AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks dipped on Monday as investors braced for a bevy of earnings from the world’s largest corporations, while keeping a wary eye on U.S. bond yields as they approach peaks that have triggered market spasms in the past. Traders were also anxiously awaiting surveys on global manufacturing for April to see if economic softness in the first quarter was just a passing phase linked to poor weather and the Lunar New Year holidays. The first reading from Japan was tentatively upbeat with its PMI firming to 53.3 in April as output and domestic demand picked up. On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday the North Korean nuclear crisis was a long way from being resolved, striking a cautious note a day after the North pledged to end its nuclear tests. Investors are awaiting the European Central Bank’s policy meeting on Thursday amid talk policy makers feel it is still too early to announce a timetable for winding down its bond buying.
  • The dollar opened the week rising against other major currencies as supported by the steep rise in U.S. Treasury yields last Friday. This week’s currency market is occupied by a slew of economic data, as investors will see inflation data from Australia, Japan and the U.S. to look for cues .The dollar got a lift from yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries that inched up on Friday to 2.96%, the highest level since January 2014. The U.S. economic data to be reported this week includes existing home sales on Monday, new home sales on Tuesday, and first quarter GDP on Friday. While the trade tensions between China and the U.S. are still ongoing, geopolitical tensions related to North Korea may continue to ease. On Friday, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un said he might be open to putting nuclear tests on hold. The Bank of Japan’s is also set to deliver policy decision on Friday. The dollar traded near a two-week high against a basket of major currencies on Monday, bolstered by rising U.S. bond yields, while easing concerns over global political risks weighed on the safe haven yen. That move came after U.S. Treasury yields pushed higher last week, as Federal Reserve officials signaled further interest rate increases in 2018 based on evidence of steady U.S. growth. The yen tends to attract demand in times of economic uncertainty and market turmoil, and sell off when confidence returns. North Korea said on Saturday it would immediately suspend nuclear and missile tests, scrap its nuclear test site and pursue economic growth and peace instead. It made these comments ahead of planned summits with South Korea and the United States. Even traders who had been bearish on the dollar seem to be looking for opportunities to take long positions, with the greenback seen underpinned for now by higher U.S. bond yields, Innes added. Besides concerns over geopolitical risks, worries over U.S.-China trade tensions also appear to be waning, Innes said. On Sunday, China's commerce ministry said it would welcome U.S. officials to discuss trade and economic issues. On Friday, the euro had touched a two-week low at $1.2250 as investors trimmed long positions in the euro ahead of this week's European Central Bank policy meeting at which policymakers are largely expected to signal no change in policy. The pound fell last week on weaker-than-expected inflation and retail sales data and comments from BOE Governor Mark Carney on Thursday, which traders interpreted as the BOE's being less committed to raising rates in May due to recent "mixed" data.
  • Oil prices dipped on Monday morning in Asia, pulled down by a rising U.S. rig count which indicated further increases in the country’s crude output. U.S. drillers added five oil rigs drilling for new production in the week ending April 20, bringing the total count to 820, the highest since March 2015. The rising rig count points to further increases in U.S. crude production, which has already jumped by a quarter since mid-2016 to a record 10.54 million (bpd). Only Russia currently produces more, at almost 11 million bpd. The U.S. is expected to surpass Russia and become the world’s largest producer by 2019. Despite the dips in crude oil prices, overall markets remain well supported by healthy demand and ongoing supply cuts led by the (OPEC). OPEC, Russia and several other oil producers have been cutting output since January 2017 in an attempt to reduce the global oversupply and prop up prices. Results are closing in on the original target of the pact - reducing industrialized nations’ oil inventories to their five-year average. The pact has been extended to the end of 2018 and OPEC will meet in June to review policy. Saudi Arabia has indicated that it does not want the supply restraint to end. Over the past year, the kingdom has emerged as OPEC’s leading supporter of measures to boost prices. Oil prices have also been supported by the possibility that the U.S. will renew sanctions on Iran, which will be decided by May 12. This could further tighten global oil supplies as Iran is OPEC’s third-largest producer.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
23rd April 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,340 1,350 1,357-1,363
Silver-XAG 17.40 17.70-18.20 18.60
Crude Oil 68.90-69.60 70.50 72.00-72.80
EURO/USD 1.2300 1.2400-1.2450 1.2510
GBP/USD 1.4080 1.4150-1.4210 1.4300
USD/JPY 108.00 108.70 109.60-110.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
23rd April 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,331-1,320 1,311 1,306
Silver-XAG 17.00-16.40 16.00 15.60
Crude Oil 67.90 67.00 66.50-66.00
EURO/USD 1.2250 1.2210-1.2150 1.2090
GBP/USD 1.4025 1.3960-1.3900 1.3830
USD/JPY 107.50-107.00 106.70 106.00-105.50

Intra-Day Strategy (23rd April 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1346.21/oz and low of US$1334.86/oz. Gold was down by 0.743% at US$1335.44/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1326) and breakage below will call for 1316-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1340-1370 keeping stop loss closing above 1370 and targeting 1331-1320 and 1311-1306. Buy above 1330-1306 with risk below 1306, targeting 1340-1350-1357 and 1362-1370.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,331-1,320
S2     1,311
S3     1,306
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,340
R2     1,350
R3     1,357-1,363

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.363

Buy
20-DMA   1338.20 Sell
50-DMA  

1332.02

Buy
100-DMA   1321.33 Buy
200-DMA   1303.78 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   21.923 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   3.095 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$17.23/oz and low of US$17.02/oz. Silver settled down by 0.523% at US$17.11/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.77), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.00-15.00 targeting 17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.00-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.50-16.00-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.00-16.40
S2     16.00
S3     15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.40
R2     17.70-18.20
R3     18.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   61.499 Buy
20-DMA   16.73 Sell
50-DMA   16.64 Sell
100-DMA   16.67 Sell
200-DMA   16.78 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   75.65 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.146 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$68.59/bbl, intraday low of US$67.43/bbl and settled down by 0.176% to close at US$68.05/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 67.90-66.00 with stop loss at 66.00; targeting 67.90-66.50-66.00 and 65.20-64.50. Buy above 66.50-62.70 with risk daily closing below 62.70 and targeting 67.00-67.50-68.00 and 68.90-69.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     67.90
S2     67.00
S3     66.50-66.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     68.90-69.60
R2     70.50
R3     72.00-72.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   66.476 Sell
20-DMA   65.47 Buy
50-DMA   63.79 Buy
100-DMA   61.63 Buy
200-DMA   58.17 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   84.64 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.333 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.2249/EUR, high of US$1.2352/EUR and settled the day down by 0.453% to close at US$1.2287/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2300-1.2510 targeting 1.2250-1.2200-1.2160 and 1.2090-1.2000 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2510. Buy above 1.2250-1.2000 with risk below 1.2000 targeting 1.2300-1.2350-1.2400 and 1.2450-1.2510.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2250
S2     1.2210-1.2150
S3     1.2090

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2300
R2     1.2400-1.2450
R3     1.2510

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.143 Buy
20-DMA   1.2325 Sell
50-DMA   1.2301 Sell
100-DMA   1.2197 Buy
200-DMA   1.1966 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   23.039 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3997/GBP, high of US$1.4090/GBP and settled the day down by 0.525% to close at US$1.4007/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.4080-1.4300 with targets at 1.4025-1.3960 and 1.3900-1.3830. Buy above 1.4025-1.3830 with stop loss closing below 1.3830 targeting 1.4080-1.4150 and 1.4210-1.4300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.4025
S2     1.3960-1.3900
S3     1.3830

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.4080
R2     1.4150-1.4210
R3     1.4300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.829

Buy
20-DMA   1.4113 Buy
50-DMA   1.4024 Buy
100-DMA   1.3854 Buy
200-DMA   1.3594 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   4.293 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY107.34/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.34/USD and settled the day up by 0.279% at JPY107.65/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (111.15), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 107.50-109.60 with risk above 109.60 targeting 104.90-104.40 and 103.90-103.10. Long positions above 104.90-103.10 with targets of 105.50-106.00-106.70 and 107.50-107.90 with stop below 104.90.Neutral to Sell

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.50-107.00
S2     106.70
S3     106.00-105.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.00
R2     108.70
R3     109.60-110.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.858 Buy
20-DMA   107.01 Buy
50-DMA   107.28 Buy
100-DMA   108.39 Sell
200-DMA   109.57 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   76.816 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.2558 Sell

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