AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares stumbled to their lowest in six months on Friday, hurt by signs U.S. trade battles with China and many other countries are starting to chip away at corporate profits, while oil prices were choppy before an OPEC meeting to discuss raising output. In a sign that escalating tensions between the United States and its trade partners were taking a toll on the economy, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's gauge of U.S. Mid-Atlantic business activity fell to a 1-1/2 year low. Despite budding evidence of economic damage, trade frictions have shown no sign of abating. U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Thursday the United States needs to make it harder for its trading partners to have high trade barriers in order to achieve President Donald Trump's ultimate goal of lower tariffs and a level playing field. India joined the European Union and China in retaliating against Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum, raising import duties on U.S. almonds by 20 percent and leveraging its position as the world's biggest buyer of the product. While some investors still hope Washington and Beijing can work out a deal before July 6, when the first round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods as well as retaliatory tariffs by China are due to take effect, others see diminishing hopes of an early compromise. Worsening sentiment pushed U.S. bond yields lower and triggered profit-taking in the dollar. The single currency had fallen on bets of a protracted period of monetary policy divergence between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. In addition, the Italian government's appointment on Thursday of two eurosceptics to head key finance committees reignited worries about anti-euro voices in the euro zone's third-largest economy. The British pound jumped back from a seven-month trough after the Bank of England's chief economist, Andy Haldane, unexpectedly joined the minority of policymakers calling for rates to rise to 0.75 percent, citing concerns about growing wage pressure.
  • The dollar pulled back from an 11-month peak against a basket of major currencies on Friday as investors took profits after the currency's earlier rally, while sterling rebounded from a seven-month low after a slightly hawkish tilt from the Bank of England surprised the market. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing index fell sharply to a 1-1/2 year low, raising concern about the world's largest economy and prompting some traders to book profits on bullish dollar bets, analysts said. The looming U.S.-China trade war had underpinned support for the dollar recently. A 25 percent tariff on $34 billion Chinese goods will take effect on July 6, with $16 billion still under review. U.S. is planning to slap a 10 percent tariff on an extra $200 billion goods afterwards. This has been met with promise of retaliation from China. The Philadelphia Fed index on U.S. Mid-Atlantic business activity fell to 19.9 in June from 34.4 in May, its steepest fall since January 2014. The single currency had fallen on bets of a protracted period of monetary policy divergence between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. In addition, the Italian government's appointment on Thursday of two euro skeptics to head key finance committees reignited worries about anti-euro voices in the euro zone's third-largest economy. According to data released today by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, the Japanese CPI that represents the nationwide cost of living was up 0.7 percent year on year in May, versus the expected 0.3%, and the core CPI also increased 0.7 percent year on year as expected.
  • Oil prices climbed more than 1% on Friday, with all eyes on OPEC and its allies as they meet in Vienna later on Friday. OEPC is meeting with some non-OPEC members including Russia in Vienna later today to discuss possible crude output hike. The group started withholding supply in 2017 to prop up prices. Saudi Arabia and Russia, both of which have the ability to increase production, are opting for a substantial output hike. Meanwhile, countries without spare capacity, including Iraq, Iran and Venezuela, prefer to keep the supply limits in place.  The OPEC on Friday to decide output strategies amid calls from top consumers such as the United States, China and India to cool down oil prices and support the world economy by producing more crude. Ahead of the meeting, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Friday that OPEC and non-OPEC members were close to agreeing on a deal to raise oil production. Oil prices were under pressure earlier this week after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that he has ordered the U.S. Trade Representative to identify $200 billion worth of China goods for additional tariffs, escalating a trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies It was reported earlier this week that China is considering to impose tariffs on U.S. crude imports. The 25% duty on U.S. crude imports, should it be implemented, could potentially make American oil uncompetitive in China. Iran has so far been the main barrier to a new deal as it said OPEC was unlikely to reach an agreement and should reject pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to pump more oil.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
22nd June 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,274-1,280 1,286 1,289
Silver-XAG 16.31-16.60 17.00 17.40-17.70
Crude Oil 66.30 67.00 68.10-69.00
EURO/USD 1.1650-1.1700 1.1820 1.1900
GBP/USD 1.3300 1.3360-1.3450 1.3500
USD/JPY 110.50 111.00 111.50-112.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
22nd June 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,265 1,260-1,251 1,240
Silver-XAG 16.00 15.60-15.30 14.80
Crude Oil 65.70 64.50-64.00 63.30
EURO/USD 1.1600 1.1540-1.1490 1.1420
GBP/USD 1.3260-1.3200 1.3145 1.3100-1.3025
USD/JPY 109.80 109.00 108.50-107.60

Intra-Day Strategy (22nd June 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1270.04/oz and low of US$1261.28/oz. Gold was down by 0.059% at US$1267.00/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1326) and breakage below will call for 1316-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1280-1311 keeping stop loss closing above 1311 and targeting 1274-1265 and 1259-1250. Buy above 1274-1250 with risk below 1250, targeting 1280-1289-1295 and 1305-1311.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,265
S2     1,260-1,251
S3     1,240
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,274-1,280
R2     1,286
R3     1,289

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

30.372

Buy
20-DMA   1287.27 Sell
50-DMA  

1300.27

Sell
100-DMA   1306.83 Sell
200-DMA   1301.74 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   13.532 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -9.172 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$16.34/oz and low of US$16.18/oz. Silver settled up by 0.369% at US$16.18/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.77), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.30-14.90 targeting 16.60-17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.60-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.60-16.30-16.00 and 15.60-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.00
S2     15.60-15.30
S3     14.80

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.31-16.60
R2     17.00
R3     17.40-17.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.131 Buy
20-DMA   16.58 Sell
50-DMA   16.56 Sell
100-DMA   16.59 Sell
200-DMA   16.69 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   7.082 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0046 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$66.07/bbl, intraday low of US$64.23/bbl and settled down by 0.632% to close at US$65.63/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 65.70-69.00 with stop loss at 69.00; targeting 64.50-63.30 and 62.00-61.20. Buy above 64.50-61.70 with risk daily closing below 61.70 and targeting 65.70-66.30-67.00 and 68.10-69.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     65.70
S2     64.50-64.00
S3     63.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     66.30
R2     67.00
R3     68.10-69.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.267 Sell
20-DMA   66.30 Buy
50-DMA   66.73 Buy
100-DMA   65.27 Buy
200-DMA   61.75 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   68.7225 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.742 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1507/EUR, high of US$1.1632/EUR and settled the day down by 0.250% to close at US$1.1601/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1600-1.1370 with risk below 1.1350 targeting 1.1650-1.1700 and 1.1820-1.1900. Sell below 1.1650-1.1800 targeting 1.1540-1.1490 and 1.1420-1.1370 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1600
S2     1.1540-1.1490
S3     1.1420

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1650-1.1700
R2     1.1820
R3     1.1900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.791 Buy
20-DMA   1.1685 Sell
50-DMA   1.1832 Sell
100-DMA   1.1944 Buy
200-DMA   1.1900 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   45.070 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0065 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3101/GBP, high of US$1.3269/GBP and settled the day up by 0.508% to close at US$1.31233/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3300-1.3500 with targets at 1.3260-1.3200-1.3100 and 1.3060-1.3000. Buy above 1.3260-1.3025 with targets 1.3300-1.3360-1.3400 and 1.3450-1.3550 with stop loss closing below 1.3160.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3260-1.3200
S2     1.3145
S3     1.3100-1.3025

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3300
R2     1.3360-1.3450
R3     1.3500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.236

Buy
20-DMA   1.3319 Buy
50-DMA   1.3487 Buy
100-DMA   1.3594 Buy
200-DMA   1.3536 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   19.181 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY109.83/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.75/USD and settled the day down by 0.353% at JPY1109.95/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.50-112.00 with risk above 112.00 targeting 109.80-109.00 and 108.40-107.60. Long positions above 109.80-107.60 with targets of 110.50-111.00 -111.50 and 112.00-112.70 with stop below 107.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.80
S2     109.00
S3     108.50-107.60

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.50
R2     111.00
R3     111.50-112.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.498 Buy
20-DMA   109.99 Buy
50-DMA   109.45 Buy
100-DMA   109.24 Sell
200-DMA   109.66 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   50.162 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.214 Sell

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