AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • U.S. oil futures sank to six-week lows on Monday on expectations that major producers may raise output, while Asian stocks and U.S. share futures gained on signs the United States and North Korea were still working towards holding a summit. The euro bounced back from a 6-1/2-month low after the Italian president rejected a Eurosceptic as a key economy minister. But his move was seen as triggering a possible constitutional crisis and opening the prospect of fresh elections, keeping the single currency fragile. A return to the oil production levels that were in place in October 2016, the baseline for the current deal to cut output, is one of the options for easing curbs, Russia’s energy minister said on Saturday. His comments came after the energy ministers of Russia and Saudi Arabia met to review the terms of global oil supply, ahead of a key OPEC meeting in Vienna next month. President Donald Trump said on Sunday a U.S. team had arrived in North Korea to prepare for a proposed summit between him and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, which Trump pulled out of last week before reconsidering. Italian president Sergio Mattarella rejected a Eurosceptic pick for the key economy ministry by the two anti-establishment parties aiming to form a coalition government, the 5-Star Movement and the League. While his decision allayed immediate concerns of having a Eurosceptic minister in the euro zone’s third-largest economy, his move created bigger uncertainties as 5-Star leader Luigi Di Maio, whose party won the most seats at an inconclusive March 4 vote, demanded that parliament impeach Mattarella.
  • The dollar opened the week by sliding against other Asian currencies, giving up gains from last week. After rising to this year’s high of 94.21 on Friday, the U.S. dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, fell during Monday morning trade in Asia as the market dealt with the developments over a U.S.-North Korea summit. Geopolitics continued to be the directional driver for the dollar and the yen. U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to confirm his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is now back on track, just a few days after suddenly canceled a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jung Un last week. Meanwhile, Kim Jong Un agreed to hold talks with the U.S., according to South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who met with Kim on Saturday after the North Korean leader requested a casual meeting. After the initial reaction to the shift in geopolitical concerns, dollar traders are also watching closely economic data due this week in the U.S., which includes GDP growth figures on Wednesday and the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday.
  • Gold prices eased on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to confirm his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is now back on track. The tweet came just three days after he abruptly called off the historic meeting last week. Meanwhile, Kim Jong Un agreed to hold talks with the U.S., according to South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who met with Kim on Saturday after the North Korean leader requested a casual meeting. After rising to this year’s high of 94.21 on Friday, the U.S. dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, fell during Monday morning trade in Asia as the market dealt with the developments over a U.S.-North Korea summit.
  • Oil prices fell on Monday morning in Asia as the market eyed an increase in output from the world’s three top crude producers, Russia, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. The OPEC as well as a group of non-OPEC producers led by Russia started withholding output in 2017 to boost oil prices and clear a supply glut. The group had agreed to curb their output by about 1.8 mn bpd. Prices have soared since the start of the cuts, with Brent breaking through $80 per barrel earlier in May. The pace of the recent rise in oil prices has sparked a debate among investors on whether this poses downside risks to global growth. Russia, in particular, has shown eagerness to end the production cuts, with energy minister Alexander Novak saying last Thursday that restrictions on oil production could be eased “softly” if OPEC and non-OPEC countries see the oil market balancing in June. U.S. sanctions against Iran, which produces 4% of global oil supplies, will likely cause shortages later this year when trade restrictions take effect. Production in Venezuela has also plunged to its lowest level in decades due to its ongoing economic crisis. To address potential supply shortfalls, Saudi Arabia, de-facto leader of OPEC, as well as Russia said on Friday they were discussing raising oil production in the second-half of the year by some 1 million bpd. Meanwhile, surging U.S. crude production also showed no sign of abating as drillers continue to expand their search for new oil fields to exploit. U.S. energy companies added 15 rigs looking for new oil in the week ending May 25, bringing the rig-count to 859, the highest level since 2015, in a strong indicator that American crude production will continue to rise. U.S. crude oil production has risen by more than a quarter in the last two years, to 10.73 million bpd, inching ever closer to top producer Russia’s output of around 11 million bpd.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
28th May 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,305 1,311-1,321 1,330
Silver-XAG 17.00 17.40 17.70-18.20
Crude Oil 67.00-68.10 69.30 70.00
EURO/USD 1.1700-1.1800 1.1850 1.1915-1.1950
GBP/USD 1.3400 1.3450-1.3500 1.3550
USD/JPY 110.00-110.50 111.00 111.50-112.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
28th May 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,295 1,280-1,274 1,265
Silver-XAG 16.31 16.00-15.60 15.30
Crude Oil 65.70-65.00 64.20 63.50
EURO/USD 1.1660 1.1600 1.1550-1.1450
GBP/USD 1.3320-1.3260 1.3160 1.3100
USD/JPY 109.00 107.60-107.00 106.60

