Daily Market Lookup

• Asian shares stepped back on Friday while the dollar ran into some profit-taking after a strong week of gains as financial markets turned their attention to looming U.S. payrolls data for fresh catalysts. A pedestrian stands to look at an electronic board showing the stock market indices of various countries outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan, February 26, 2016. Yuya Shino Investors were cautious after a largely weak performance on Wall Street overnight as some disappointing earnings reports offset strong economic data, while bond yields slid after a surprising slowdown in euro zone inflation. The U.S. dollar weakened from a recent four-month peak against major currencies during a choppy session a day after the Federal Reserve ended a policy meeting with no change in rates and a less hawkish statement than investors had anticipated. Disappointing U.S. company earnings, upbeat data on factory orders and the U.S. trade balance as well as the underwhelming eurozone inflation data made for a challenging trading environment. The Fed’s reminder that its inflation target was symmetric was a clear negative for Treasury yields, and so the U.S. currency’s recovery was encouraging for dollar bulls, Callow said. The U.S. dollar had erased all its 2018 losses in the past two weeks on expectations the Fed will continue to raise rates, even as other major central banks around the world, including the European Central Bank, take longer to reduce stimulus. The dollar index .DXY has risen about 1 percent so far this week and is on track for a third straight weekly gain. The focus for markets will be on the U.S. jobs data due later in the global day, with the April report likely to underscore labor market strength. Non-farm payrolls probably increased by 192K jobs last month, according to a Reuters survey of economists, after rising only 103K in March. Investors were also keeping a close watch on U.S.-China trade talks, though analysts said they had little confidence that the U.S. delegation in Beijing, led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, will achieve any breakthrough on the tariff standoff between the world’s two biggest economies. Argentina’s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 300 basis points to 33.25 percent on Thursday, but the second steep rate increase in less than a week failed to stop the peso currency from plunging.
• U.S. job growth likely accelerated in April after a weather-related slowdown in the previous month, with the unemployment rate expected to drop to near a 17-1/2-year low of 4.0 percent. The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday is also expected to show steady wage growth, which would add to signs of building inflation pressures and likely keep the Federal Reserve on a gradual path of monetary policy tightening. The U.S. central bank on Wednesday left interest rates unchanged and said it expected annual inflation to run close to its “symmetric” 2 percent target over the medium term. Non-farm payrolls probably increased by 192,000 jobs last month, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Payrolls rose by 103,000 positions in March, the smallest gain in six months, which economists dismissed as payback after unseasonably mild weather boosted hiring by 326K jobs in February. The anticipated decline in the unemployment rate from 4.1 percent in March would put it at a level last seen in December 2000 and within striking distance of the Fed’s forecast for 3.8% by the end of this year.
• Oil prices held steady on Friday after shedding earlier gains, as market jitters kicked in over the prospect of geopolitical risks from possible new U.S. sanctions against Iran. Friday morning’s fluctuations came as investors sifted through the upcoming Iran sanction decision and an increasing U.S. crude inventory build for clues. Iran’s foreign minister said on Thursday U.S. demands to change its 2015 nuclear agreement with world powers were unacceptable, as a deadline set by President Donald Trump for Europeans to “fix” the deal loomed. European powers still want to hand Trump a plan to save the Iran nuclear deal next week. But they have also started work on protecting E.U.-Iranian business ties if the U.S. president makes good on a threat to withdraw, six sources told Reuters. Markets will remain skittish as the May 12 deadline to rectify the deal approaches, ANZ Research said in note. Iran resumed its role as a major oil exporter in January 2016 when international sanctions against Tehran were lifted in return for curbs on Iran’s nuclear program. Aside from security concerns, growing U.S. crude supplies are capping price gains. Surging production in the Permian basin has continued to outpace pipeline capacity, while local refining issues have exacerbated oversupply in the region, dealers told Reuters. Multi-year low spot market prices followed U.S. government data that showed a 6.2-million-barrel jump in crude inventories last week. The United States now produces more crude oil than top exporter Saudi Arabia.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1318.00/oz and low of US$1312.08/oz. Gold was up by 0.574% at US$1312.08/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1326) and breakage below will call for 1316-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1331-1363 keeping stop loss closing above 1363 and targeting 1321-1311 and 1303-1295. Buy above 1321-1295 with risk below 1295, targeting 1331-1340 and 1350-1357.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$16.57/oz and low of US$16.34/oz. Silver settled up by 0.305% at US$16.41/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.77), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.05-15.00 targeting 16.40-17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.40-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.00-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$68.48/bbl, intraday low of US$67.31/bbl and settled up by 1.169% to close at US$68.35/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 68.90-71.00 with stop loss at 71.00; targeting 68.10-67.50-66.50 and 66.00-65.20. Buy above 68.10-66.00 with risk daily closing below 66.00 and targeting 68.90-69.60 and 70.50-71.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1947/EUR, high of US$1.2008/EUR and settled the day up by 0.0167% to close at US$1.1987/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2000-1.2300 targeting 1.1970-1.1915 and 1.1850-1.1800 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2300. Buy above 1.1975-1.1800 with risk below 1.1800 targeting 1.2000-1.2090-1.2150 and 1.2200-1.2250.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3537/GBP, high of US$1.3628/GBP and settled the day up by 0.007% to close at US$1.3571/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3700-1.3910 with targets at 1.3605-1.3550 and 1.3500-1.3450. Buy above 1.3605-1.3450 with targets 1.3500-1.3550 and 1.3500-1.3450 with stop loss closing below 1.3450 targeting 1.3700-1.3750 and 1.3800-1.3910.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY108.92/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.88/USD and settled the day down by 0.582% at JPY109.18/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (111.15), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.00-112.00 with risk above 112.00 targeting 109.60-109.00-108.40 and 107.50-107.00-106.70. Long positions above 109.00-106.00 with targets of 109.60-110.00 and 110.50-111.00 with stop below 106.00.