AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • A sell-off in Chinese markets knocked Asian stocks on Wednesday as U.S. threats of tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods pushed the world's two biggest economies ever closer to a full-scale trade war. Washington proposed the extra tariffs after efforts to negotiate a solution to the dispute failed to reach an agreement, senior administration officials said on Tuesday. The United States had just imposed tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods on Friday, drawing immediate retaliatory duties from Beijing on U.S. imports in the first shots of a heated trade war. U.S. President Donald Trump had warned then that his country may ultimately impose tariffs on more than $500 billion worth of Chinese imports - roughly the total amount of U.S. imports from China last year. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.1 percent. The index had gained for the past two sessions, having enjoyed a lull from the trade war fears that lashed global markets last week. Investors worry a full-blown Sino-U.S. trade conflict could hurt global exports, investment and growth. The yen, often sought in times of political tensions and market turmoil, gained against a number of peers.
  • More American workers voluntarily quit their jobs in May, government data showed on Tuesday, a sign of confidence in the labor market that economists say will soon boost wage growth. In its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, the Labor Department said the number of workers leaving jobs of their own free will increased 212,000 to 3.3 million. That lifted the quits rate one-tenth of a percentage point to 2.4 percent, the highest since April 2001. The rise in the quits rate, which policymakers and economists view as a measure of job market confidence, bolsters expectations that wage gains will accelerate this year. Wage inflation has remained moderate despite tightening labor market conditions. Annual wage growth as measured by average hourly earnings has struggled to break 3 percent, increasing 2.7 percent in June. Labor market strength and steadily rising inflation likely keep the Federal Reserve on course to raise interest rates again in August. The U.S. central bank increased borrowing costs in June for a second time this year and forecast two more rate hikes by the end of 2018. Workers voluntarily quitting their jobs in May were concentrated in the health care and social assistance, finance and insurance, utilities, transportation and warehousing industries. The decline in job openings came as hiring increased by 173,000 to 5.8 million in May. The hires rate rose one-tenth of a percentage point to 3.9 percent, the highest since March 2007. There was a job for every unemployed person seeking one in May. The Labor Department also said it had identified errors in the JOLTS data for the federal government from January 2011 to April 2018. It said these data had been “suppressed” from the database and would be reissued.
  • Oil prices fell on Wednesday, with Brent dropping by more than $1 at one point, after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to levy new trade tariffs on China. The specter of tariffs on a further $200 billion worth of Chinese goods sent commodities lower along with stock markets, as trade tensions between the world's two biggest economies intensified. The bearish mood was also fueled by news the United States would consider requests for waivers from sanctions due to snap back into place on Iranian crude exports. Washington will consider requests from some countries to be exempted from sanctions it will put into effect in November to prevent Iran from exporting oil, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Tuesday. Washington had earlier told countries they must halt all imports of Iranian oil from Nov. 4 or face U.S. financial measures, with no exemptions. The U.S. pulled out of a multinational deal in May to lift sanctions against Iran in return for curbs to its nuclear program. U.S. crude inventories fell last week by 6.8 million barrels, according to data from industry group, the American Petroleum Institute. Analysts polled by Reuters forecast that crude stocks fell on average by 4.5 million barrels, ahead of government data at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Wednesday. U.S. crude oil production is expected to average more than 12 million barrels per day late next year for the first time, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a monthly report on Tuesday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
11th July 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,260-1,265 1,271 1,278
Silver-XAG 16.40-16.60 17.00 17.35
Crude Oil 72.50-73.20 74.00 75.00-75.50
EURO/USD 1.1770 1.1820-1.1900 1.1950
GBP/USD 1.3300-1.3390 1.3450 1.3500
USD/JPY 111.00 111.40-112.00 112.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
11th July 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,251 1,240-1,236 1,220
Silver-XAG 15.90 15.60-15.30 14.80
Crude Oil 72.00 71.50 70.70-69.60
EURO/USD 1.1720-1.1660 1.1600 1.1500-1.1450
GBP/USD 1.3250-1.3200 1.3145 1.3100-1.3050
USD/JPY 109.80 109.00 108.50-107.60

Intra-Day Strategy (11th July 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1260.23/oz and low of US$1247.29/oz. Gold down up by 0.158% at US$1255.40/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1284) and breakage above will call for 1296-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1251-1271 keeping stop loss closing above 1290 and targeting 1240-1236 and 1220-1214. Buy above 1240-1214 with risk below 1214, targeting 1251-1260-1265 and 1271-1278.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,251
S2     1,240-1,236
S3     1,220
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,260-1,265
R2     1,271
R3     1,278

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

36.5432

Buy
20-DMA   1266.08 Sell
50-DMA  

1284.97

Sell
100-DMA   1297.24 Sell
200-DMA   1297.19 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   49.835 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -10.270 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$16.14/oz and low of US$15.88/oz. Silver settled down by 0.124% at US$16.04/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.00-14.90 targeting 16.35-16.60-17.00 and 17.75-18.20; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.60-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.60-16.30-16.00 and 15.60-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.90
S2     15.60-15.30
S3     14.80

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.40-16.60
R2     17.00
R3     17.35

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.865 Buy
20-DMA   16.17 Sell
50-DMA   16.34 Sell
100-DMA   16.46 Sell
200-DMA   16.61 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   53.303 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.140 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$73.36/bbl, intraday low of US$72.49/bbl and settled up by 0.578% to close at US$73.01/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 72.50-76.20 with stop loss at 76.20; targeting 71.50-70.70 and 69.60-69.00. Buy above 72.00-69.00 with risk daily closing below 69.60 and targeting 71.90-72.50-73.20 and 74.00-75.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     72.00
S2     71.50
S3     70.70-69.60

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     72.50-73.20
R2     74.00
R3     75.00-75.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.311 Sell
20-DMA   70.72 Buy
50-DMA   68.98 Buy
100-DMA   66.87 Buy
200-DMA   63.03 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   69.848 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.467 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1689/EUR, high of US$1.1761//EUR and settled the day down by 0.0425% to close at US$1.1743/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1720-1.1450 with risk below 1.1300 targeting 1.1720-1.1800 and 1.1900-1.1950. Sell below 1.1820-1.2010 targeting 1.1720-1.1660-1.1600 and 1.1490-1.1450 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2010.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1720-1.1660
S2     1.1600
S3     1.1500-1.1450

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1770
R2     1.1820-1.1900
R3     1.1950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.8282 Buy
20-DMA   1.1689 Sell
50-DMA   1.1771 Sell
100-DMA   1.1883 Buy
200-DMA   1.1873 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   69.970 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0013 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3222/GBP, high of US$1.3300/GBP and settled the day down by 0.113% to close at US$1.3269/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3310-1.3500 with targets at 1.3260-1.3200-1.3145 and 1.3100-1.3060. Buy above 1.3200-1.2920 with targets 1.3310-1.3360 and 1.3450-1.3500 with stop loss closing below 1.2920.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3250-1.3200
S2     1.3145
S3     1.3100-1.3050

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3300-1.3390
R2     1.3450
R3     1.3500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.742

Buy
20-DMA   1.3249 Buy
50-DMA   1.3377 Buy
100-DMA   1.3507 Buy
200-DMA   1.3496 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   53.087 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0051 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY110.28/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.35/USD and settled the day up by 0.126% at JPY110.97/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.00-112.70 with risk above 112.70 targeting 109.00-108.40 and 107.60-107.00. Long positions above 109.80-107.60 with targets of 109.80-110.50-111.00 and 111.50-112.00 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.80
S2     109.00
S3     108.50-107.60

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.00
R2     111.40-112.00
R3     112.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.104 Buy
20-DMA   110.42 Buy
50-DMA   109.87 Buy
100-DMA   109.52 Sell
200-DMA   109.76 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   59.825 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.272 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING