AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stock markets picked up steam in afternoon trade on Wednesday after a wobbly morning session, highlighting the lingering anxiety and uncertainty surrounding a heated trade dispute between China and the United States. In China, markets turned losses into gains as investors appeared to take heart from indications of government support. In a working paper on Tuesday, China's central bank said the country should cut banks' reserve requirement ratios (RRR) to boost market liquidity, highlighting concerns over trade, a day after the central bank governor urged investors to remain calm An apparent bias toward looser policy "runs counter to the regional bias toward higher rates to protect currency downside," she said, adding that growing policy divergence indicates room for the onshore and offshore yuan to depreciate. The bounce in share markets comes despite trade tensions between the United States and China showing few signs of easing. On Tuesday, a White House trade adviser said that Beijing has underestimated the U.S. president's resolve to impose more tariffs. Washington threatened on Monday to impose a 10 percent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods after Beijing decided to raise tariffs on $50 billion in U.S. goods, in response to similar tariffs on Chinese goods announced Friday. A more attractive dividend proposition and a weaker Australian dollar have made the market more alluring to overseas investors, said Ryan Felsman, a senior economist at CommSec.
  • The dollar steadied against the yen on Wednesday, as U.S. yields pulled back from lows hit on concerns about a worsening trade feud between Washington and Beijing, although persistent worries about the trade rift are likely to cap any greenback recovery. The dollar managed to bounce back against the yen as a degree of calm returned to broader markets and Wall Street shares pared a bulk of their losses, while safe-haven U.S. Treasury yields climbed from three-week lows. Better-than-expected U.S. housing data also nudged Treasury yields off their lows on Tuesday. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi called for a patient approach to European monetary policy at a forum in Portugal. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to slap more tariffs on China, prompting an angry response from Beijing. Escalating tensions triggered risk aversion and caused a sell-off in global equities. The yen is often sought in times of political tension and market turmoil. The dollar managed to bounce back against the yen as a degree of calm returned to broader markets and Wall Street shares pared a bulk of their losses, while safe-haven U.S. Treasury yields climbed from three-week lows.
  • Oil prices were mixed on Wednesday as markets digest reports that Iran rejected a potential compromise at OPEC and said it would not support even a small increase in oil production at the key OPEC meeting in Vienna on Friday. The OPEC is expected to agree to raise production along with Russia and other producers after a key meeting in Vienna later this week.  Oil prices were under pressure this week after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that he has ordered the U.S. Trade Representative to identify $200 billion worth of China goods for additional tariffs, escalating a trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies.  Meanwhile, a drop in U.S. commercial crude inventories reported by the API were cited as supporting oil prices on Wednesday. U.S. crude inventories fell by 3 million barrels in the week to June 15 to 430.6 million barrels, according to the weekly API report published on Tuesday. China's proposed tariffs on U.S. petroleum imports, part of a mounting trade war between the two countries, would crimp sales to the shale industry's largest customer, adding new pressure on U.S. crude prices, energy executives and analysts said in interviews this week. China has said it would slap a 25 percent tariff on imports of U.S. crude, natural gas and coal on July 6 if Washington went ahead, as planned, with its own tariffs on Chinese goods that day. China is the largest customer for U.S. crude, importing about 363,000 barrels a day in the six months ended in March. Thomson Reuters shipping data shows those exports have increased since, rising to an expected 450,000 bpd in July. On Friday, OPEC oil ministers will gather to consider sharply increasing the group's production this year, a move advanced forth by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The change is opposed by members Algeria, Iran, Iraq and Venezuela. The United States also recently set new sanctions on Iran's petroleum industry, which is expected to disrupt oil flows. The impact likely would be temporary as U.S. oil becomes less attractive to Chinese buyers. But the tit-for-tat expansion of tariffs has U.S. oil industry officials and politicians calling on the Trump administration to move cautiously. The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers Association on Tuesday called on the president "to work with China - and all nations - to reduce barriers to competition rather than promote them.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
20th June 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,280 1,286 1,295-1,305
Silver-XAG 16.60-117.00 17.40 17.70-18.20
Crude Oil 65.70-66.30 67.00 68.10-69.00
EURO/USD 1.1600-1.1650 1.1700 1.1800
GBP/USD 1.3200-1.3260 1.3300 1.3360-1.3450
USD/JPY 109.90-110.50 111.00 111.50-112.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
20th June 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,274-1,265 1,251 1,240
Silver-XAG 16.31 16.00 15.60-15.30
Crude Oil 64.50-64.00 63.30 62.00
EURO/USD 1.1540-1.1490 1.1420 1.1370
GBP/USD 1.3145-1.3100 1.3025 1.2950
USD/JPY 109.00 108.50-107.60 107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (20th June 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1283.94/oz and low of US$1270.36/oz. Gold was up by 0.293% at US$1274.40/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1326) and breakage below will call for 1316-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1280-1311 keeping stop loss closing above 1311 and targeting 1274-1265 and 1259-1250. Buy above 1274-1250 with risk below 1250, targeting 1280-1289-1295 and 1305-1311.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,274-1,265
S2     1,251
S3     1,240
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,280
R2     1,286
R3     1,295-1,305

