AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Resource stocks were on a roll in Asia on Thursday as oil prices hit heights not seen since late 2014 and ignited a rally across commodities, though the potential boost to inflation globally also put some pressure on fixed-income assets. The surge came on a Reuters report that OPEC’s new price hawk Saudi Arabia would be happy for crude to rise to $80 or even $100, a sign Riyadh will seek no changes to a supply-cutting deal even though the agreement’s original target is within sight. The leap in oil combined with fears that sanctions on Russia could hit supplies of other commodities to light a fire under the entire sector. Aluminum prices reached their highest since 2011, alumina touched an all-time peak and nickel jumped the most in 6-1/2 years. Such increases, if sustained, could fuel inflationary pressures and investors hedged by selling sovereign bonds. Resource stocks were the big winners, driving Chinese blue chips up 1.1 percent. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.9 percent, with energy up over 2.6 percent. The bullish sentiment in markets comes amid wider optimism about economic growth. The global economy is expected to expand this year at its fastest pace since 2010, the latest Reuters polls of over 500 economists worldwide suggest, but trade protectionism could quickly slow it down. Investors were also relieved that no new U.S. demands on trade came out of a summit between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and U.S. President Donald Trump. The strength in commodity prices helped the Australian dollar easily weather unexpectedly soft jobs data, with employment rising by a meager 4,900 in March. Figures out from New Zealand also showed annual inflation there had slowed to just 1.1 percent in the first quarter, underlining expectations that interest rates would remain at record lows for many more months to come.
  • The dollar was steady against a basket of its peers on Thursday, supported by higher long-term U.S. Treasury yields on improving investor appetite for risk assets, though lingering concerns over U.S.-China trade tensions checked the greenback. Ishikawa was referring to the broad uncertainty stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump's trade and economic policies, as well as geopolitical posturing in the Middle East and elsewhere. The U.S.-China tariff standoff has heightened volatility in financial markets over the past month. Diverging interest rate views have driven the spread between U.S. and German 10-year government bond yields above 230 basis points, the highest since late December 2016. The euro had weakened to a 14-year low the last time the yield spread was at the current width. But it has been relatively immune to the current yield spread widening. The spread has increased more than 30 basis points over the past three months but the common currency has moved within a relatively narrow $1.2556-$1.2154 range. Battered by concerns toward monetary policy and inflation, the lira is one of the worst performing emerging market currencies so far this year.
  • Oil prices rose on Thursday to their highest in over three years as U.S. crude inventories declined and as top exporter Saudi Arabia pushes for higher prices by continuing to withhold supplies. The OPEC and its partners in a supply reduction pact will meet in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on April 20. OPEC will then meet on June 22 to review its oil production policy. OPEC and other major producers including Russia started to withhold output in 2017 to rein in oversupply that had depressed prices since 2014. Reuters reported on Wednesday that top oil exporter Saudi Arabia would be happy to see crude rise to $80 or even $100 a barrel, which was seen as a sign that Riyadh will seek no changes to the supply-cutting deal. Since the start of the supply cuts, crude inventories have gradually declined from record levels toward long-term average levels. In the United States, the EIA said on Wednesday that commercial crude stocks fell by 1.1 million barrels in the week to April 13, to 427.57 million barrels, close to the five-year average level of around 420 million barrels. Further supporting oil prices is an expectation that the United States will re-introduce sanctions against Iran, OPEC’s third-largest producer, which could result in further supply reductions from the Middle East.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
19th April 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,357-1,363 1,366 1,374
Silver-XAG 17.40 17.70-18.20 18.60
Crude Oil 68.90-69.60 70.50 72.00-72.80
EURO/USD 1.2400-1.2450 1.2510 1.2600
GBP/USD 1.4300-1.4350 1.4400 1.4520-1.4600
USD/JPY 107.50-108.00 108.70 109.60

