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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares rallied on Monday as favorable U.S. jobs data whetted risk appetites, while sterling wobbled after the shock resignation of two UK ministers over Brexit threatened the survival of Prime Minister Theresa May. The move came just two days after a meeting at May’s Chequers country residence supposedly sealed a cabinet deal on Brexit and underlines the deep divisions in her ruling Conservative Party over the departure from the EU. Sentiment in other markets was mostly positive after Friday’s U.S. payrolls report showed tame wages and more people looking for work. China’s securities regulator said on Sunday it plans to ease restrictions on foreign investment in stock listed on the Shanghai or Shenzhen exchanges to attract more foreign capital and support the economy. The focus this week would be on Chinese data for June covering inflation, new loans and international trade. The United States also releases inflation figures, while the Bank of Canada might well hike rates on Wednesday. In currency markets, the U.S. dollar was mostly softer following the jobs report, with sterling being an outlier. The dollar traded near its 3-1/2-week lows against its peers on Monday after data last week showed slower-than-expected wage growth. The data showed average U.S. hourly earnings gained five cents, or 0.2% in June after increasing 0.3% in May. Meanwhile, nonfarm payrolls rise by a stronger-than-expected 213,000 in June, although its impact on currencies seem to be limited.
  • The Bank of Japan maintained its upbeat economic assessment for all nine regions of the country on Monday and its governor voiced confidence that inflation will head toward his 2 percent target, suggesting that monetary policy will be on hold for the time being. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda attends a news conference at the BOJ headquarters in Tokyo, Japan June 15, 2018. In a quarterly report on regional conditions, the central bank said all areas were either recovering or expanding thanks to robust overseas demand, a tightening job market and improving private consumption. Kuroda also reiterated the BOJ will maintain its ultra-loose policy until inflation hits its 2 percent target. The BOJ revised up its assessment on capital expenditure for three of the nine regions, saying many companies have ramped up spending on plant and equipment to streamline operations as they struggle to hire employees in a tight job market. But some firms pointed to risks such as rising costs from labor shortages and the impact of escalating trade frictions between the United States and China, the official said. Heavy rain in western Japan recently also could have an impact on plant operations and goods distribution, though the overall effect on the economy was still unknown, the official added. Rescuers dug through mud and rubble on Monday, racing to find survivors after torrential rains unleashed floods and landslides that killed more than 100 people, with dozens missing. More than five years of heavy money printing have helped reflate the economy but failed to fire up inflation, which remains well below the BOJ’s ambitious target. The BOJ’s regional report is among factors the central bank will scrutinize at its next rate review on July 30-31. Japan’s government forecast last week that the economy will grow faster than private-sector projections in fiscal 2019, with exports, consumption and capital spending expected to offset the hit from a planned sales tax hike next year.
  • Oil prices rose on Monday after data last week showed U.S. crude inventories fell to their lowest in three years. Trade dispute between the U.S. and China remained in focus. Official data showed on Thursday that inventories at Cushing, the delivery point for U.S. crude futures, fell to their lowest in 3-1/2 years. The OPEC and other countries agreed earlier this month to a moderate boost in output. Meanwhile, traders remain cautious over the trade conflict between the U.S. and China, although analysts said concerns that oil prices would be weighted down by the development have faded somewhat. The U.S. tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods came into effect on Friday. Trump told reporters that another $16 billion are expected to go into effect in two weeks, and that he is considering to impose additional tariffs on $500 billion in Chinese goods if Beijing retaliate. In response, China followed up by imposing duties on the same value of U.S. products. China's Ministry of Commerce said it had no choice but to respond to the U.S. after the latter "launched the largest trade war in economic history." In other news, Iran's oil minister on Saturday accused U.S. President Donald Trump of insulting OPEC by ordering it to increase production and reduce prices, adding that the country’s oil production and exports had not changed as a result of U.S. pressure.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
9th July 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,260-1,265 1,271 1,278
Silver-XAG 16.40-16.60 17.00 17.35
Crude Oil 72.50-73.20 74.00 75.00-75.50
EURO/USD 1.1820-1.1900 1.1950 1.2010
GBP/USD 1.3310-1.3390 1.3450 1.3500
USD/JPY 111.00 111.40-112.00 112.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
9th July 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,251 1,240-1,236 1,220
Silver-XAG 16.00 15.60-15.30 14.80
Crude Oil 72.00-71.50 70.70 69.60-69.00
EURO/USD 1.1720-1.1660 1.1600 1.1500-1.1450
GBP/USD 1.3260-1.3200 1.3145 1.3100-1.3050
USD/JPY 109.80 109.00 108.50-107.60

Intra-Day Strategy (9th July 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1258.64/oz and low of US$1252.70/oz. Gold was up by 0.352% at US$1254.84/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1284) and breakage above will call for 1296-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1251-1271 keeping stop loss closing above 1290 and targeting 1240-1236 and 1220-1214. Buy above 1240-1214 with risk below 1214, targeting 1251-1260-1265 and 1271-1278.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,251
S2     1,240-1,236
S3     1,220
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,260-1,265
R2     1,271
R3     1,278

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

41.169

Buy
20-DMA   1265.48 Sell
50-DMA  

1283.98

Sell
100-DMA   1296.50 Sell
200-DMA   1296.82 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   84.225 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -10.407 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$16.08/oz and low of US$15.93/oz. Silver settled down by 0.1625% at US$16.02/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.00-14.90 targeting 16.35-16.60-17.00 and 17.75-18.20; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.60-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.60-16.30-16.00 and 15.60-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.00
S2     15.60-15.30
S3     14.80

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.40-16.60
R2     17.00
R3     17.35

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.975 Buy
20-DMA   16.22 Sell
50-DMA   16.48 Sell
100-DMA   16.48 Sell
200-DMA   16.62 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   79.5225 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.140 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$72.44/bbl, intraday low of US$70.66/bbl and settled down by 1.103% to close at US$72.39/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 72.50-76.20 with stop loss at 76.20; targeting 71.50-70.70 and 69.60-69.00. Buy above 72.00-69.00 with risk daily closing below 69.60 and targeting 71.90-72.50-73.20 and 74.00-75.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     72.00-71.50
S2     70.70
S3     69.60-69.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     72.50-73.20
R2     74.00
R3     75.00-75.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.212 Sell
20-DMA   70.27 Buy
50-DMA   68.67 Buy
100-DMA   66.63 Buy
200-DMA   62.83 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   44.812 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.478 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1679/EUR, high of US$1.1767//EUR and settled the day up by 0.461% to close at US$1.1743/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1720-1.1450 with risk below 1.1300 targeting 1.1720-1.1800 and 1.1900-1.1950. Sell below 1.1820-1.2010 targeting 1.1720-1.1660-1.1600 and 1.1490-1.1450 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2010.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1720-1.1660
S2     1.1600
S3     1.1500-1.1450

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1820-1.1900
R2     1.1950
R3     1.2010

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.326 Buy
20-DMA   1.1680 Sell
50-DMA   1.1774 Sell
100-DMA   1.1898 Buy
200-DMA   1.1876 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   87.735 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3202/GBP, high of US$1.3274/GBP and settled the day down by 0.529% to close at US$1.3286/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3310-1.3500 with targets at 1.3260-1.3200-1.3145 and 1.3100-1.3060. Buy above 1.3260-1.2920 with targets 1.3310-1.3360 and 1.3450-1.3500 with stop loss closing below 1.2920.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3260-1.3200
S2     1.3145
S3     1.3100-1.3050

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3310-1.3390
R2     1.3450
R3     1.3500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

52.872

Buy
20-DMA   1.3244 Buy
50-DMA   1.3391 Buy
100-DMA   1.3522 Buy
200-DMA   1.3503 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.303 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0051 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY110.37/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.78/USD and settled the day down by 0.126% at JPY110.46/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.00-112.70 with risk above 112.70 targeting 109.00-108.40 and 107.60-107.00. Long positions above 109.80-107.60 with targets of 109.80-110.50-111.00 and 111.50-112.00 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.80
S2     109.00
S3     108.50-107.60

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.00
R2     111.40-112.00
R3     112.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.504 Buy
20-DMA   110.24 Buy
50-DMA   109.71 Buy
100-DMA   109.41 Sell
200-DMA   109.72 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   66.457 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.237 Sell

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