing. Mainland Chinese shares buckled after the United States banned American companies from selling components to Chinese telecom equipment maker ZTE Corp. Yet there were signs of caution in the latest BofA Merrill Lynch survey of fund mangers which found investors squirreling more funds away into cash, while cutting their equity allocation to an 18-month low. The outlook for the global economy also darkened with just a net 5 percent of fund managers expecting stronger growth in the next 12 months - the lowest since the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU in June 2016. While the IMF left its global growth forecasts unchanged for 2018 and 2019 on Tuesday, it judged medium-term risks were to the downside - citing financial vulnerabilities, geopolitical strains and tariffs. Worries about the longevity of the U.S. economic expansion were one reason the Treasury curve was at its flattest in a decade and why some interest-rate curves were starting to price in rate cuts for 2020. U.S. Secretary of State nominee and CIA Director Mike Pompeo secretly visited North Korea and met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to discuss a planned summit with President Trump.
  • The dollar edged up on Wednesday, as firm U.S. economic data supported the greenback against the yen and headline risks around U.S.-China trade relations and tensions in the Middle East appeared to take a backseat. The greenback found support from economic indicators as the market focused on fundamentals as perceived political risks receded, with Western strikes on Syria not expected to escalate and a lull in major U.S.-China trade-related headlines. U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Tuesday opened two days of talks at the president's retreat in Florida. Japan fears Trump will try to link vital security matters with touchy trade topics, while talks so far between Trump and Abe have largely focused on a prospective U.S.-North Korea summit. Caution over U.S.-China trade tensions continued to linger in the background, confining currencies to narrow ranges. The greenback received a small knock earlier in the week after Trump touched upon the currency policies of China and Russia, before finding relief after Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin clarified Trump's comments on Tuesday. The markets were still pricing in a more than an even chance of the Bank of England hiking interest rates in May, which had helped sterling advance aggressively this month.
  • Gold prices slipped on Wednesday as dollar held its gains on the back of upbeat U.S. housing and industrial output data. Housing starts climbed 1.9% to 1.319 million units, data on Tuesday showed. Separately, the Federal Reserve said industrial production rose 0.5% in March after jumping 1.0% in February. Meanwhile, the dollar remained steady in Asia on Wednesday morning and gained slightly against other major Asian currencies. A hawkish speech from Fed official John Williamson Tuesday reassured rate hikes this year, and eyes are on U.S.-Japan meeting this week to look for cues, with talks over trade and an upcoming summit with North Korea that could ease geopolitical strains in East Asia.
  • Oil prices rose on Wednesday, lifted by a reported decline in U.S. crude inventories and by the ongoing risk of supply disruptions. In the United States, crude inventories fell by 1 mn barrels last week, to 428 mn barrels, according to a weekly report by the API on Tuesday. Official weekly U.S. data will be published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. Outside the United States, oil markets have been receiving general support due to a sense that there are high risks of supply disruptions, including a potentially spreading conflict in the Middle East, renewed U.S. sanctions against Iran and falling output as a result of political and economic crisis in Venezuela. Beyond voluntary supply restrictions aimed at propping up prices led by the producer cartel of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) since 2017, O’Loughlin said falling output in Venezuela due to its political and economic turmoil was supporting prices. The lower OPEC supplies come as demand is healthy, with China’s refineries processing a record 12.1 million bpd of crude oil in March. Dutch bank ING said in a note to clients that Brent had risen back above $70 per barrel in April “due to geopolitical risks along with some fundamentally bullish developments in the market”. It raised its average 2018 price forecast for Brent to $66.50 a barrel from $60.25, and its 2018 WTI forecast to $62.50 per barrel from $57.75.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
18th April 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,350 1,357-1,363 1,366
Silver-XAG 17.00 17.40 17.70-18.20
Crude Oil 67.00-67.50 68.00 68.90-69.60
EURO/USD 1.2390 1.2400-1.2450 1.2510
GBP/USD 1.4300-1.4350 1.4400 1.4520-1.4600
USD/JPY 107.50-108.00 108.70 109.60

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
18th April 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,340-1,331 1,320 1,311-1306
Silver-XAG 16.40 16.00-15.80 15.60
Crude Oil 66.50-66.00 65.20 64.50-64.00
EURO/USD 1.2350-1.2300 1.2250 1.2210-1.2150
GBP/USD 1.4250 1.4210-1.4150 1.4080
USD/JPY 106.70 106.00 105.50-104.90

Intra-Day Strategy (18th April 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1349.33/oz and low of US$1337.59/oz. Gold was up by 0.132% at US$1347.11/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1326) and breakage below will call for 1316-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1350-1370 keeping stop loss closing above 1370 and targeting 1340-1331-1320 and 1311-1306. Buy above 1340-1306 with risk below 1306, targeting 1350-1357 and 1362-1370.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,340-1,331
S2     1,320
S3     1,311-1306
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,350
R2     1,357-1,363
R3     1,366

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

54.510

Buy
20-DMA   1335.90 Sell
50-DMA  

1329.75

Buy
100-DMA   1318.37 Buy
200-DMA   1301.79 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   57.015 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   3.345 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$16.78/oz and low of US$16.57/oz. Silver settled up by 0.7211% at US$16.76/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.77), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.50-15.00 targeting 17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.00-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.50-16.00-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.40
S2     16.00-15.80
S3     15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.00
R2     17.40
R3     17.70-18.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.970 Buy
20-DMA   16.55 Sell
50-DMA   16.56 Sell
100-DMA   16.64 Sell
200-DMA   16.77 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   74.529 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0056 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$66.69/bbl, intraday low of US$65.58/bbl and settled up by 0.406% to close at US$66.61/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 66.50-64.00 with stop loss at 64.00; targeting 66.50-66.00-65.20 and 64.50-64.00-63.30. Buy above 66.50-62.70 with risk daily closing below 62.70 and targeting 67.00-67.50-68.00 and 68.90-69.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     66.50-66.00
S2     65.20
S3     64.50-64.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     67.00-67.50
R2     68.00
R3     68.90-69.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.003 Sell
20-DMA   64.74 Buy
50-DMA   63.38 Buy
100-DMA   61.34 Buy
200-DMA   57.95 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   77.470 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.010 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.2335/EUR, high of US$1.2412/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0405% to close at US$1.2368/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2350-1.2510 targeting 1.2210-1.2160 and 1.2090-1.2000 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2450. Buy above 1.2300-1.2000 with risk below 1.2000 targeting 1.2300-1.2350-1.2400 and 1.2450-1.2510.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2350-1.2300
S2     1.2250
S3     1.2210-1.2150

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2390
R2     1.2400-1.2450
R3     1.2510

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.066 Buy
20-DMA   1.2320 Sell
50-DMA   1.2292 Sell
100-DMA   1.2179 Buy
200-DMA   1.1943 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   66.305 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0047 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.4281/GBP, high of US$1.4376/GBP and settled the day down by 0.348% to close at US$1.4285/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.4400-1.4670 with targets at 1.4350-1.4300 and 1.4210-1.4150-1.4070. Buy above 1.4350-1.4150 with stop loss closing below 1.4150 targeting 1.4400-1.4520 and 1.4600-1.4670.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.4250
S2     1.4210-1.4150
S3     1.4080

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.4300-1.4350
R2     1.4400
R3     1.4520-1.4600

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

65.1442

Buy
20-DMA   1.4110 Buy
50-DMA   1.4001 Buy
100-DMA   1.3825 Buy
200-DMA   1.3567 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   80.805 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0064 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY106.87/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.20/USD and settled the day down by 0.102% at JPY106.94/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (111.15), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 107.50-109.60 with risk above 109.60 targeting 104.90-104.40 and 103.90-103.10. Long positions above 104.90-103.10 with targets of 105.50-106.00-106.70 and 107.50-107.90 with stop below 104.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.70
S2     106.00
S3     105.50-104.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.50-108.00
R2     108.70
R3     109.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.197 Buy
20-DMA   106.81 Sell
50-DMA   107.24 Sell
100-DMA   108.44 Sell
200-DMA   109.63 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   43.315 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.1624 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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