AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar rallied against other major Asian currencies on Friday morning. Japan’s inflation data were in focus on Friday as investors looked for cues for the country’s monetary policy. The dollar rose alongside with the 10-year U.S. treasury yield that climbed to 2.9%, nearing mid-February high. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump made no new fresh demands on trade at his meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe earlier this week. The USD/JPY pair gained 0.28% to 107.65. Japan's March national CPI figures came in at 0.9%, down from the previous 1.0%. The CPI measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer and serves as a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target begins to look grim as inflation continues to droop in the Japanese economy. Despite the limited impact of the monetary easing policy, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the Bank has no plans to drop the policy. Elsewhere,the Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought a total of $6.5 billion in defense of the local dollar's peg to the greenback in the past week, a move that will drain about 30% of the aggregate balance of liquidity by Friday. In currency markets, the main mover was sterling which dived late on Thursday when Bank of England Governor Mark Carney cooled expectations for an interest rate hike in May, pointing out there were "other meetings" this year. On the radar later in the day will be IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington where free trade and protectionism are certain to be high on the agenda along with Sino-U.S. tensions.
  • Gold prices were trading lower on Friday as the U.S. dollar rose amidst higher 10-year U.S. treasury yields. Meanwhile, the dollar climbed against other major currencies. The U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies rose 0.07% to 89.70. Dollar-denominated assets such as gold are sensitive to moves in the dollar – a gain in the dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of foreign currency and thus decreases demand for the precious metal. As geopolitical tensions eased, prices of safe-haven assets such as gold slipped. U.S. President Donald Trump said he hoped the summit with North Korea would be successful, and he made no new fresh demands on trade at his meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe earlier this week.
  • Oil prices on Friday stayed near three-year highs reached earlier this week, with ongoing OPEC-led supply cuts and strong demand gradually drawing down excess supplies.Traders said there had been some profit-taking on Friday following Thursday's multi-year highs. There was also some caution after Russia's energy minister Alexander Novak was reported saying that a group of producers around the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as well as Russia may this year ease output restrictions. Producer cartel OPEC and its allies have been withholding production since 2017, helping push up prices. The deal to cut is currently scheduled to expire at the end of 2018. After a tepid start in 2017, the supply restraint had by this year started tightening markets. The tightness is also a result of strong oil demand. Beyond OPEC's supply management, crude prices have also been supported by an expectation that the United States will re-introduce sanctions on OPEC-member Iran "The first key geopolitical issue is the expiration of the current U.S. waiver of key sanctions against Iran," said Standard Chartered (LON:STAN) Bank in a note this week, referring to a deadline on May 12 when U.S. President Donald Trump will decide whether or not to re-impose sanctions. One factor that could start weighing on prices is rising U.S. production , which has jumped by a quarter since the middle of 2016 to 10.54 million barrels per day (bpd), making the United States the world's second-biggest producer of crude oil behind only Russia, which pumps almost 11 million bpd. Formerly skeptical investors are buying back into oil majors in the hope that upcoming results will mark a turning point for energy stocks which have failed to keep pace with a surge in crude prices. Oil stocks could begin to close that gap if results live up to lofty expectations, with Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) predicting the strongest free cash flow figures in a decade for the sector. Oil is the best-performing global asset this year, with Brent crude up 11.4 percent since January, but energy stocks have continued to lag the commodity. While Europe's oil and gas sector (SXEP) is the best-performing year-to-date, it still has a way to go to catch up with crude.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
20th April 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,350 1,357-1,363 1,366
Silver-XAG 17.40 17.70-18.20 18.60
Crude Oil 68.90-69.60 70.50 72.00-72.80
EURO/USD 1.2400-1.2450 1.2510 1.2600
GBP/USD 1.4080 1.4150-1.4210 1.4300
USD/JPY 107.50-108.00 108.70 109.60

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
20th April 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,340-1,331 1,320 1,311
Silver-XAG 17.00-16.40 16.00 15.60
Crude Oil 67.90 67.00 66.50-66.00
EURO/USD 1.2300 1.2250 1.2210-1.2150
GBP/USD 1.4025 1.3960-1.3900 1.3830
USD/JPY 107.00-106.70 106.00 105.50-104.90

Intra-Day Strategy (20th April 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1354.58/oz and low of US$1340.82/oz. Gold was down by 0.644% at US$1345.38/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1326) and breakage below will call for 1316-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1350-1374 keeping stop loss closing above 1374 and targeting 1350-1340-1331 and 1320-1311. Buy above 1340-1311 with risk below 1311, targeting 1357-1362-1370.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,340-1,331
S2     1,320
S3     1,311
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,350
R2     1,357-1,363
R3     1,366

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.773

Buy
20-DMA   1339.43 Sell
50-DMA  

1332.26

Buy
100-DMA   1321.24 Buy
200-DMA   1303.56 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   54.560 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   4.636 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$17.33/oz and low of US$17.08/oz. Silver settled up by 0.466% at US$17.23/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.77), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.00-15.00 targeting 17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.00-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.50-16.00-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.00-16.40
S2     16.00
S3     15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.40
R2     17.70-18.20
R3     18.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.755 Buy
20-DMA   16.69 Sell
50-DMA   16.62 Sell
100-DMA   16.67 Sell
200-DMA   16.78 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   86.08 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.146 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$69.50/bbl, intraday low of US$67.95/bbl and settled down by 0.902% to close at US$68.07/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 67.90-66.00 with stop loss at 66.00; targeting 67.90-66.50-66.00 and 65.20-64.50. Buy above 66.50-62.70 with risk daily closing below 62.70 and targeting 67.00-67.50-68.00 and 68.90-69.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     67.90
S2     67.00
S3     66.50-66.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     68.90-69.60
R2     70.50
R3     72.00-72.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   66.476 Sell
20-DMA   65.47 Buy
50-DMA   63.79 Buy
100-DMA   61.63 Buy
200-DMA   58.17 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   84.64 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.333 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.2328/EUR, high of US$1.2399/EUR and settled the day down by 0.226% to close at US$1.2344/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2350-1.2510 targeting 1.2210-1.2160 and 1.2090-1.2000 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2450. Buy above 1.2300-1.2000 with risk below 1.2000 targeting 1.2300-1.2350-1.2400 and 1.2450-1.2510.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2300
S2     1.2250
S3     1.2210-1.2150

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2400-1.2450
R2     1.2510
R3     1.2600

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.876 Buy
20-DMA   1.2334 Sell
50-DMA   1.2301 Sell
100-DMA   1.2190 Buy
200-DMA   1.1955 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   54.876 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.4067/GBP, high of US$1.4245/GBP and settled the day down by 0.838% to close at US$1.4081/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.4080-1.4300 with targets at 1.4025-1.3960 and 1.3900-1.3830. Buy above 1.4025-1.3830 with stop loss closing below 1.3830 targeting 1.4080-1.4150 and 1.4210-1.4300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.4025
S2     1.3960-1.3900
S3     1.3830

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.4080
R2     1.4150-1.4210
R3     1.4300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46,00

Buy
20-DMA   1.4127 Buy
50-DMA   1.4026 Buy
100-DMA   1.3852 Buy
200-DMA   1.3591 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   8.303 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY106.98/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.38/USD and settled the day up by 0.214% at JPY107.22/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (111.15), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 107.50-109.60 with risk above 109.60 targeting 104.90-104.40 and 103.90-103.10. Long positions above 104.90-103.10 with targets of 105.50-106.00-106.70 and 107.50-107.90 with stop below 104.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.00-106.70
S2     106.00
S3     105.50-104.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.50-108.00
R2     108.70
R3     109.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.137 Buy
20-DMA   106.85 Sell
50-DMA   107.24 Sell
100-DMA   108.44 Sell
200-DMA   109.63 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   43.315 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.1624 Sell

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