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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks slipped on Wednesday on heightened anxieties about Sino-U.S. trade tensions ahead Washington’s end-of-week deadline to impose tariffs on Chinese imports while the yuan rebounded after China’s central bank moved to calm nervous investors Wall Street shares declined on Tuesday, giving up early gains in a truncated session ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Wednesday, as technology shares came under pressure just a day after their solid start for the quarter on Monday. Coming on the heels of escalating tensions between the United States and China over tariffs and investment restrictions, the injunction sparked selling in other U.S. chipmakers. Many investors fear Washington will go ahead with its plan to levy a 25 percent tariff on 818 product categories from China including cars on Friday, which Beijing has vowed to match with tariffs on U.S. products. They worry the move could spark a full-scale international trade war and harm the global economy, especially as the Trump administration has threatened tariffs on imports from many other major economies. The U.S. has listed another 284 product lines, valued at $16 billion, targeting semiconductors and a broad range of electronics, which it has said will go into effect after a public comment period, and threatened another 10 percent tariffs on up to $400 billion of Chinese goods. Washington has also launched a national security investigation into car and truck imports, with Trump threatening Europe with a 20 percent tariff on car imports while various countries have also already taken retaliatory steps against U.S. tariffs on steels and aluminium products.
  • The dollar dipped against a currency basket on Wednesday in thin trade ahead of the U.S. Independence Day holiday as concerns over heightened trade tensions remained to the forefront. Investors remained cautious ahead of Friday’s deadline for the U.S. to impose a 25% tariff on Chinese imports, which Beijing has vowed to match with a levy on U.S. products. U.S. President Donald Trump is sticking to plans to penalize major trading partners, including the European Union, Mexico and Canada as part of his 'America First' policy that many investors fear will hit global growth. Gold prices rose to a one-week high on Wednesday as a softening dollar supported buying in the yellow metal. Dollar-denominated assets such as gold are sensitive to moves in the dollar – A fall in the dollar makes gold less expensive for holders of foreign currency and thus, increases demand for the precious metal.  Trade concerns remained in focus as traders await the July 6 deadline when the U.S. trade tariffs on $34 billion in Chinese goods are due to take effect. In response, China has announced that it would retaliate with duties on the same value of U.S. products. Trading activity is expected to be light however, as the U.S. markets are closed on Wednesday for the Independence Day holiday. Looking ahead, investors are also awaiting minutes of the June U.S. Federal Reserve meeting which is due on Thursday and the U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday.
  • Oil prices edged up on Wednesday following a report of tightening U.S. fuel inventories amid an outage at Syncrude Canada oil sands facility in Alberta, which usually supplies the United States. Prices were also pushed up by looming U.S. sanctions against Iran, which threaten to cut supplies to an already tight market despite pledges by producer cartel OPEC to raise output to make up for the disruptions. Trading activity is expected to be limited on Wednesday by the U.S. Independence Day holiday. U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels to 416.9 million barrels in the week to June 29, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday. Gasoline and distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, also fell, the API said. The decline in fuel inventories was largely down to the outage at Syncrude Canada's 360,000 barrels per day (bpd) oil sands facility near Fort McMurray, Alberta. The outage is expected to last through July. Outside North America, looming U.S. sanctions against major oil exporter Iran were the focus of attention. The U.S. government has demanded that all countries stop buying Iran's oil from November. To make up for potential shortfalls in supply from Iran and other disruptions including in Libya and Venezuela, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has agreed with Russia and other oil-producing non-OPEC members to raise output from July. OPEC-member Iran, however, has warned it would not accept other producers reaping the benefits by taking its market share. Iran's President Hassan Rouhani on Tuesday said it was "unwise to imagine that some day all producer countries will be able to export their surplus oil and Iran will not be able to export its oil."

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
4th July 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,260-1,265 1,271 1,278
Silver-XAG 16.40-16.60 17.00 17.35
Crude Oil 72.50-73.20 74.00 75.00-75.50
EURO/USD 1.1660 1.1700 1.1820-1.1900
GBP/USD 1.3200 1.3260-1.3310 1.3390
USD/JPY 111.00 111.40-112.00 112.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
4th July 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,251 1,240-1,236 1,220
Silver-XAG 16.00 15.60-15.30 14.80
Crude Oil 71.90 70.70-69.60 69.00
EURO/USD 1.1600 1.1500-1.1450 1.1365
GBP/USD 1.3145-1.3100 1.3050 1.2990-1.2920
USD/JPY 109.80 109.00 108.50-107.60

Intra-Day Strategy (4th July 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1256.79/oz and low of US$1237.84/oz. Gold was up by 0.868% at US$1252.56/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1326) and breakage below will call for 1316-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1251-1271 keeping stop loss closing above 1290 and targeting 1240-1236 and 1220-1214. Buy above 1240-1214 with risk below 1214, targeting 1251-1260-1265 and 1271-1278.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,251
S2     1,240-1,236
S3     1,220
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,260-1,265
R2     1,271
R3     1,278

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

25.933

Buy
20-DMA   1272.16 Sell
50-DMA  

1290.45

Sell
100-DMA   1300.90 Sell
200-DMA   1298.98 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   18.534 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -13.407 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$16.02/oz and low of US$15.77/oz. Silver settled up by 1.32% at US$15.77/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.00-14.90 targeting 16.35-16.60-17.00 and 17.75-18.20; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.60-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.60-16.30-16.00 and 15.60-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.00
S2     15.60-15.30
S3     14.80

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.40-16.60
R2     17.00
R3     17.35

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.402 Buy
20-DMA   16.27 Sell
50-DMA   16.42 Sell
100-DMA   16.51 Sell
200-DMA   16.64 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   44.693 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.1505 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$73.85/bbl, intraday low of US$71.40/bbl and settled up by % to close at US$72.78 /bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 72.50-76.20 with stop loss at 76.20; targeting 73.20-72.50-71.90 and 70.70-69.60. Buy above 71.90-69.00 with risk daily closing below 69.60 and targeting 72.50-73.20-74.00 and 75.00-76.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     71.90
S2     70.70-69.60
S3     69.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     72.50-73.20
R2     74.00
R3     75.00-75.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   63.388 Sell
20-DMA   69.54 Buy
50-DMA   68.03 Buy
100-DMA   66.15 Buy
200-DMA   62.44 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.932 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.380 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1619/EUR, high of US$1.1672/EUR and settled the day up by 0.163% to close at US$1.1657/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1600-1.1300 with risk below 1.1300 targeting 1.1660-1.1700 and 1.1820-1.1900. Sell below 1.1650-1.1900 targeting 1.1500-1.1490-1.1450 and 1.1370-1.1300 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1900.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1600
S2     1.1500-1.1450
S3     1.1365

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1660
R2     1.1700
R3     1.1820-1.1900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.205 Buy
20-DMA   1.1661 Sell
50-DMA   1.1790 Sell
100-DMA   1.1909 Buy
200-DMA   1.1885 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   71.712 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0046 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3113/GBP, high of US$1.3206/GBP and settled the day up by 0.388% to close at US$1.3191/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3145-1.3300 with targets at 1.3100-1.3060 and 1.2990-1.2920. Buy above 1.3100-1.2920 with targets 1.3145-1.3200-1.3260 and 1.3300-1.3360 with stop loss closing below 1.2920.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3145-1.3100
S2     1.3050
S3     1.2990-1.2920

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3200
R2     1.3260-1.3310
R3     1.3390

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

40.145

Buy
20-DMA   1.3252 Buy
50-DMA   1.3420 Buy
100-DMA   1.3547 Buy
200-DMA   1.3514 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   40.006 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0079 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY110.49/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.12/USD and settled the day down by 0.297% at JPY110.55/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.00-112.70 with risk above 112.70 targeting 109.00-108.40 and 107.60-107.00. Long positions above 109.80-107.60 with targets of 109.80-110.50-111.00 and 111.50-112.00 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.80
S2     109.00
S3     108.50-107.60

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.00
R2     111.40-112.00
R3     112.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.504 Buy
20-DMA   110.24 Buy
50-DMA   109.71 Buy
100-DMA   109.41 Sell
200-DMA   109.72 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   66.457 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.237 Sell

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