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Daily Market Lookup

  • Stocks rose on Monday after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin declared the U.S.-China trade war “on hold” following their agreement to suspend the tariff threats that roiled global markets this year. Mnuchin and U.S. President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, said the agreement reached by Chinese and American negotiators on Saturday set up a framework for addressing trade imbalances in the future. The dollar opened the week rallying against the other major currencies in Asia, climbing to a fresh new high this year. Risk appetite revived as the trade war between the world’s two biggest economies is put “on hold”. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Sunday that the trade war with China is now put on hold. "We are putting the trade war on hold. Right now, we have agreed to put the tariffs on hold while we try to execute the framework," Mnuchin said. The dollar picked up as China and the U.S. agreed to halt imposing punitive import tariffs. Chinese and American negotiators set up a framework to address the trade imbalances. Japan is the world’s largest creditor nation and traders tend to assume Japanese investors would repatriate funds at times of crisis, thus pushing up the yen. The Japanese currency often weakens when investor confidence increases and their appetite for riskier assets strengthens. In equity markets, U.S. S&P mini futures (ESc1) rose 0.6 percent in Asian trade, after Mnuchin said on Sunday that the U.S. trade war with China is "on hold" after the world's largest economies agreed to drop their tariff threats while they work on a wider trade agreement. Mnuchin and U.S. President Donald Trump's top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, said the agreement reached by Chinese and American negotiators on Saturday sets up a framework for addressing trade imbalances in the future. Europe's single currency has dropped around seven cents in about a month amid a sharp dollar rally. Concerns have also mounted about the agreement betweenItaly's far-right League and 5-Star Movement on a governing accord that would slash taxes and ramp up welfare spending. A focus for markets this week is Wednesday's release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting. Investors will be watching the minutes for clues about the pace of the current tightening cycle.
  • Oil prices rose on Monday as markets reacted to news that China and the United States have put a looming trade war between the world’s two biggest economies “on hold”. The U.S. trade war with China is “on hold” after the world’s largest economies agreed to drop their tariff threats while they work on a wider trade agreement, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Sunday, giving global markets a lift in early trading on Monday. Still, crude prices were some way off the November 2014 highs reached last week as many traders and analysts say there is enough supply to meet demand despite ongoing production cuts led by the OPEC, plunging output in crisis-struck Venezuela and looming U.S. sanctions against major oil producer Iran. BP’s Chief Executive Bob Dudley told Reuters he expected a flood of U.S. shale and a possible reopening of OPEC taps to cool oil markets after crude rose above $80 a barrel last week. Dudley said he saw oil prices falling to between $50 and $65 a barrel due to surging shale output and OPEC’s capacity to boost production to replace potential falls in Iranian supplies due to sanctions. The U.S. oil rig count, an early indicator of future output, was at 844, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes. That was the same count as the week before, which marked the highest level since March 2015.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
21st May 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,289-1,295 1,305 1,311-1,321
Silver-XAG 16.50-17.00 17.40 17.70-18.20
Crude Oil 71.90-72.30 72.80 73.25-73.90
EURO/USD 1.1800 1.1850-1.1915 1.1950
GBP/USD 1.3450-1.3500 1.3550 1.3605-1.3700
USD/JPY 111.50-112.00 112.90 113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
21st May 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,280-1,274 1,265 1,259
Silver-XAG 16.05-15.60 15.30 14.90
Crude Oil 71.50-71.00 70.50 70.00-68.90
EURO/USD 1.1730-1.1660 1.1600 1.1550
GBP/USD 1.3400-1.3320 1.3260 1.3160
USD/JPY 111.00-110.50 110.00 109.60-109.00

Intra-Day Strategy (21st May 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

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Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1294.14/oz and low of US$1286.00/oz. Gold was up by 0.1789% at US$1293.00/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1326) and breakage below will call for 1316-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1290-1331 keeping stop loss closing above 1331 and targeting 1280-1274 and 1265-1259. Buy above 1289-1265 with risk below 1280, targeting 1295-1305-1311 and 11321-1331.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,280-1,274
S2     1,265
S3     1,259
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,289-1,295
R2     1,305
R3     1,311-1,321

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

32.8606

Buy
20-DMA   1310.30 Sell
50-DMA  

1319.34

Sell
100-DMA   1317.47 Sell
200-DMA   1304.78 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.260 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -9.540 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$16.45/oz and low of US$16.34/oz. Silver settled up by 0.244% at US$16.43/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.77), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.05-14.90 targeting 16.50-17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.50-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.00-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.05-15.60
S2     15.30
S3     14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.50-17.00
R2     17.40
R3     17.70-18.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.004 Buy
20-DMA   16.48 Sell
50-DMA   16.53 Sell
100-DMA   16.60 Sell
200-DMA   16.72 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   36.378 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0469 Buy

Oil - WTI

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Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$71.82/bbl, intraday low of US$71.05/bbl and settled down by 0.307% to close at US$71.44/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 71.90-73.90 with stop loss at 73.90; targeting 71.50-71.00-70.50 and 70.00-69.60-68.90. Buy above 71.50-68.90 with risk daily closing below 68.90 and targeting 72.00- 72.80 and 73.50-73.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     71.50-71.00
S2     70.50
S3     70.00-68.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     71.90-72.30
R2     72.80
R3     73.25-73.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   68.2716 Sell
20-DMA   69.90 Buy
50-DMA   67.40 Buy
100-DMA   64.52 Buy
200-DMA   60.44 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   66.2716 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.504 Sell

EUR/USD

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EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1749/EUR, high of US$1.1821/EUR and settled the day down by 0.184% to close at US$1.1770/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1800-1.1950 targeting 1.1730-1.1650 and 1.1600-1.1550 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1950. Buy above 1.1730-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600 targeting 1.1800-1.1850-1.1915 and 1.1975-1.2000.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1730-1.1660
S2     1.1600
S3     1.1550

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1800
R2     1.1850-1.1915
R3     1.1950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   29.562 Buy
20-DMA   1.2005 Sell
50-DMA   1.2132 Sell
100-DMA   1.2131 Buy
200-DMA   1.1967 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   27.104 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0101 Buy

GBP/USD

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GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3454/GBP, high of US$1.3527/GBP and settled the day up by 0.325% to close at US$1.3468/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3450-1.3700 with targets at 1.3400-1.3320 and 1.3260-1.3160. Buy above 1.3400-1.3160 with targets 1.3450-1.3550-1.3605 and 1.3700-1.3750 with stop loss closing below 1.3160.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3400-1.3320
S2     1.3260
S3     1.3160

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3450-1.3500
R2     1.3550
R3     1.3605-1.3700

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

25.501

Buy
20-DMA   1.3662 Buy
50-DMA   1.3780 Buy
100-DMA   1.3769 Buy
200-DMA   1.3596 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   17.773 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0134 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY110.07/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.07/USD and settled the day up by 0.0180% at JPY110.75/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (111.15), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.00-112.90 with risk above 112.90 targeting 110.50-110.00-109.60 and 109.00-108.40. Long positions above 110.50-108.40 with targets of 109.60-110.00 and 110.50-111.00 with stop below 108.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.00-110.50
S2     110.00
S3     109.60-109.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.50-112.00
R2     112.90
R3     113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   73.302 Buy
20-DMA   109.45 Buy
50-DMA   108.59 Buy
100-DMA   108.80 Sell
200-DMA   109.59 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   95.627 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.765 Sell

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