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
19th April 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,350 1,340-1,331 1,320
Silver-XAG 17.00-16.40 16.00 15.60
Crude Oil 67.90 67.00 66.50-66.00
EURO/USD 1.2350-1.2300 1.2250 1.2210-1.2150
GBP/USD 1.4250 1.4210-1.4150 1.4080
USD/JPY 107.00-106.70 106.00 105.50-104.90

Intra-Day Strategy (19th April 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1349.33/oz and low of US$1337.59/oz. Gold was up by 0.328% at US$1347.11/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1326) and breakage below will call for 1316-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1357-1374 keeping stop loss closing above 1374 and targeting 1350-1340-1331 and 1320-1311. Buy above 1350-1311 with risk below 1311, targeting 1357-1362-1370.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,350
S2     1,340-1,331
S3     1,320
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,357-1,363
R2     1,366
R3     1,374

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.231

Buy
20-DMA   1335.57 Sell
50-DMA  

1332.04

Buy
100-DMA   1320.91 Buy
200-DMA   1301.79 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   57.015 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   3.345 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$17.24/oz and low of US$16.71/oz. Silver settled up by 2.50% at US$17.17/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.77), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.50-15.00 targeting 17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.00-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.50-16.00-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.00-16.40
S2     16.00
S3     15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.40
R2     17.70-18.20
R3     18.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   67.078 Buy
20-DMA   16.64 Sell
50-DMA   16.60 Sell
100-DMA   16.66 Sell
200-DMA   16.77 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   90.771 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.121 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$68.85/bbl, intraday low of US$66.50/bbl and settled up by 3.091% to close at US$68.70/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 67.90-66.00 with stop loss at 66.00; targeting 67.90-66.50-66.00 and 65.20-64.50. Buy above 66.50-62.70 with risk daily closing below 62.70 and targeting 67.00-67.50-68.00 and 68.90-69.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     67.90
S2     67.00
S3     66.50-66.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     68.90-69.60
R2     70.50
R3     72.00-72.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   66.476 Sell
20-DMA   65.47 Buy
50-DMA   63.79 Buy
100-DMA   61.63 Buy
200-DMA   58.17 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   84.64 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.333 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.2340/EUR, high of US$1.2396/EUR and settled the day up by 0.032% to close at US$1.2372/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2350-1.2510 targeting 1.2210-1.2160 and 1.2090-1.2000 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2450. Buy above 1.2300-1.2000 with risk below 1.2000 targeting 1.2300-1.2350-1.2400 and 1.2450-1.2510.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2350-1.2300
S2     1.2250
S3     1.2210-1.2150

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2400-1.2450
R2     1.2510
R3     1.2600

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.876 Buy
20-DMA   1.2334 Sell
50-DMA   1.2301 Sell
100-DMA   1.2190 Buy
200-DMA   1.1955 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   54.876 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.4172/GBP, high of US$1.4314/GBP and settled the day down by 0.595% to close at US$1.4200/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.4400-1.4670 with targets at 1.4350-1.4300 and 1.4210-1.4150-1.4070. Buy above 1.4350-1.4150 with stop loss closing below 1.4150 targeting 1.4400-1.4520 and 1.4600-1.4670.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.4250
S2     1.4210-1.4150
S3     1.4080

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.4300-1.4350
R2     1.4400
R3     1.4520-1.4600

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

65.1442

Buy
20-DMA   1.4110 Buy
50-DMA   1.4001 Buy
100-DMA   1.3825 Buy
200-DMA   1.3567 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   80.805 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0064 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY106.98/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.38/USD and settled the day up by 0.214% at JPY107.22/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (111.15), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 107.50-109.60 with risk above 109.60 targeting 104.90-104.40 and 103.90-103.10. Long positions above 104.90-103.10 with targets of 105.50-106.00-106.70 and 107.50-107.90 with stop below 104.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.00-106.70
S2     106.00
S3     105.50-104.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.50-108.00
R2     108.70
R3     109.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.137 Buy
20-DMA   106.85 Sell
50-DMA   107.24 Sell
100-DMA   108.44 Sell
200-DMA   109.63 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   43.315 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.1624 Sell

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