AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asia stocks shook off initial modest losses and edged up on Monday ahead of an historic U.S.-North Korea summit that investors hope might pave the way to ending a nuclear stand-off on the Korean peninsula. Stocks wobbled in early trade after U.S. President Donald Trump raised fresh fears of a global trade war when he backed out of a joint Group of Seven communique over the weekend, in a blow to the group's efforts to show a united front. After the G7 meeting, the U.S. president withdrew his support for its communique and blasted Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau amid a spat over import tariffs. Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will have an unprecedented meeting on Tuesday in Singapore, possibly laying the groundwork for ending a nuclear stand-off between the old foes. Some analysts also raised the prospect of international sanctions against North Korea being lifted. Investors also got prepared for a raft of other key events. The Fed holds a two-day meeting starting on June 12, and it is widely expected to raise interest rates for the second time this year. The focus is on whether the central bank will hint at raising rates a total of four times in 2018. The ECB meets on June 14, when it could signal intentions to start unwinding its massive bond purchasing program. Also, the Bank of Japan on Friday concludes a two-day meeting at which it is widely expected to keep its loose monetary policy intact.
  • The dollar slid while safe-haven yen edged higher in Monday morning trade in Asia after U.S. President Donald Trump left the G7 Summit early and later tweeted that the U.S. was backing out of the joint communique. Investors are looking ahead to the Trump-Kim meeting later this week and policy reviews by the world’s three major central banks. The Group of Seven (G7) summit held in Quebec, Canada ended with Trump’s early exit and a broken consensus with the other leaders. He later tweeted that he was backing out of the joint communique and lashed out against Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Trump has now arrived in Singapore, where his historical meeting with North Korean’s leader Kim Jong Un is scheduled on Tuesday. Additionally, central banks in the U.S., the euro zone and Japan will hold their policy reviews later this week. With the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates at the meeting this week, investors are focusing on whether there will be a third and fourth hike in 2018.
  • Oil prices fell on Monday, pulled down by rising Russian production and U.S. drilling activity creeping to its highest in more than three years. However, many analysts were looking less at markets and more at politics as U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un have both arrived in Singapore for a summit on Tuesday that may lay the groundwork for ending a nuclear stand-off between the old foes. Back in oil markets, analysts expect surging U.S. output to start offsetting efforts led by the OPEC to withhold production, which have been in place since early 2017 and have pushed up prices significantly in the first half of this year. Prices were weighed down by another rise in the number of rigs drilling for new oil production in the United States. The rig count inched up by one to its highest since March, 2015 at 862, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes on Friday. That implies U.S. crude output, already at a record high of 10.8 million barrels per day (bpd), will climb further. Going into next year, "oil fundamentals are expected to weaken in 2019 on the back of stronger-than-expected non-OPEC supply, but also the potential release of barrels from OPEC as the joint accord between OPEC and non-OPEC is unlikely to stay in place," JPMorgan said. OPEC, together with some non-OPEC producers including Russia started withholding output in 2017 to end a global supply overhang and prop up prices. OPEC and its partners are due to meet on June 22 at the cartel's headquarters in Vienna, Austria, to discuss policy. Meanwhile, Russian news agency Interfax reported on Saturday that Russia's oil production, the world's biggest, had risen to 11.1 million bpd in early June, up from slightly below 11 million bpd for most of May, and well above its target output of under 11 million bpd as part of the deal. Beyond changes in the supply-side, strong demand has been supportive of oil prices. Overseas crude purchases by top importer China remain above 9 million bpd, despite a recent drop from records Judging by car sales, demand will continue to grow, with China's May sales of new automobiles standing at 2.29 million, up 9.6 percent from the same month last year, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). In India, Asia's No.2 buyer, May fuel demand rose by 3.4 percent compared with the same month last year, data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the oil ministry showed on Monday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
11th June 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1300-1,305 1,311 1,321-1,330
Silver-XAG 17.00 17.40 17.70-18.20
Crude Oil 65.70-66.30 67.00 68.10-69.00
EURO/USD 1.1850-1.1930 1.2010 1.2090
GBP/USD 1.3450-1.3500 1.3550 1.3610
USD/JPY 110.50 111.00 111.50-112.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
11th June 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,290 1,280-1,274 1,265
Silver-XAG 16.60-16.31 16.00 15.60-15.30
Crude Oil 65.00-64.50 63.00 61.80
EURO/USD 1.1800 1.1770-1.1700 1.1650
GBP/USD 1.3400 1.3300-1.3260 1.3160
USD/JPY 109.90 109.00-108.50 107.60

