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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares fell on Wednesday as investors braced for a Federal Reserve policy decision later in the day and any clues it might give on future rate hikes that could alter the course of global economic growth and corporate earnings. Trade frictions between the United States and China were also back on radar ahead of Friday, when Washington has said it will release a list of some $50 billion worth of Chinese goods that will be subject to a 25 percent tariff. Trump and Kim promised in a joint statement to work toward the "denuclearization" of the Korean Peninsula, but they offered few specifics. With the summit out of the way, the market focus is quickly shifting to the Fed's two-day policy meeting ending on Wednesday and a European Central Bank decision on Thursday. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates for the second time this year after a move in March, but the bigger question for investors is the outlook for future monetary tightening amid an ongoing economic expansion. Projections from the Fed's March meeting suggest a benchmark rate of 2.1 percent at end of 2018, based on the median forecast of central bank policymakers, which would mean three rate hikes in total this year. In the currency market, the dollar was relatively well bid ahead of the Fed's meeting. It was underpinned by expectations that the ECB may drop a hint of winding up its stimulus after its policy meeting this week. Some emerging market currencies stayed under pressure on worries higher U.S. rates could prompt fund outflows from emerging markets to the United States.
  • The dollar reached a three-week high against the yen and stood tall against the euro on Wednesday ahead of a Federal Reserve policy meeting that could give clues on how many more U.S. rate hikes there will be this year. The Fed concludes its two-day policy meeting later on Wednesday, at which it is widely expected to hike rates for the second time this year. Market focus is on whether the Fed signals tightening policy four times in 2018, from the three times indicated earlier this year, after the world's largest economy has expanded steadily. The near-term direction of the euro is likely to be dictated by the Fed session and Thursday's European Central Bank policy meeting. Speculation that the ECB could signal its intention to start unwinding its massive bond purchasing program pushed up the euro to a three-week high of $1.1840 last week, although the common currency has been unable to sustain those gains. The euro has tended to show an inverse correlation with Italian bond yields. The currency slid sharply when Italian yields soared late in May as political turmoil in Rome shook the broader markets. Investors have shifted their focus to the two-day FOMC meeting that starts Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates for the second time this year and markets are waiting to see if there will be a third and a fourth hike in 2018. While there seems to be strong demand for dollar, the FOMC meeting holds volatile possibilities. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is mulling over more frequent press conferences, one after every policy meeting rather than every other meeting. The Bank of Japan will also review its monetary policy at a two-day meeting that ends on Friday, but will likely keep its policy intact.
  • Oil prices were lower on Wednesday as supplies in the U.S. rose, while expectations that voluntary production cuts led by the producer cartel OPEC could be loosened were also cited as headwind. The API reported on Tuesday that crude oil inventories jumped 830,000 barrels last week to 433.7 mn, as U.S. crude production surged 28% in the last two years to a record 10.8 million barrels per day. Output in Russia, another top producer, also rose above 11 million barrels per day, according to reports. Looking ahead, the EIA Official is scheduled to publish U.S. production and inventory data later in the day. Movements in oil markets were expected to remain limited as traders were reluctant to take on large new positions ahead of a meeting between producer cartel OPEC and some of its allies on June 22, as investors continued to fear OPEC could ease production curbs at its meeting to offset falling supplies in Venezuela and an expected drop in Iran oil exports as U.S. sanctions loom.   OPEC-member Iraq said last week that a production increase was not on the table as the market was stable and prices were good, despite reports that the U.S. government had asked Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members to increase oil output by around 1 million.  The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), together with some non-OPEC producers including Russia, started withholding output in 2017 to reduce a global supply overhang and push up prices. OPEC on Tuesday said that the oil market outlook in the second-half of 2018 is highly uncertain and warned of downside risks to demand. The group is due to meet on June 22 in Vienna, Austria, to discuss future production policy. In the United States, the API reported on Tuesday that crude oil inventories rose by 830,000 barrels in the week to June 8, to 433.7 million. The rising stocks are in part a result of the surge in U.S. crude oil production , which has jumped by 28 percent in the last two years, to a record 10.8 million bpd.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
13th June 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1300-1,305 1,311 1,321-1,330
Silver-XAG 17.00 17.40 17.70-18.20
Crude Oil 66.30 67.00 68.10-69.00
EURO/USD 1.1800 1.1850-1.1930 1.2010
GBP/USD 1.3400-1.3450 1.3500 1.3550-1.3610
USD/JPY 111.00 111.50-112.00 112.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
13th June 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,290 1,280-1,274 1,265
Silver-XAG 16.60-16.31 16.00 15.60-15.30
Crude Oil 65.70 65.00-64.50 63.00
EURO/USD 1.1700-1.1650 1.1600 1.1530
GBP/USD 1.3300-1.3260 1.3200 1.3060
USD/JPY 110.50-109.90 109.00 108.50-07.60

Intra-Day Strategy (13th June 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1300.46/oz and low of US$1293.17/oz. Gold was down by 0.336% at US$1295.67/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1326) and breakage below will call for 1316-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1300-1331 keeping stop loss closing above 1331 and targeting 1290-1280-1274 and 1265-1259. Buy above 1289-1265 with risk below 1280, targeting 1295-1305-1311 and 11321-1331.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,290
S2     1,280-1,274
S3     1,265
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1300-1,305
R2     1,311
R3     1,321-1,330

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.341

Buy
20-DMA   1300.52 Sell
50-DMA  

1310.27

Sell
100-DMA   1312.78 Sell
200-DMA   1303.83 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   35.391 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -5.478 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$16.93/oz and low of US$16.73/oz. Silver settled down by 0.355% at US$16.83/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.77), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.60-14.90 targeting 17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 17.00-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.60-16.30-16.00 and 15.60-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.60-16.31
S2     16.00
S3     15.60-15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.00
R2     17.40
R3     17.70-18.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   63.673 Buy
20-DMA   16.56 Sell
50-DMA   16.54 Sell
100-DMA   16.58 Sell
200-DMA   16.69 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   79.807 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0055 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$66.61/bbl, intraday low of US$65.80/bbl and settled down by 0.0757% to close at US$65.94/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 66.30-69.00 with stop loss at 69.00; targeting 65.20-64.50 and 63.00-61.80. Buy above 65.00-61.80 with risk daily closing below 61.70 and targeting 65.70-66.30-67.00 and 68.10-69.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     65.70
S2     65.00-64.50
S3     63.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     66.30
R2     67.00
R3     68.10-69.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.2282 Sell
20-DMA   67.29 Buy
50-DMA   67.20 Buy
100-DMA   65.20 Buy
200-DMA   61.38 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   42.228 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.938 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1732/EUR, high of US$1.1808/EUR and settled the day down by 0.118% to close at US$1.1743/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1725-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450 targeting 1.1850- 1.1930 and 1.2010-1.2090-. Sell below 1.1850-1.2090 targeting 1.1800-1.1770 and 1.1725-1.1600-1.1550 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2010.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1700-1.1650
S2     1.1600
S3     1.1530

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1800
R2     1.1850-1.1930
R3     1.2010

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.621 Buy
20-DMA   1.1764 Sell
50-DMA   1.1905 Sell
100-DMA   1.1995 Buy
200-DMA   1.1922 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   43.654 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0051 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3341/GBP, high of US$1.3424/GBP and settled the day down by 0.216% to close at US$1.3369/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3400-1.3700 with targets at 1.3320-1.3260 and 1.3160-1.3100-1.3060. Buy above 1.3300-1.3060 with targets 1.3400-1.3450-1.3550-and 1.3605-1.3700 with stop loss closing below 1.3160.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3300-1.3260
S2     1.3200
S3     1.3060

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3400-1.3450
R2     1.3500
R3     1.3550-1.3610

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.234

Buy
20-DMA   1.3406 Buy
50-DMA   1.3569 Buy
100-DMA   1.3648 Buy
200-DMA   1.3557 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   26.945 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0067 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY109.90/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.48/USD and settled the day up by 0.300% at JPY1110.35/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.50-112.90 with risk above 112.90 targeting 109.60-109.00-108.40 and 107.60-107.00. Long positions above 109.60-106.60 with targets of 110.50-111.00 and 111.50-112.00 with stop below 106.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.50-109.90
S2     109.00
S3     108.50-07.60

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.00
R2     111.50-112.00
R3     112.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.242 Buy
20-DMA   109.56 Buy
50-DMA   109.01 Buy
100-DMA   108.99 Sell
200-DMA   109.59 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   94.043 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.194 Sell

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