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

31.250

Buy
20-DMA   1296.00 Sell
50-DMA  

1305.59

Sell
100-DMA   1309.93 Sell
200-DMA   1303.04 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   20.129 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -5.329 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$16.53/oz and low of US$16.22/oz. Silver settled down by 0.913% at US$16.27/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.77), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.30-14.90 targeting 16.60-17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.60-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.60-16.30-16.00 and 15.60-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.31
S2     16.00
S3     15.60-15.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.60-117.00
R2     17.40
R3     17.70-18.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.131 Buy
20-DMA   16.58 Sell
50-DMA   16.56 Sell
100-DMA   16.59 Sell
200-DMA   16.69 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   7.082 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0046 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$65,66/bbl, intraday low of US$64.17/bbl and settled down by 1.279% to close at US$64.80/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 65.70-69.00 with stop loss at 69.00; targeting 64.50-63.30 and 62.00-61.20. Buy above 64.50-61.70 with risk daily closing below 61.70 and targeting 65.70-66.30-67.00 and 68.10-69.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     64.50-64.00
S2     63.30
S3     62.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     65.70-66.30
R2     67.00
R3     68.10-69.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.778 Sell
20-DMA   66.37 Buy
50-DMA   66.79 Buy
100-DMA   65.24 Buy
200-DMA   61.66 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   50.182 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.904 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1529/EUR, high of US$1.1643/EUR and settled the day up by 0.302% to close at US$1.1587/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1540-1.1370 with risk below 1.1350 targeting 1.1600-1.1650 and 1.1700-1.1800. Sell below 1.1600-1.1800 targeting 1.1540-1.1490 and 1.1420-1.1370 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1540-1.1490
S2     1.1420
S3     1.1370

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1600-1.1650
R2     1.1700
R3     1.1800

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.720 Buy
20-DMA   1.1733 Sell
50-DMA   1.1881 Sell
100-DMA   1.1979 Buy
200-DMA   1.1915 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   14.404 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0065 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3149/GBP, high of US$1.3272/GBP and settled the day down by 0.543% to close at US$1.3171/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3200-1.3450 with targets at 1.3160-1.3100 and 1.3060-1.3000. Buy above 1.3145-1.3000 with targets 1.3400-1.3450-1.3550-and 1.3605-1.3700 with stop loss closing below 1.3160.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3145-1.3100
S2     1.3025
S3     1.2950

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3200-1.3260
R2     1.3300
R3     1.3360-1.3450

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

28.244

Buy
20-DMA   1.3333 Buy
50-DMA   1.3507 Buy
100-DMA   1.3608 Buy
200-DMA   1.3541 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   9.000 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY109.54/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.56/USD and settled the day down by 0.443% at JPY1109.54/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.50-112.90 with risk above 112.90 targeting 109.60-109.00-108.40 and 107.60-107.00. Long positions above 109.60-106.60 with targets of 110.50-111.00 and 111.50-112.00 with stop below 106.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.00
S2     108.50-107.60
S3     107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.90-110.50
R2     111.00
R3     111.50-112.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.2388 Buy
20-DMA   109.77 Buy
50-DMA   109.22 Buy
100-DMA   109.10 Sell
200-DMA   109.62 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   67.139 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.236 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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