Intra-Day Strategy (28th May 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1307.71/oz and low of US$1299.79/oz. Gold was up by 0.226% at US$1301.46/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1326) and breakage below will call for 1316-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1300-1331 keeping stop loss closing above 1331 and targeting 1290-1280-1274 and 1265-1259. Buy above 1289-1265 with risk below 1280, targeting 1295-1305-1311 and 11321-1331.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,295
S2     1,280-1,274
S3     1,265
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,305
R2     1,311-1,321
R3     1,330

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

40.836

Buy
20-DMA   1304.44 Sell
50-DMA  

1314.60

Sell
100-DMA   1315.16 Sell
200-DMA   1304.33 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   71.294 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -7.634 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$16.70/oz and low of US$16.47/oz. Silver settled down by 0.841% at US$16.49/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.77), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.31-14.90 targeting 16.50-17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.50-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.00-15.60 and 15.00-14.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.31
S2     16.00-15.60
S3     15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.00
R2     17.40
R3     17.70-18.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.997 Buy
20-DMA   16.49 Sell
50-DMA   16.52 Sell
100-DMA   16.59 Sell
200-DMA   16.71 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   61.416 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0013 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$70.71/bbl, intraday low of US$67.36/bbl and settled down by 4.434% to close at US$67.46/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 67.00-68.10 with stop loss at 68.10; targeting 65.70-65.00 and 64.20-63.50. Buy above 65.70-63.50 with risk daily closing below 63.50 and targeting 67.00-68.10 and 69.30-70.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     65.70-65.00
S2     64.20
S3     63.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     67.00-68.10
R2     69.30
R3     70.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.067 Sell
20-DMA   69.74 Buy
50-DMA   67.81 Buy
100-DMA   65.02 Buy
200-DMA   60.89 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   7.3007 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.532 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1644/EUR, high of US$1.1732/EUR and settled the day down by 0.588% to close at US$1.1649/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1700-1.1950 targeting 1.1600-1.1650 and 1.1600-1.1550 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1950. Buy above 1.1660-1.1450 with risk below 1.1600 targeting 1.1700-1.1800-1.1850 and 1.1915-1.1975.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1660
S2     1.1600
S3     1.1550-1.1450

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1700-1.1800
R2     1.1850
R3     1.1915-1.1950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   25.940 Buy
20-DMA   1.1870 Sell
50-DMA   1.2036 Sell
100-DMA   1.2080 Buy
200-DMA   1.1952 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   17.453 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0121 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3292/GBP, high of US$1.3387/GBP and settled the day down by 0.605% to close at US$1.3295/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3450-1.3700 with targets at 1.3400-1.3320 and 1.3260-1.3160. Buy above 1.3400-1.3160 with targets 1.3450-1.3550-1.3605 and 1.3700-1.3750 with stop loss closing below 1.3160.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3320-1.3260
S2     1.3160
S3     1.3100

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3400
R2     1.3450-1.3500
R3     1.3550

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

28.033

Buy
20-DMA   1.3515 Buy
50-DMA   1.3703 Buy
100-DMA   1.3729 Buy
200-DMA   1.3584 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.463 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0140 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY109.05/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.73/USD and settled the day up by 0.128% at JPY109.38/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.00-112.90 with risk above 112.90 targeting 109.60-109.00 and 108.40-109.00. Long positions above 109.60-108.40 with targets of 110.00 110.50-111.00 with stop below 108.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.00
S2     107.60-107.00
S3     106.60

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.00-110.50
R2     111.00
R3     111.50-112.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.375 Buy
20-DMA   109.67 Buy
50-DMA   108.85 Buy
100-DMA   108.92 Sell
200-DMA   109.61 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   19.559 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.502 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING