AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The latest episode in a trade dispute between the United States and other major economies sent European shares further into a funk on Monday with benchmarks down 0.7 to 1.4 percent. A report that U.S. President Donald Trump plans to bar many Chinese companies from investing in U.S. technology firms and block more tech exports to Beijing hit Asian stocks overnight and dented early European trading. Italian cable maker Prysmian (MI:PRY) fell 4.7 percent, the biggest loser on the STOXX, at the open after it cut its guidance due to additional expected costs related to issues with its UK WesternLink undersea cable project. UK companies to signal results would be hit by adverse economic conditions.
  • The dollar fell to a two-week low against the yen on Monday as a latest flare-up in global trade concerns dented investor risk appetites and drove down U.S. yields. Investors steered from risk, with Asian equities in retreat and Treasury yields declining, after the Wall Street Journal reported the U.S. Treasury Department is crafting rules that would block firms with at least 25 percent Chinese ownership from buying U.S. companies involved in "industrially significant technology". The report added to the sense of caution felt after U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday threatened to impose a 20 percent tariff on all cars imported from the European Union. The EU responded by saying it will have no choice but to retaliate to such a move This week's U.S. indicators include housing-related data on Monday, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index on Tuesday, durable goods orders on Wednesday and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) numbers on Friday. The euro was steady at $1.1654 (EUR=) after gaining about 0.5 percent on Friday. The single currency was lifted after Friday's upbeat German and French business activity data and fresh assurances by Italian politicians that their nation would not leave the single currency. Commodity-linked currencies dipped as a surge by crude oil prices ran out of steam amid the latest round of trade jitters. The lira had initially soared after Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling AK Party claimed victory in presidential and parliamentary elections on Sunday, overcoming the biggest electoral challenge to their rule in a decade and a half.
  • Gold prices edged up on Monday as the dollar weakened, while trade concerns between the U.S. and China also supported the bullion. The U.S. is considering to declare China’s investment in U.S. technologies companies a threat to economic and national security, according to reports on Monday that cited eight people familiar with the plans.  The reports further noted U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin would suggest administering the law in a report scheduled to be released on June 29.   On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 20% tariff on all U.S. imports of European Union-assembled cars, escalating trade tensions with Europe. In response, a senior European Commission official said the EU would respond to any U.S. move to raise tariffs on cars made in the bloc. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell in morning trade and was trading at 94.4960. The USD has been strengthening since April but the looming trade war is starting to create jitters on the market.   Dollar-denominated assets such as gold are sensitive to moves in the dollar – A fall in the dollar makes gold less expensive for holders of foreign currency and thus, increases demand for the precious metal.
  • Oil prices fell on Monday as traders factored in an expected 1 mn bpd output increase in the wake of an OPEC meeting in Vienna last week. Despite this, analysts said global oil markets would likely remain relatively tight this year. Prices initially jumped after an OPEC deal to increase output was announced late last week as it was not seen boosting supply by as much as some had expected. OPEC and non-OPEC partners including Russia have since 2017 cut output by 1.8 million bpd to tighten the market and prop up prices. Largely because of unplanned disruptions in places like Venezuela and Angola, the group's output has been below the targeted cuts, which it now says will be reversed by supply increases, especially from OPEC leader Saudi Arabia. Although analysts warn there is little space capacity for large-scale output increases. After officially meeting on Friday, OPEC gave a press conference on Saturday that implied a bigger increase in supply. In the United States, U.S. energy companies last week cut one oil rig, the first reduction in 12 weeks, lowering the total rig count to 862. That put the rig count on track for its smallest monthly gain since declining by two rigs in March, with just three rigs added so far in June. However, the overall level remains just one rig short of the March 2015 high from the previous week. Goldman Sachs also warned that an "outage at Syncrude Canada's oil sands facility could leave North America short of 360,000 bpd of supply for all of July".

