AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares extended gains on Monday as tensions in the Korean Peninsula eased and first-quarter earnings shone, although some investors were cautious about the outlook amid the backdrop of a simmering U.S.-China trade dispute. Liquidity was low on Monday with Japan, China and India on holiday and much of Asia closed on Tuesday. Analysts now expect earnings growth of 24.6 percent, more than double forecasts at the beginning of the year and thanks in large part to hefty tax cuts. But investors have grown increasingly jittery with the U.S. Federal Reserve signaling faster rate rises this year and the European Central Bank seen likely to end its generous bond-buying program soon. Global shares had a dream run in 2017 helped by the first synchronous world growth in decades coupled with easy monetary policies in most of the developed world. Investors will turn their focus to a torrent of data from the United States this week including consumer spending later in the day, the Fed's policy decision on Wednesday, and a jobs report on Friday. Separately, a delegation of U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and President Donald Trump's top economic and trade advisers - Larry Kudlow, Robert Lighthizer and Peter Navarro are all expected in China later this week for trade negotiations. The U.S.-China relationship had turned sour earlier this year when Trump announced stiff tariffs on some Chinese imports, setting off a tit-for-tat response from Beijing. Political tensions in the Korean Peninsula are also showing signs of easing, following a historic summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and South Korea's Moon Jae-in last week at which they vowed "complete denuclearization". Sterling was dealt another blow early in Asia when Britain's interior minister resigned - adding to the considerable troubles of Prime Minister Theresa May's government.
  • The dollar held steady against a basket of major currencies on Monday after pulling back slightly from a 3-1/2-month high last week, pressured by a decline in the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. Earlier this year, the correlation between U.S. yields and the dollar had broken down as investors focused more on trade frictions and geopolitical issues. Markets, however, have recently turned their attention back to interest rate plays as concerns over the U.S.-China trade dispute and tensions over North Korea's nuclear program eased, giving the greenback a leg up. Events and data coming up this week include the U.S. Federal Reserve's May 1-2 policy meeting, at which the central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, as well as U.S. jobs data due on Friday. Earlier this year, the correlation between U.S. yields and the dollar had broken down as investors focused more on trade frictions and geopolitical issues. Markets, however, have recently turned their attention back to interest rate plays as concerns over the U.S.-China trade dispute and tensions over North Korea's nuclear program eased, giving the greenback a leg up.
  • Gold prices fell on Monday as the dollar climbed after U.S. 10-year treasury yield pulled back to below the 3% level. Meanwhile, The dollar opened the week steady well above the 91 mark, but slipped from Friday’s high as The US 10-year yield fell 3 basis points on Friday to 2.957%, pulling back from a four-year high of 3.035% it hit on Wednesday. Dollar-denominated assets such as gold are sensitive to moves in the dollar – a gain in the dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of foreign currency and thus decreases demand for the precious metal. Geopolitical developments were also in focus as South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s spokesmen said on Sunday that North Korea would shut down its main nuclear test site in May. The news came after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un pledged “complete denuclearization” at a meeting with Moon on Friday.
  • Oil prices slid on Monday morning in Asia as a rising rig count in the U.S. indicated higher crude production to come. U.S. drillers added five oil rigs in the week to April 27, bringing the total count to 825, the highest level since March 2015. Increasing rigs is usually associated with increasing supply. U.S. crude production has also soared more than 25% since mid-2016 to a record 10.59 mn bpd. Only Russia currently produces more, at around 11 million bpd, which the U.S. is expected to surpass by 2019. Despite the small drop, oil prices held near more than three-year highs. Concerns that the U.S. will re-impose sanctions against Iran continue to prop up prices. U.S. President Donald Trump has until May 12 to decide whether to restore sanctions that were lifted after an agreement over Iran’s disputed nuclear program. Sanctions on the nation would likely result in a reduction of its oil exports, and as Iran is the third-largest producer in the OPEC, this could tighten global oil supplies. In addition, Venezuelan oil output has tumbled 40% in two years due to political and economic turmoil, and the European Union said earlier this month it could impose further sanctions on Venezuela, OPEC’s largest producer in Latin America, if it believes democracy is being undermined there. Geopolitical uncertainties remain the most significant driver in oil price sentiment, while a backdrop of OPEC-led supply cuts and strong global demand continues to support markets.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
30th April 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,340 1,340 1,350-1,357
Silver-XAG 17.00 17.40 17.70-18.20
Crude Oil 68.10-68.90 69.60 70.50-71.00
EURO/USD 1.2150-1.2200 1.2250 1.2300-1.2400
GBP/USD 1.3800 1.3910 1.4025-1.4080
USD/JPY 109.60-110.00 110.50 111.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
30th April 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,311 1,304 1,295-1,289
Silver-XAG 16.40-16.00 15.60 15.00
Crude Oil 67.50 67.00 66.50-66.00
EURO/USD 1.2090-1.2000 1.1970 1.1915
GBP/USD 1.3750 1.3700-1.3750 1.3605
USD/JPY 108.40 107.50-107.00 106.30

