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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares rallied for a third session on Tuesday as hopes for upbeat corporate earnings buoyed Wall Street, while several high-profile resignations from Britain's government kept sterling on the defensive. Investors have been on edge recently with the United States and China slapping levies on each other's exports, spurring fears of a global growth slowdown and hurting stocks and commodities. The story in currency markets was all about political capers in London. Prime Minister Theresa May's foreign minister and Brexit negotiator quit on Monday in protest at her plans to keep close trade ties with the European Union after Britain leaves the bloc, stirring rebellion in her party's ranks. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson stepped down just hours after Brexit minister David Davis's resignation, emboldening some in her Conservative Party to mull a plot to unseat her. Markets still think it likely the Bank of England will hike rates in August, but a full-blown political crisis could change that. The pound's pain was a boon for the U.S. dollar which rallied broadly on expectations the Federal Reserve will keep raising its interest rates.
  • The Chinese yuan continued to rebound from multi-month lows while the U.S. dollar remained flat in morning trade in Asia Tuesday. The dollar had rebounded overnight from its lowest point in more than three weeks, spurred by flight from the UK pound sterling. Political turmoil in the UK caused by the resignation of Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson helped shore up the greenback. China's foreign exchange reserves unexpectedly rose $1.51 billion in June to $3.112 trillion, despite expectations of a drop of $10.6 billion. At least for today, the markets seem to be putting the trade dispute between the U.S. and China in the back burner, choosing instead to focus on economic data and the turmoil in the UK. Japan’s current account surplus narrowed to JPY1.85 billion, according to data released Monday, easily beating estimates of JPY1.18 billion. The British pound was frail on Tuesday after the departure of two key eurosceptic ministers raised worries about a "hard Brexit" while the yen retreated against the dollar as investors bid up riskier assets. Sterling stood at $1.3248 , having fallen to as low as $1.3189 on Monday, after Prime Minister Theresa May's foreign minister and Brexit negotiator quit in protest at her plans to keep close trade ties with the European Union. The currency regained some ground after several Conservative lawmakers said May is likely safe from a leadership challenge despite the resignation of Boris Johnson and Brexit minister David Davis. Still, after two years of wrangling, their departures shatter May's own proclamation of cabinet unity last Friday in what she believed was an agreement on Britain's biggest foreign and trading policy shift in almost half a century.
  • Oil prices rose on Tuesday as hundreds of oil workers in Norway were set to strike later in the day, raising concerns of potential supply shortages. Analysts said the strike would likely affect the production of at least one field, Shell’s Knarr, and could potentially adds to disruptions in other oil producers. Meanwhile, United Araba Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said the OPEC and its allies are “doing what they could” to offset crude output shortfalls. “It’s unfair to say that OPEC is not doing its part,” Al Mazrouei, who’s also serving as president of OPEC, said in an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday. “There are things outside of our hand, the geopolitics as well as how much production is coming from the shale oil and Canadian sands.” Al Mazrouei then said OPEC should not shoulder the blame. “OPEC alone cannot be blamed for all the problems that are happening in the oil industry, but at the same time we were responsive in terms of the measures we took in our latest meeting in June.” Trump accused OPEC in recent weeks of driving oil prices higher and urged Saudi Arabia to raise supplies to compensate for lower exports from Iran. Oil prices were under pressure in the previous session as Canada's Syncrude operations are set to resume activity sooner than expected. Suncor Energy said Monday its Syncrude oil sands project in Canada would resume some production in July, sooner than expected, and hit full capacity in September, following an outage last month that disrupted total output. This could boost crude supplies across North America at a time when inventories at Cushing, Okla., the delivery point for U.S. crude futures, fell to their lowest level in 3-1/2 years.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
10th July 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,260-1,265 1,271 1,278
Silver-XAG 16.40-16.60 17.00 17.35
Crude Oil 73.20 74.00 75.00-75.50
EURO/USD 1.1820-1.1900 1.1950 1.2010
GBP/USD 1.3300-1.3390 1.3450 1.3500
USD/JPY 111.00 111.40-112.00 112.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
10th July 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,251 1,240-1,236 1,220
Silver-XAG 16.00 15.60-15.30 14.80
Crude Oil 72.50-72.00 71.50 70.70-69.60
EURO/USD 1.1720-1.1660 1.1600 1.1500-1.1450
GBP/USD 1.3200 1.3145 1.3100-1.3050
USD/JPY 109.80 109.00 108.50-107.60

Intra-Day Strategy (10th July 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1265.83/oz and low of US$1254.73/oz. Gold was up by 0.171% at US$1257.35/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1284) and breakage above will call for 1296-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1251-1271 keeping stop loss closing above 1290 and targeting 1240-1236 and 1220-1214. Buy above 1240-1214 with risk below 1214, targeting 1251-1260-1265 and 1271-1278.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,251
S2     1,240-1,236
S3     1,220
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,260-1,265
R2     1,271
R3     1,278

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

36.5432

Buy
20-DMA   1266.08 Sell
50-DMA  

1284.97

Sell
100-DMA   1297.24 Sell
200-DMA   1297.19 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   79.835 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.871 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$16.20/oz and low of US$16.01/oz. Silver settled down by 0.436% at US$16.09/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.00-14.90 targeting 16.35-16.60-17.00 and 17.75-18.20; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.60-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.60-16.30-16.00 and 15.60-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.00
S2     15.60-15.30
S3     14.80

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.40-16.60
R2     17.00
R3     17.35

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.975 Buy
20-DMA   16.22 Sell
50-DMA   16.48 Sell
100-DMA   16.48 Sell
200-DMA   16.62 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   79.5225 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.140 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$72.44/bbl, intraday low of US$70.66/bbl and settled down by 1.103% to close at US$72.39/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 72.50-76.20 with stop loss at 76.20; targeting 71.50-70.70 and 69.60-69.00. Buy above 72.00-69.00 with risk daily closing below 69.60 and targeting 71.90-72.50-73.20 and 74.00-75.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     72.50-72.00
S2     71.50
S3     70.70-69.60

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     73.20
R2     74.00
R3     75.00-75.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.717 Sell
20-DMA   70.29 Buy
50-DMA   68.67 Buy
100-DMA   66.63 Buy
200-DMA   62.83 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   46.688 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.491 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1731/EUR, high of US$1.1790//EUR and settled the day up by 0.093% to close at US$1.1749/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1720-1.1450 with risk below 1.1300 targeting 1.1720-1.1800 and 1.1900-1.1950. Sell below 1.1820-1.2010 targeting 1.1720-1.1660-1.1600 and 1.1490-1.1450 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2010.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1720-1.1660
S2     1.1600
S3     1.1500-1.1450

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1820-1.1900
R2     1.1950
R3     1.2010

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.005 Buy
20-DMA   1.1678 Sell
50-DMA   1.1773 Sell
100-DMA   1.1889 Buy
200-DMA   1.1876 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   81.370 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0013 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3188/GBP, high of US$1.3316/GBP and settled the day down by 0.450% to close at US$1.3254/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3310-1.3500 with targets at 1.3260-1.3200-1.3145 and 1.3100-1.3060. Buy above 1.3200-1.2920 with targets 1.3310-1.3360 and 1.3450-1.3500 with stop loss closing below 1.2920.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3200
S2     1.3145
S3     1.3100-1.3050

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3300-1.3390
R2     1.3450
R3     1.3500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

52.872

Buy
20-DMA   1.3244 Buy
50-DMA   1.3391 Buy
100-DMA   1.3522 Buy
200-DMA   1.3503 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.303 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0051 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY110.34/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.89/USD and settled the day up by 0.416% at JPY110.83/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.00-112.70 with risk above 112.70 targeting 109.00-108.40 and 107.60-107.00. Long positions above 109.80-107.60 with targets of 109.80-110.50-111.00 and 111.50-112.00 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.80
S2     109.00
S3     108.50-107.60

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.00
R2     111.40-112.00
R3     112.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.104 Buy
20-DMA   110.42 Buy
50-DMA   109.87 Buy
100-DMA   109.52 Sell
200-DMA   109.76 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   59.825 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.272 Sell

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