AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks sank on Tuesday and Shanghai shares plunged to near two-year lows as U.S. President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs on Chinese goods in an escalating tit-for-tat trade war between the world's two biggest economies. Trump threatened to impose a 10 percent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods, prompting a swift warning from Beijing of retaliation, as the trade conflict between the world's two biggest economies quickly escalated. It was retaliation, Trump said, for China's decision to raise tariffs on $50 billion in U.S. goods, which came after Trump announced similar tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday. China warned it will take "qualitative" and "quantitative" measures if the U.S. government publishes an additional list of tariffs on its products. The trade frictions have unnerved financial markets, with investors and businesses increasingly worried that a full-blown trade battle could derail global growth.
  • The dollar fell to one-week lows against the safe haven yen on Tuesday as escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China weighed on market sentiment. The yen strengthened as China vowed to retaliate after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese imports. The moves exacerbated worries among investors that the world’s two largest economies could descend into an all-out trade war. The Japanese currency is often sought by investors in times of geopolitical tensions and market turmoil. Uncertainty over the future of the North American Free Trade Agreement and concerns over tariffs that the Trump administration imposed on European trading partners also added to investor nerves. ECB President Mario Draghi and Chief Economist Peter Praet and others were to speak at the forum later in the day. The yen strengthened against the dollar in morning trade in Asia Tuesday after U.S. president Donald Trump raised the possibility of imposing new tariffs on US$200 billion worth of Chinese goods. Investors are entering risk-off-mode as worries mount over a U.S.-China trade war and the risk-off mode is benefiting the safe-haven yen. In a statement on Monday, Trump said he had asked U.S. representatives to identify Chinese goods that would be subject to the new tariffs. The move would be in retaliation for China’s decision to raise tariffs on $50 billion in U.S. goods, which was in itself in response to new U.S. tariffs. He added that "after the legal process is complete, these tariffs will go into effect if China refuses to change its practices, and also if it insists on going forward with the new tariffs that it has recently announced.”
  • Oil prices fell on Tuesday on reports that Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members are considering an agreement that delivers 300,000 to 600,000 barrels a day of additional supply to global markets over the next few months, according to reports that cited people briefed on the talks. The OPEC is expected to agree to raise production along with Russia and other producers after a key meeting in Vienna later this week. Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, believes this week could bring on a bullish, or positive, surprise for oil prices. Oil prices were also under pressure on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that he has ordered the U.S. Trade Representative to identify $200 billion worth of China goods for additional tariffs, escalating a trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies. Major U.S. energy companies including Plains All American Pipeline (N:PAA), Hess Corp (N:HES) and Kinder Morgan Inc (N:KMI) are among many seeking exemptions from steel-import tariffs as the United States ratchets up trade tensions with exporters including China, Canada and Mexico. There have been nearly 21,000 requests overall for exclusions submitted to the U.S. Commerce Department since the Trump administration imposed levies this year. Of those, more than 500 petitions involve pipes and related materials. Initial decisions are expected this month, offering the first clues as to how the administration will balance an agenda favoring oil and gas exports while also supporting the U.S. steel and aluminum industries. For the energy industry, the potential for relief has taken on added importance after China surprised markets last week by proposing 25 percent levies on about $1 billion a month in U.S. oil imports in retaliation for U.S. tariffs. he pipeline industry could face higher costs from tariffs as about 77 percent of the steel used in U.S. pipelines is imported, according to a 2017 study for the pipeline industry. Benchmark hot-rolled U.S. steel coil prices are up more than 50 percent from a year ago, according to S&P Global Platts. The 585,000-barrel per day line is due to start flowing next year, just as analysts warn a bottleneck of crude could force some producers to shut in production. Between 2015 and 2016, the U.S. imported between about $5 billion and $8 billion in steel line pipe, valves and fittings for the pipeline industry, according to a study by consultancy ICF for the American Petroleum Institute.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
19th June 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,289 1,295-1,305 1,311
Silver-XAG 16.60-117.00 17.40 17.70-18.20
Crude Oil 65.70-66.30 67.00 68.10-69.00
EURO/USD 1.1600-1.1650 1.1700 1.1800
GBP/USD 1.3260 1.3300 1.3360-1.3450
USD/JPY 109.90-110.50 111.00 111.50-112.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
19th June 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,280-1,274 1,265 1,251
Silver-XAG 6.31 16.00 15.60-15.30
Crude Oil 64.50-64.00 63.30 62.00
EURO/USD 1.1540-1.1490 1.1420 1.1370
GBP/USD 1.3200-1.3145 1.3100 1.3025
USD/JPY 109.00 108.50-107.60 107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (19th June 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1282.30/oz and low of US$1276.96/oz. Gold was up by 0.026% at US$1278.24/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1326) and breakage below will call for 1316-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1289-1311 keeping stop loss closing above 1311 and targeting 1280-1274 and 1265-1259. Buy above 1280-1265 with risk below 1265, targeting 1289-1295-1305 and 1311-1321.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,280-1,274
S2     1,265
S3     1,251
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,289
R2     1,295-1,305
R3     1,311

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

35.400

Buy
20-DMA   1294.55 Sell
50-DMA  

1304.62

Sell
100-DMA   1309.35 Sell
200-DMA   1302.82 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.562 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -5.844 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$16.61/oz and low of US$16.40/oz. Silver settled down by 0.242% at US$16.46/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.77), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.30-14.90 targeting 16.60-17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.60-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.60-16.30-16.00 and 15.60-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     6.31
S2     16.00
S3     15.60-15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.60-117.00
R2     17.40
R3     17.70-18.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.982 Buy
20-DMA   16.62 Sell
50-DMA   16.58 Sell
100-DMA   16.60 Sell
200-DMA   16.10 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   5.9718 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.037 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$66.78/bbl, intraday low of US$63.36/bbl and settled up by 2.33% to close at US$65.61/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 65.70-69.00 with stop loss at 69.00; targeting 64.50-63.30 and 62.00-61.20. Buy above 64.50-61.70 with risk daily closing below 61.70 and targeting 65.70-66.30-67.00 and 68.10-69.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     64.50-64.00
S2     63.30
S3     62.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     65.70-66.30
R2     67.00
R3     68.10-69.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.476 Sell
20-DMA   66.51 Buy
50-DMA   66.86 Buy
100-DMA   65.25 Buy
200-DMA   61.63 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   37.051 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.904 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1564/EUR, high of US$1.1624/EUR and settled the day up by 0.302% to close at US$1.1621/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1540-1.1370 with risk below 1.1350 targeting 1.1600-1.1650 and 1.1700-1.1800. Sell below 1.1600-1.1800 targeting 1.1540-1.1490 and 1.1420-1.1370 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1540-1.1490
S2     1.1420
S3     1.1370

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1600-1.1650
R2     1.1700
R3     1.1800

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.720 Buy
20-DMA   1.1733 Sell
50-DMA   1.1881 Sell
100-DMA   1.1979 Buy
200-DMA   1.1915 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   14.404 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0065 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3225/GBP, high of US$1.3278/GBP and settled the day down by 0.128% to close at US$1.3243/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3260-1.3450 with targets at 1.3200-1.3160 and 1.3100-1.3060. Buy above 1.3300-1.3060 with targets 1.3400-1.3450-1.3550-and 1.3605-1.3700 with stop loss closing below 1.3160.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3200-1.3145
S2     1.3100
S3     1.3025

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3260
R2     1.3300
R3     1.3360-1.3450

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

32.002

Buy
20-DMA   1.3308 Buy
50-DMA   1.3546 Buy
100-DMA   1.3633 Buy
200-DMA   1.3552 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.924 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY110.73/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.73/USD and settled the day up by 0.135% at JPY1110.53/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.50-112.90 with risk above 112.90 targeting 109.60-109.00-108.40 and 107.60-107.00. Long positions above 109.60-106.60 with targets of 110.50-111.00 and 111.50-112.00 with stop below 106.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.00
S2     108.50-107.60
S3     107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.90-110.50
R2     111.00
R3     111.50-112.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.2388 Buy
20-DMA   109.77 Buy
50-DMA   109.22 Buy
100-DMA   109.10 Sell
200-DMA   109.62 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   67.139 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.236 Sell

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