Intra-Day Strategy (30th April 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1325.16/oz and low of US$1315.29/oz. Gold was down by 0.467% at US$1323.44/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1326) and breakage below will call for 1316-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1331-1363 keeping stop loss closing above 1363 and targeting 1321-1311 and 1303-1295. Buy above 1321-1295 with risk below 1295, targeting 1331-1340 and 1350-1357.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,311
S2     1,304
S3     1,295-1,289
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,340
R2     1,340
R3     1,350-1,357

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.897

Buy
20-DMA   1332.63 Sell
50-DMA  

1330.42

Buy
100-DMA   1321.32 Buy
200-DMA   1304.46 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   16.385 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.817 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$16.53/oz and low of US$16.46/oz. Silver settled down by 0.121% at US$16.74/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.77), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.40-15.00 targeting 17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.00-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.50-16.00-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.40-16.00
S2     15.60
S3     15.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.00
R2     17.40
R3     17.70-18.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.942 Buy
20-DMA   16.63 Sell
50-DMA   16.61 Sell
100-DMA   16.66 Sell
200-DMA   16.77 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.746 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0327 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$68.28/bbl, intraday low of US$67.59/bbl and settled down by 0.293% to close at US$67.93/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 68.00-71.00 with stop loss at 71.00; targeting 67.50-66.50 and 66.00-65.20. Buy above 67.50-65.20 with risk daily closing below 65.00 and targeting 68.10-68.90-69.60 and 70.50-71.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     67.50
S2     67.00
S3     66.50-66.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     68.10-68.90
R2     69.60
R3     70.50-71.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.001 Sell
20-DMA   66.61 Buy
50-DMA   64.68 Buy
100-DMA   62.34 Buy
200-DMA   58.74 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   40.434 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.277 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.2054/EUR, high of US$1.2132/EUR and settled the day up by 0.231% to close at US$1.2130/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2150-1.2400 targeting 1.2090-1.2000 and 1.1970-1.1915 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2400. Buy above 1.2090-1.1915 with risk below 1.1915 targeting 1.2150-1.2250-1.2300 and 1.2350-1.2400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2090-1.2000
S2     1.1970
S3     1.1915

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2150-1.2200
R2     1.2250
R3     1.2300-1.2400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.944 Buy
20-DMA   1.2263 Sell
50-DMA   1.2277 Sell
100-DMA   1.2192 Buy
200-DMA   1.1972 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   11.395 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0041 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3746/GBP, high of US$1.3933/GBP and settled the day down by 0.948% to close at US$1.3779/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.4025-1.4300 with targets at 1.3900-1.3830 and 1.3750-1.3700. Buy above 1.3910-1.3830 and 1.3750-1.3700 with stop loss closing below 1.3830 targeting 1.4025-1.4080-1.4150 and 1.4210-1.4300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3750
S2     1.3700-1.3750
S3     1.3605

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3800
R2     1.3910
R3     1.4025-1.4080

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

32.944

Buy
20-DMA   1.4034 Buy
50-DMA   1.4002 Buy
100-DMA   1.3856 Buy
200-DMA   1.3606 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   7.456 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0036 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY108.96/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.52/USD and settled the day down by 0.222% at JPY109.03/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (111.15), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.60-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 108.40-107.50-107.00 and 106.70-106.00. Long positions above 108.00-106.00 with targets of 108.90-109.60 and 110.00-110.50 with stop below 104.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.40
S2     107.50-107.00
S3     106.30

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.60-110.00
R2     110.50
R3     111.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   66.245 Buy
20-DMA   107.90 Buy
50-DMA   107.64 Buy
100-DMA   108.47 Sell
200-DMA   109.56 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   66.286 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.664 Sell

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