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
25th June 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,274-1,280 1,286 1,289
Silver-XAG 16.40-16.60 17.00 17.40-17.70
Crude Oil 69.00-69.60 70.20 71.00
EURO/USD 1.1650-1.1700 1.1820 1.1900
GBP/USD 1.3300 1.3360-1.3450 1.3500
USD/JPY 109.80-110.50 111.00 111.50-112.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
25th June 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,265 1,260-1,251 1,240
Silver-XAG 16.00 15.60-15.30 14.80
Crude Oil 68.10-67.00 66.30 65.70-64.50
EURO/USD 1.1600 1.1540-1.1490 1.1420
GBP/USD 1.3260-1.3200 1.3145 1.3100-1.3025
USD/JPY 109.00 108.50-107.60 107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (25th June 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1270.92/oz and low of US$1266.41/oz. Gold was up by 0.197% at US$1269.36/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

for 1316-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1280-1311 keeping stop loss closing above 1311 and targeting 1274-1265 and 1259-1250. Buy above 1274-1250 with risk below 1250, targeting 1280-1289-1295 and 1305-1311.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,265
S2     1,260-1,251
S3     1,240
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,274-1,280
R2     1,286
R3     1,289

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

30.372

Buy
20-DMA   1287.27 Sell
50-DMA  

1300.27

Sell
100-DMA   1306.83 Sell
200-DMA   1301.74 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   21.532 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -9.172 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$16.47/oz and low of US$16.28/oz. Silver settled up by 0.982% at US$16.44/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.30-14.90 targeting 16.60-17.00-17.75 and 18.20-18.60; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.60-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.60-16.30-16.00 and 15.60-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.00
S2     15.60-15.30
S3     14.80

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.40-16.60
R2     17.00
R3     17.40-17.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.885 Buy
20-DMA   16.58 Sell
50-DMA   16.56 Sell
100-DMA   16.59 Sell
200-DMA   16.69 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   29.082 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0046 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$69.05/bbl, intraday low of US$65.53/bbl and settled up by 4.94% to close at US$68.93/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 69.00-71.00 with stop loss at 71.00; targeting 68.10-67.00-66.30 and 64.50-63.30. Buy above 68.10-64.50 with risk daily closing below 64.50 and targeting 69.00-69.60 and 70.20-71.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     68.10-67.00
S2     66.30
S3     65.70-64.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     69.00-69.60
R2     70.20
R3     71.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.618 Sell
20-DMA   66.72 Buy
50-DMA   66.89 Buy
100-DMA   65.38 Buy
200-DMA   61.84 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   85.074 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.232 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1596/EUR, high of US$1.1674/EUR and settled the day up by 0.491% to close at US$1.1653/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1600-1.1370 with risk below 1.1350 targeting 1.1650-1.1700 and 1.1820-1.1900. Sell below 1.1650-1.1800 targeting 1.1540-1.1490 and 1.1420-1.1370 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1600
S2     1.1540-1.1490
S3     1.1420

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1650-1.1700
R2     1.1820
R3     1.1900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.791 Buy
20-DMA   1.1685 Sell
50-DMA   1.1832 Sell
100-DMA   1.1944 Buy
200-DMA   1.1900 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   45.070 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0065 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3232/GBP, high of US$1.3314/GBP and settled the day up by 0.120% to close at US$1.3263/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3300-1.3500 with targets at 1.3260-1.3200-1.3100 and 1.3060-1.3000. Buy above 1.3260-1.3025 with targets 1.3300-1.3360-1.3400 and 1.3450-1.3550 with stop loss closing below 1.3160.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3260-1.3200
S2     1.3145
S3     1.3100-1.3025

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3300
R2     1.3360-1.3450
R3     1.3500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.236

Buy
20-DMA   1.3319 Buy
50-DMA   1.3487 Buy
100-DMA   1.3594 Buy
200-DMA   1.3536 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   19.181 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY109.79/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.21/USD and settled the day up by 0.018% at JPY1109.96/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.80-112.00 with risk above 112.00 targeting 109.00-108.40 and 107.60-107.00. Long positions above 109.00-107.00 with targets of 109.80-110.50-111.00 and 111.50-112.00 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.00
S2     108.50-107.60
S3     107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.80-110.50
R2     111.00
R3     111.50-112.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.211 Buy
20-DMA   109.96 Buy
50-DMA   109.46 Buy
100-DMA   109.25 Sell
200-DMA   109.66 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   25.751 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.158 Sell

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