AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks rose on Thursday, with energy shares leading the way as crude oil prices bolted higher after U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of a nuclear deal with Iran. Energy shares soared as crude oil prices reached 3-1/2-year highs, with investors betting the U.S. withdrawal from a nuclear agreement with Iran would increase tensions in the Middle East and curtail oil supply. Rising oil prices in turn pushed up U.S. Treasury yields by fanning inflation concerns. The 10-year Treasury note yield rose to a two-week high above the 3 percent threshold before pulling back to 2.982 percent . The euro crawled back to $1.1871 after slipping overnight to $1.1823, its lowest since late December. The dollar was steady at 109.690 yen after brushing an eight-day peak of 109.930. Investors in emerging markets, already facing financial uncertainty in countries such as Argentina and Turkey, received another jolt after a stunning election upset in Malaysia. Moody’s ratings agency said the country was now in uncharted territory after an alliance of opposition parties led by former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad shocked the ruling coalition Over the past day the Malaysian ringgit slid nearly 3 percent in the one-month non-deliverable forward market and the cost to insure against the country’s debt default has risen.
  • The dollar remained steady against other major currencies on Thursday in Asia as U.S. 10-Year Treasury yields climbed above 3% again on Wednesday. On Tuesday, U.S President Donald Trump said the U.S. will back out from the Iran nuclear deal, putting oil supply in uncertainty as Iran will face sanctions again. The move higher in oil has helped boost Treasury yields, with the 10 year rate back above 3%, a key psychological level the benchmark for the first time since late April. On Wednesday, the U.S. released Producer Price Index (PPI) that rose 0.2% in April following an increase of 0.3% in March, in line with market expectation. The CPI data will come later in the day. Chinese CPI numbers came in below expectations, with the month-on-month CPI printing at a -0.2% contraction, below the expected -0.1% forecast. China's Producer Price Index also missed the forecast mark, coming in at 3.4% against the expected 3.5%.
  • Gold prices edged up on Thursday while the dollar traded sideways. On Tuesday, U.S President Donald Trump said the U.S. will back out from the Iran nuclear deal, putting oil supply in uncertainty as Iran will face sanctions again. Asian stocks climbed on Thursday following a positive session on Wall Street, with energy shares leading the gain after U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out from the Iran nuclear deal. Crude oil prices reached 3-1/2 year highs following the news as investors bet the development would intensify tension in the Middle East and curtail oil supply, while an unexpected drop in stockpiles were also cited as tailwind for the West Texas oil.
  • Oil prices clocked up more multi-year highs on Thursday as traders adjusted to the prospects of renewed U.S. sanctions against major crude exporter Iran amid an already tightening market. The United States plans to impose new sanctions against Iran, which produces around 4 percent of global oil supplies, after abandoning an agreement reached in late 2015 which limited Tehran’s nuclear ambitions in exchange for removing U.S.-Europe sanctions. Oil prices rose sharply in response to the announced measures. In China, which is Iran’s single biggest buyer of oil, Shanghai crude futures posted their biggest intra-day rally since their launch in March, rising more than 4.5 percent to a dollar-denominated record above $75 per barrel. Analysts had little hope that opposition to the U.S. action would prevent sanctions from going ahead. U.S. bank Goldman Sachs said renewed sanctions and risks to supplies elsewhere, especially in Venezuela, meant there was a strong possibility of higher prices than the bank’s summer Brent forecast of $82.50 per barrel. The threat of new sanctions comes amid an oil market that has already been tightening due to strong demand, especially in Asia, and as top exporter Saudi Arabia and No.1 producer Russia have led efforts since 2017 to withhold oil supplies to prop up prices. U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.2 million barrels in the week to May 4, to 433.76 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), slightly above the 420 million barrels five-year average level. One factor that could prevent markets from tightening further is soaring U.S. oil output. Weekly U.S. crude oil production hit another record last week, climbing to 10.7 mn bpd. That’s up 27 percent since mid-2016 and means U.S. output is creeping ever closer to that of top producer Russia, which pumps around 11 million bpd.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
10th May 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,311-1,321 1,331 1,340-1,350
Silver-XAG 16.50-17.00 17.40 17.70-18.20
Crude Oil 71.50-71.90 72.80 73.50
EURO/USD 1.1915 1.1950 1.1975-1.2000
GBP/USD 1.3605 1.3700-1.3750 1.3830
USD/JPY 110.00-110.50 111.00 110.80

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
10th May 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,304 1,295 1,289-1,280
Silver-XAG 16.05-15.60 15.30 14.90
Crude Oil 71.00-70.50 70.00 69.60-68.90
EURO/USD 1.1850 1.1800-1.1730 1.1650
GBP/USD 1.3550-1.3500 1.3450 1.3400-1.3320
USD/JPY 109.60-109.00 108.40 107.50-107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (10th May 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1312.55/oz and low of US$1304.26/oz. Gold was up by 0.141% at US$1312.55/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1326) and breakage below will call for 1316-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1311-1340 keeping stop loss closing above 1340 and targeting 1303-1295 and 1289-1280. Buy above 1311-1280 with risk below 1280, targeting 1321-1331-1340 and 1350-1357.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,304
S2     1,295
S3     1,289-1,280
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,311-1,321
R2     1,331
R3     1,340-1,350

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.913

Buy
20-DMA   1320.36 Sell
50-DMA  

1324.77

Buy
100-DMA   1319.72 Buy
200-DMA   1305.07 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   61.571 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -5.945 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$16.60/oz and low of US$16.33/oz. Silver settled down by 0.182% at US$16.47/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.77), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.50-15.00 targeting 17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.00-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.50-16.00-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.05-15.60
S2     15.30
S3     14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.50-17.00
R2     17.40
R3     17.70-18.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.782 Buy
20-DMA   16.51 Sell
50-DMA   16.55 Sell
100-DMA   16.62 Sell
200-DMA   16.74 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   65.695 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0371 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$71.26/bbl, intraday low of US$69.77/bbl and settled up by 1.715% to close at US$71.17/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 71.50-73.50 with stop loss at 73.50; targeting 71.00-70.50 and 70.00-69.60-68.90. Buy above 71.00-68.90 with risk daily closing below 68.50 and targeting 71.50-72.00 and 72.80-73.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     71.00-70.50
S2     70.00
S3     69.60-68.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     71.50-71.90
R2     72.80
R3     73.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.196 Sell
20-DMA   68.78 Buy
50-DMA   66.14 Buy
100-DMA   63.51 Buy
200-DMA   59.65 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   92.565 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.494 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1821/EUR, high of US$1.1896/EUR and settled the day down by 0.118% to close at US$1.1821/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1850-1.2000 targeting 1.1800-1.1730 and 1.1650-1.1570 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2300. Buy above 1.1850-1.1650 with risk below 1.1570 targeting 1.1850-1.1915-1.1950 and 1.1975-1.2000-1.2090.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1850
S2     1.1800-1.1730
S3     1.1650

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1915
R2     1.1950
R3     1.1975-1.2000

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   24.150 Buy
20-DMA   1.2082 Sell
50-DMA   1.2186 Sell
100-DMA   1.2156 Buy
200-DMA   1.1971 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   24.150 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0097 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3485/GBP, high of US$1.3606/GBP and settled the day down by 0.014% to close at US$1.3543/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3550-1.3750 with targets at 1.3500-1.3450 and 1.3400-1.3320. Buy above 1.3500-1.3320 with targets 1.3550-1.3605 and 1.3700-1.3750 with stop loss closing below 1.3450.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3550-1.3500
S2     1.3450
S3     1.3400-1.3320

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3605
R2     1.3700-1.3750
R3     1.3830

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

27.589

Buy
20-DMA   1.3759 Buy
50-DMA   1.3874 Buy
100-DMA   1.3811 Buy
200-DMA   1.3603 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   43.698 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0014 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY109.34/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.34/USD and settled the day up by 0.027% at JPY109.11/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (111.15), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.00-112.00 with risk above 112.00 targeting 109.60-109.00-108.40 and 107.50-107.00-106.70. Long positions above 109.00-106.00 with targets of 109.60-110.00 and 110.50-111.00 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.60-109.00
S2     108.40
S3     107.50-107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.00-110.50
R2     111.00
R3     110.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.912 Buy
20-DMA   108.66 Buy
50-DMA   108.08 Buy
100-DMA   108.60 Sell
200-DMA   109.55 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   49.851 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.660 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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