Intra-Day Strategy (11th June 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1300.50/oz and low of US$1293.12/oz. Gold was down by 0.0015% at US$1298.94/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1326) and breakage below will call for 1316-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1300-1331 keeping stop loss closing above 1331 and targeting 1290-1280-1274 and 1265-1259. Buy above 1289-1265 with risk below 1280, targeting 1295-1305-1311 and 11321-1331.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,290
S2     1,280-1,274
S3     1,265
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1300-1,305
R2     1,311
R3     1,321-1,330

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.341

Buy
20-DMA   1300.52 Sell
50-DMA  

1310.27

Sell
100-DMA   1312.78 Sell
200-DMA   1303.83 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   35.391 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -5.478 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$16.81/oz and low of US$16.60/oz. Silver settled up by 0.059% at US$16.77/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.77), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.60-14.90 targeting 17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.00-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.60-16.30-16.00 and 15.60-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.60-16.31
S2     16.00
S3     15.60-15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.00
R2     17.40
R3     17.70-18.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   63.673 Buy
20-DMA   16.56 Sell
50-DMA   16.54 Sell
100-DMA   16.58 Sell
200-DMA   16.69 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   79.807 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0055 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$66.17/bbl, intraday low of US$65.10/bbl and settled down by 0.636% to close at US$65.52/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 65.70-69.00 with stop loss at 69.00; targeting 65.20-64.50 and 63.00-61.80. Buy above 65.00-61.80 with risk daily closing below 61.70 and targeting 65.70-66.30-67.00 and 68.10-69.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     65.00-64.50
S2     63.00
S3     61.80

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     65.70-66.30
R2     67.00
R3     68.10-69.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.595 Sell
20-DMA   67.88 Buy
50-DMA   67.40 Buy
100-DMA   65.17 Buy
200-DMA   61.25 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   24.276 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.824 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1726/EUR, high of US$1.1809/EUR and settled the day down by 0.237% to close at US$1.1769/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1725-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450 targeting 1.1850- 1.1930 and 1.2010-1.2090-. Sell below 1.1850-1.2090 targeting 1.1800-1.1770 and 1.1725-1.1600-1.1550 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2010.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1800
S2     1.1770-1.1700
S3     1.1650

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1850-1.1930
R2     1.2010
R3     1.2090

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.129 Buy
20-DMA   1.1772 Sell
50-DMA   1.1920 Sell
100-DMA   1.2006 Buy
200-DMA   1.1925 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   76.3589 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0076 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3353/GBP, high of US$1.3438/GBP and settled the day down by 0.096% to close at US$1.3406/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3400-1.3700 with targets at 1.3320-1.3260 and 1.3160-1.3100. Buy above 1.3400-1.3160 with targets 1.3450-1.3550-1.3605 and 1.3700-1.3750 with stop loss closing below 1.3160.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3400
S2     1.3300-1.3260
S3     1.3160

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3450-1.3500
R2     1.3550
R3     1.3610

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.263

Buy
20-DMA   1.3425 Buy
50-DMA   1.3604 Buy
100-DMA   1.3672 Buy
200-DMA   1.3565 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.496 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0088 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY109.19/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.84/USD and settled the day down by 0.127% at JPY109.54/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.50-112.90 with risk above 112.90 targeting 109.60-109.00-108.40 and 107.60-107.00. Long positions above 109.60-106.60 with targets of 110.50-111.00 and 111.50-112.00 with stop below 106.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.90
S2     109.00-108.50
S3     107.60

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.50
R2     111.00
R3     111.50-112.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.242 Buy
20-DMA   109.56 Buy
50-DMA   109.01 Buy
100-DMA   108.99 Sell
200-DMA   109.59 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   94.043 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.194 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING