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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks were steady on Friday amid caution over developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations, while the dollar perched near a five-month peak after the benchmark U.S. Treasury yield hit its highest in seven years. Wall Street ended slightly lower on Thursday as investors grappled with U.S.-China trade tensions after U.S. President Donald Trump said that China “has become very spoiled on trade”. But helping ease some of the tension, Beijing has offered Trump a package of proposed purchases of American goods and other measures aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit with China by some $200 billion a year, U.S. officials familiar with the proposal said. A second round of talks between senior Trump administration officials and their Chinese counterparts started on Thursday, focused on cutting China’s U.S. trade surplus and improving intellectual property protections. Reports this week that Italian populist parties likely to form the country’s next government may ask the European Central Bank for debt forgiveness have raised concerns about Italy abandoning fiscal discipline. Emerging market currencies have also lost ground against the dollar this week as the rise in U.S. yields showed little signs of slowing. The Turkish lira fell to a record low against the dollar this week, the Brazilian real plumbed a two-year low while Mexico’s peso has shed more than 5 percent this month. A retreat by Indonesia’s rupiah to a 2-1/2-year low prompted the central bank to tighten monetary policy on Thursday for the first time since 2014 to support the currency. Inflation concerns, strong U.S. economic indicators and worries over increasing debt supply have pushed Treasury yields higher this week.
  • Gold prices remained lower on Friday, held back by rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. Gold is denominated in the U.S. currency and is sensitive to moves in the dollar. Bullion becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies when the dollar rises. The rise in bond yields, along with positive economic data and rising inflation, has boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates and tighten monetary policy. The Fed raised rates in March and is expected to raise rates twice more, with some investors expecting a third hike. Expectations of higher interest rates tend to boost the dollar by making the currency more attractive to yield-seeking investors. Higher rates are a negative for gold as the precious metal, which does not pay interest, struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when rates rise.
  • Crude prices firmed on Friday as looming sanctions against Iran, the continuing economic crisis in Venezuela and strong demand continued to support prices. Both barrels hit their highest price since 2014 on Thursday, while Brent managed to briefly surpass the $80, only to pare gains by settlement. While making another move higher on Friday, U.S. crude and Brent were on track for weekly gains of around 1.3% and 3.2%, respectively. Crude has seen upward momentum since President Donald Trump announced on May 8 that the U.S. was pulling out of the Iranian nuclear deal and re-imposing sanctions. Market participants widely expect the move to lead to tighter global oil supplies as they make it more difficult for Iran to export oil. Iran, which is a major Middle East oil producer and member of the OPEC, resumed its role as a major oil exporter in January 2016 when international sanctions against Tehran were lifted in return for curbs on Iran's nuclear program. Also increasing concerns over supply, unrest was building in Venezuela ahead of presidential elections on Sunday that nations including the U.S., European Union, Mexico, Brazil or Colombia have labeled as “illegitimate”. Production in Venezuela plunged to 1.5 million barrels last month, its lowest level in decades due to its ongoing economic crisis. On the domestic front, oil prices were also supported by bullish U.S. crude inventory data showing both crude and gasoline supplies fell more than expected last week, according to the EIA on Wednesday. Inventories of U.S. crude fell by 1.404 million barrels for the week ended May 11, beating expectations for a draw of just 0.763 million barrels, while gasoline inventories fell by 3.790 million barrels, beating expectations for a fall of 1.421 million barrels.
  • Later on Friday, the weekly installment of drilling activity from Baker Hughes will provide investors with fresh insight into U.S. oil production and demand. Data last week showed the number of U.S. oil rigs rose for the sixth week in a row, pointing to a possible expansion in domestic output and fueling concerns that increased production stateside could eventually derail OPEC-led efforts to curb output and balance markets.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
18th May 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,295-1,305 1,321-1,331 1,321-1,331
Silver-XAG 16.50-17.00 17.40 17.70-18.20
Crude Oil 71.90-72.30 72.80 73.25-73.90
EURO/USD 1.1850-1.1915 1.1950 1.1975-1.2000
GBP/USD 1.3550-1.3605 1.3700 1.3750-1.3830
USD/JPY 111.00-111.50 112.00 112.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
18th May 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,289-1,280 1,274 1,265
Silver-XAG 16.05-15.60 15.30 14.90
Crude Oil 71.50-71.00 70.50 70.00-68.90
EURO/USD 1.1800-1.1730 1.1600 1.1600
GBP/USD 1.3450 1.3450 1.3400-1.3320
USD/JPY 110.50-110.00 109.60 109.00-108.40

Intra-Day Strategy (18th May 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1294.26/oz and low of US$1284.98/oz. Gold was up by 0.0193% at US$1290.74/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1326) and breakage below will call for 1316-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1295-1331 keeping stop loss closing above 1331 and targeting 1289-1280 and 1274-1265. Buy above 1289-1265 with risk below 1280, targeting 1295-1305-1311 and 11321-1331.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,289-1,280
S2     1,274
S3     1,265
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,295-1,305
R2     1,321-1,331
R3     1,321-1,331

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

32.8606

Buy
20-DMA   1310.30 Sell
50-DMA  

1319.34

Sell
100-DMA   1317.47 Sell
200-DMA   1304.78 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.260 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -9.540 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$16.47/oz and low of US$16.17/oz. Silver settled down by 0.738% at US$16.25/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.77), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.05-14.90 targeting 16.50-17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.50-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.00-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.05-15.60
S2     15.30
S3     14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.50-17.00
R2     17.40
R3     17.70-18.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.004 Buy
20-DMA   16.48 Sell
50-DMA   16.53 Sell
100-DMA   16.60 Sell
200-DMA   16.72 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   36.378 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0469 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$71.62/bbl, intraday low of US$71.21/bbl and settled up by 0.111% to close at US$71.66/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 71.90-73.90 with stop loss at 73.90; targeting 71.50-71.00-70.50 and 70.00-69.60-68.90. Buy above 71.50-68.90 with risk daily closing below 68.90 and targeting 72.00- 72.80 and 73.50-73.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     71.50-71.00
S2     70.50
S3     70.00-68.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     71.90-72.30
R2     72.80
R3     73.25-73.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   68.762 Sell
20-DMA   69.52 Buy
50-DMA   67.04 Buy
100-DMA   64.23 Buy
200-DMA   60.21 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   73.779 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.504 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1775/EUR, high of US$1.1836/EUR and settled the day down by 0.101% to close at US$1.1793/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1850-1.2100 targeting 1.1800-1.1730 and 1.1650-1.1600 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2150. Buy above 1.1800-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600 targeting 1.1850-1.1915-1.1975 and 1.2000-1.2070.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1800-1.1730
S2     1.1600
S3     1.1600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1850-1.1915
R2     1.1950
R3     1.1975-1.2000

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   29.562 Buy
20-DMA   1.2005 Sell
50-DMA   1.2132 Sell
100-DMA   1.2131 Buy
200-DMA   1.1967 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   27.104 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0101 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3474/GBP, high of US$1.3568/GBP and settled the day up by 0.103% to close at US$1.3513/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3550-1.3850 with targets at 1.3500-1.3450 and 1.3400-1.3320. Buy above 1.3500-1.3320 with targets 1.3550-1.3605 and 1.3700-1.3750 with stop loss closing below 1.3450.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3450
S2     1.3450
S3     1.3400-1.3320

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3550-1.3605
R2     1.3700
R3     1.3750-1.3830

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

32.873

Buy
20-DMA   1.3664 Buy
50-DMA   1.3809 Buy
100-DMA   1.3783 Buy
200-DMA   1.3599 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   36.206 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0133 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY110.06/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.85/USD and settled the day up by 0.326% at JPY110.74/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (111.15), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.00-112.90 with risk above 112.90 targeting 110.50-110.00-109.60 and 109.00-108.40. Long positions above 110.50-108.40 with targets of 109.60-110.00 and 110.50-111.00 with stop below 108.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.50-110.00
S2     109.60
S3     109.00-108.40

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.00-111.50
R2     112.00
R3     112.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   73.302 Buy Sell
20-DMA   109.45 Buy
50-DMA   108.59 Buy
100-DMA   108.80 Sell
200-DMA   109.59 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   95.627 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.765 Sell

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