AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares wobbled on Friday as investors braced for U.S. tariffs against China, while the euro flirted with two-week lows after a cautious European Central Bank indicated it would not raise interest rates for some time. U.S. President Donald Trump has made up his mind to impose "pretty significant" tariffs and will unveil a list targeting $50 billion of Chinese goods on Friday, an administration official said. Beijing has warned that it was ready to respond. While it is not clear when Trump will activate the measures, rising Sino-U.S. trade tensions will put additional pressure on China's economy, which is starting to show signs of cooling under the weight of a multi-year crackdown on riskier lending. Analysts said that although the expected announcement would likely not be a total surprise to markets - an initial list was released by Washington a few months ago - it would still make investors concerned that the window for averting a trade war may be closing. The euro was headed for its worst weekly loss in 19 months after the ECB signaled on Thursday it will keep interest rates at record lows into at least mid-2019, even as it pledged to end its massive bond purchase scheme by the end of this year Helping boost U.S. equities was a Commerce Department report showing retail sales rose more than expected in May, the latest indication of an acceleration in economic growth in the second quarter. While the Fed and the ECB provided much of the week's central bank fireworks, the Bank of Japan produced no surprises at the end of a two-day policy meeting on Friday and looked set to continue its massive asset buying program for some time.
  • U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in May as consumers bought motor vehicles and a range of other goods even as they paid more for gasoline, the latest indication of an acceleration in economic growth in the second quarter. Other data on Thursday showed a further tightening in labor market conditions, with first-time applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly falling last week and the number of Americans on jobless rolls declining to a near 44-1/2-year low. The reports came a day after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for a second time this year and offered an upbeat assessment of the economy. The U.S. central bank described economic activity as “rising at a solid rate” and the labor market as continuing to “strengthen.” The Fed forecast two more rate hikes in the second half of 2018. The Commerce Department said retail sales jumped 0.8 percent last month, the biggest advance since November 2017. Data for April was revised up to show sales rising 0.4 percent instead of the previously reported 0.2 percent gain. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales rising 0.4 percent in May. Retail sales in May increased 5.9 percent from a year ago. Another Commerce Department report showed a rebound in business inventories in April. Following Thursday’s data growth estimates for the April-June quarter were raised to as high as a 4.8 percent rate, which would be the best performance in four years. In a separate report on Thursday, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 218,000 for the week ended June 9. Economists had forecast claims rising to 224,000 in the latest week. The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid declined 49,000 to 1.70 million in the week ended June 2, the lowest level since December 1973.
  • Oil prices were little changed on Friday as investors were reluctant to take on large new positions ahead of a key OPEC meeting in Vienna next week. Movements in oil markets were expected to remain limited ahead of a meeting between producer cartel OPEC and some of its allies on June 22, as investors continued to fear OPEC could ease production curbs at its meeting to offset falling supplies in Venezuela and an expected drop in Iran oil exports as U.S. sanctions loom.  Oil prices were under pressure earlier in the day amid reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia indicated ahead of the OPEC meeting in Vienna next week that production could rise. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said he held discussions with Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih in Moscow and that both nations "in principle" supported the gradual exit from the current pact that curbs output.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
15th June 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,305 1,311 1,321-1,330
Silver-XAG 17.40 17.70-18.20 18.70
Crude Oil 67.00 68.10-69.00 69.60
EURO/USD 1.1600-1.1650 1.1700 1.1800
GBP/USD 1.3260 1.3300 1.3360-1.3450
USD/JPY 110.50-111.00 111.50 112.00-112.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
15th June 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,295 1,280-1,274 1,265
Silver-XAG 17.00 16.60-16.31 16.00
Crude Oil 66.30 65.70 65.00-64.50
EURO/USD 1.1540-1.1490 1.1420 1.1370
GBP/USD 1.3200-1.3145 1.3100 1.3025
USD/JPY 109.90 109.00 108.50-07.60

Intra-Day Strategy (15th June 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1309.19/oz and low of US$1297.46/oz. Gold was up by 0.201% at US$1301.97/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1326) and breakage below will call for 1316-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1305-1331 keeping stop loss closing above 1331 and targeting 1295-1280-1274 and 1265-1259. Buy above 1289-1265 with risk below 1280, targeting 1295-1305-1311 and 11321-1331.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,295
S2     1,280-1,274
S3     1,265
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,305
R2     1,311
R3     1,321-1,330

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.4008

Buy
20-DMA   1299.39 Sell
50-DMA  

1307.44

Sell
100-DMA   1310.94 Sell
200-DMA   1303.48 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   52.145 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.772 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$17.30/oz and low of US$16.92/oz. Silver settled up by 0.941% at US$17.16/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.77), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.00-14.90 targeting 17.40-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 16.00. Sell below 17.40-18.70 with stop loss above 18.70; targeting 17.00-16.60-16.30 and 16.00-15.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.00
S2     16.60-16.31
S3     16.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.40
R2     17.70-18.20
R3     18.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   66.547 Buy
20-DMA   16.72 Sell
50-DMA   16.61 Sell
100-DMA   16.62 Sell
200-DMA   16.71 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   76.638 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.143 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$67.00/bbl, intraday low of US$66.15/bbl and settled down by 0.496% to close at US$66.79/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 67.10 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 68.10-69.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 67.00-69.60 with stop loss at 69.60; targeting 66.30-65.70 and 65.20-64.50-63.00. Buy above 66.30-64.00 with risk daily closing below 64.00 and targeting 67.00-68.10 and 69.00-69.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     66.30
S2     65.70
S3     65.00-64.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     67.00
R2     68.10-69.00
R3     69.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.0412 Sell
20-DMA   67.03 Buy
50-DMA   67.10 Buy
100-DMA   65.26 Buy
200-DMA   61.38 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   85.185 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.854 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1562/EUR, high of US$1.1850/EUR and settled the day down by 1.883% to close at US$1.1567/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1540-1.1370 with risk below 1.1350 targeting 1.1600-1.1650 and 1.1700-1.1800. Sell below 1.1600-1.1800 targeting 1.1540-1.1490 and 1.1420-1.1370 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1540-1.1490
S2     1.1420
S3     1.1370

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1600-1.1650
R2     1.1700
R3     1.1800

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.720 Buy
20-DMA   1.1733 Sell
50-DMA   1.1881 Sell
100-DMA   1.1979 Buy
200-DMA   1.1915 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   14.404 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0065 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3255/GBP, high of US$1.3445/GBP and settled the day down by 0.860% to close at US$1.3257/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3260-1.3450 with targets at 1.3200-1.3160 and 1.3100-1.3060. Buy above 1.3300-1.3060 with targets 1.3400-1.3450-1.3550-and 1.3605-1.3700 with stop loss closing below 1.3160.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3200-1.3145
S2     1.3100
S3     1.3025

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3260
R2     1.3300
R3     1.3360-1.3450

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

32.002

Buy
20-DMA   1.3308 Buy
50-DMA   1.3546 Buy
100-DMA   1.3633 Buy
200-DMA   1.3552 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.924 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY109.91/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.68/USD and settled the day up by 0.262% at JPY1110.61/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.50-112.90 with risk above 112.90 targeting 109.60-109.00-108.40 and 107.60-107.00. Long positions above 109.60-106.60 with targets of 110.50-111.00 and 111.50-112.00 with stop below 106.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.90
S2     109.00
S3     108.50-07.60

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.50-111.00
R2     111.50
R3     112.00-112.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.2388 Buy
20-DMA   109.77 Buy
50-DMA   109.22 Buy
100-DMA   109.10 Sell
200-DMA   109.62 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   67.139 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.236 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING