AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar rose against the other major currencies in Asia in late morning trade Friday, with the U.S. dollar index testing the 94 level. The market appeared to take in stride news that U.S. President Donald Trump decided to cancel a planned summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. The greenback was not hit by Trump's decision to call off the June 12 summit, a move that may reignate geopolitical tensions in the region. The White House released a letter by Trump to Kim, in which the U.S. president regarding the cancelled summit. Trump cited “tremendous anger and open hostility” in recent statements from Pyongyang and called the outcome a setback for both North Korea and the world.
  • The yen stepped back from a two-week high against the dollar on Friday when North Korea said it was open to resolving issues with the United States after President Donald Trump called off a June summit with its leader, Kim Jong Un. Although the yen and the safe-haven Swiss franc had gained on Thursday in response to heightened worries over global politics, traders were quick to lock in gains ahead of a long weekend in the United States and Britain. It had hit a two-week high of 108.955 per dollar overnight in a knee-jerk reaction after President Donald Trump called off the planned summit with Kim. Trump blamed the cancellation on what he said was Pyongyang’s “open hostility,” and warned that the U.S. military was ready in the event of any reckless acts by North Korea. The dollar had been rising for weeks on its widening yield advantage but lost some of its momentum after minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting published on Wednesday were seen as more dovish than markets had expected. The euro edged down 0.1 percent to $1.1710, and was on track for a sixth consecutive week of falling against the dollar, hobbled by worries over a deepening economic slowdown in the currency bloc. Six straight weeks of losses would be its longest such streak since January 2015. Also weighing on the euro was the insistence of the far-right League, a partner in Italy’s planned coalition government, that eurosceptic economist Paolo Savona be appointed economy minister.
  • Gold prices slipped on Friday as the dollar firmed against the other major currencies in Asia in late morning trade Friday, with the U.S. dollar index testing the 94 level. The greenback was not hit by Trump's decision to call off the June 12 summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, a move that may reignite geopolitical tensions in the region. The White House released a letter by Trump to Kim, in which the U.S. president regarding the cancelled summit. Trump cited “tremendous anger and open hostility” in recent statements from Pyongyang and called the outcome a setback for both North Korea and the world. Dollar-denominated assets such as gold are sensitive to moves in the dollar – a gain in the dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of foreign currency and thus decreases demand for the precious metal.
  • Oil prices edged lower on Friday morning in Asia as Russia hinted it may increase output. The OPEC as well as a group of non-OPEC producers led by Russia started withholding output in 2017 to boost oil prices and clear a supply glut. The group had agreed to curb their output by about 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd). But Russia, in particular, has shown eagerness to end the production cuts, with energy minister Alexander Novak saying on Thursday that restrictions on oil production could be eased “softly” if OPEC and non-OPEC countries see the oil market balancing in June. OPEC and some non-OPEC major oil producers are scheduled to meet in Vienna on June 22. Any signs that the group may be heading towards an early exit from the production cut agreement would weigh on prices. While Russia and OPEC benefit from higher oil prices, which have risen by almost 20% since the end of last year, their voluntary production cuts have allowed other producers to ramp up output and gain market share. U.S. crude oil production has risen by more than a quarter in the last two years, to 10.73 million bpd. Only Russia produces more, at around 11 million bpd. Geopolitical risks remain the largest factor keeping oil markets on edge. U.S. sanctions against Iran, which produces 4% of global oil supplies, will likely cause shortages later this year when trade restrictions take effect. Production in Venezuela has also plunged to its lowest level in decades due to its ongoing economic crisis. In the face of these worries, OPEC and Russia could step up production as soon as June to make up for the reduced supply.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
25th May 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,305 1,311-1,321 1,330
Silver-XAG 17.00 17.40 17.70-18.20
Crude Oil 71.00-71.50 71.90 72.80-73.25
EURO/USD 1.1700-1.1800 1.1850 1.1915-1.1950
GBP/USD 1.3400 1.3450-1.3500 1.3550
USD/JPY 110.00-110.50 111.00 111.50-112.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
25th May 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,295 1,280-1,274 1,265
Silver-XAG 16.50 16.05-15.60 15.30
Crude Oil 70.00-69.20 68.00 66.50
EURO/USD 1.1660 1.1600 1.1550-1.1450
GBP/USD 1.3320-1.3260 1.3160 1.3100
USD/JPY 109.60-109.00 107.60 107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (25th May 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1306.54/oz and low of US$1292.68/oz. Gold was up by 0.866% at US$1304.66/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1326) and breakage below will call for 1316-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1290-1331 keeping stop loss closing above 1331 and targeting 1280-1274 and 1265-1259. Buy above 1289-1265 with risk below 1280, targeting 1295-1305-1311 and 11321-1331.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,295
S2     1,280-1,274
S3     1,265
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,305
R2     1,311-1,321
R3     1,330

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.816

Buy
20-DMA   1305.43 Sell
50-DMA  

1315.40

Sell
100-DMA   1315.57 Sell
200-DMA   1304.42 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   82.662 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -7.759 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$16.67/oz and low of US$16.39/oz. Silver settled up by 1.339% at US$16.65/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.77), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.05-14.90 targeting 16.50-17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.50-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.00-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.50
S2     16.05-15.60
S3     15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.00
R2     17.40
R3     17.70-18.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.075 Buy
20-DMA   16.50 Sell
50-DMA   16.53 Sell
100-DMA   16.59 Sell
200-DMA   16.71 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   72.029 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0047 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$71.88/bbl, intraday low of US$70.48/bbl and settled down by 1.672% to close at US$70.57/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 71.00-73.25 with stop loss at 73.25; targeting 70.00-69.20 and 68.00. Buy above 71.50-68.90 with risk daily closing below 68.90 and targeting 72.00- 72.80 and 73.50-73.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     70.00-69.20
S2     68.00
S3     66.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     71.00-71.50
R2     71.90
R3     72.80-73.25

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.756 Sell
20-DMA   70.34 Buy
50-DMA   67.97 Buy
100-DMA   65.05 Buy
200-DMA   60.87 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.835 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.137 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1690/EUR, high of US$1.1749/EUR and settled the day up by 0.205% to close at US$1.1718/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1700-1.1950 targeting 1.1600-1.1650 and 1.1600-1.1550 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1950. Buy above 1.1660-1.1450 with risk below 1.1600 targeting 1.1700-1.1800-1.1850 and 1.1915-1.1975.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1660
S2     1.1600
S3     1.1550-1.1450

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1700-1.1800
R2     1.1850
R3     1.1915-1.1950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   25.940 Buy
20-DMA   1.1870 Sell
50-DMA   1.20361.1870 Sell
100-DMA   1.2080 Buy
200-DMA   1.1952 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   17.453 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0121 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3333/GBP, high of US$1.3420/GBP and settled the day up by 0.262% to close at US$1.3377/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3450-1.3700 with targets at 1.3400-1.3320 and 1.3260-1.3160. Buy above 1.3400-1.3160 with targets 1.3450-1.3550-1.3605 and 1.3700-1.3750 with stop loss closing below 1.3160.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3320-1.3260
S2     1.3160
S3     1.3100

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3400
R2     1.3450-1.3500
R3     1.3550

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

25.025

Buy
20-DMA   1.3558 Buy
50-DMA   1.3735 Buy
100-DMA   1.3746 Buy
200-DMA   1.3589 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   21.001 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0138 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY109.55/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.08/USD and settled the day down by 0.745% at JPY109.24/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.00-112.90 with risk above 112.90 targeting 109.60-109.00 and 108.40-109.00. Long positions above 109.60-108.40 with targets of 110.00 110.50-111.00 with stop below 108.40.Neutral to Sell

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.60-109.00
S2     107.60
S3     107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.00-110.50
R2     111.00
R3     111.50-112.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.375 Buy
20-DMA   109.67 Buy
50-DMA   108.85 Buy
100-DMA   108.92 Sell
200-DMA   109.61 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   19.559 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.502 Sell

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