AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Stocks and commodities recovered slightly on Thursday as markets tried to consolidate from the previous session's steep losses when fears of an escalation in the U.S.-China trade war jolted investor sentiment. The index slumped 1 percent on Wednesday along with a slide in global equities after U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to imposing tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese goods deepened the trade row between the world's two largest economies. Focus turned to what the next steps in the tit-for-tat trade conflict might be. China has accused the United States of bullying and warned it could hit back, although the form of retaliation was not clear. The yuan firmed after the currency's Thursday midpoint, set by the People's Bank of China, was not as weak as the market braced for. The dollar was buoyant, supported by mounting trade tensions and Wednesday's strong U.S. inflation data.
  • The Dollar firmed against its peers and traded near a six-month high against the yen on Thursday as the U.S. Labor Department's expectation-beating inflation report boosted confidence in the world's top economy. The latest U.S. economic data reaffirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates two more times this year. The Chinese yuan sank as much as 1.1% overnight and saw its biggest loss since January 2016 amid escalating trade concerns between the U.S. and China. The latest trade development also pushed the Chinese equity markets into their worst selloff since three years ago. On Wednesday, the Trump administration threaten to impose tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods. The 10% tariffs will not take effect immediately but will undergo a two-month review process. In response, China's commerce ministry said in a statement released around midday on Wednesday that it was "shocked" by the latest U.S. trade action and urged international community to work together against the trade bullying, while calling the actions "completely unacceptable".  Looking forward, traders will be watching to see what Chinese policymakers do to defend the Chinese currency. The Chinese authorities made remarks last week to assure markets it would keep the currency stable.
  • Gold prices were little changed on Thursday as the dollar firmed against its peers after a expectation-beating inflation report reaffirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve would hike interest rates two more times this year. The Labor Department said on Wednesday its producer price index for final demand increased 0.3% last month, compared to the expected 0.2%. A stronger dollar and higher interest rates reduce demand for non-interest bearing gold as the metal becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies. Trade concerns also remained in focus as the latest development pushed the Chinese equity markets into their worst selloff since three years ago.  On Wednesday, the Trump administration threaten to impose tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods. The 10% tariffs will not take effect immediately but will undergo a two-month review process.  In response, China's commerce ministry said in a statement released around midday on Wednesday that it was "shocked" by the latest U.S. trade action and urged international community to work together against the trade bullying, while calling the actions "completely unacceptable".
  • Brent crude rose more than $1 on Thursday, recouping some ground after its biggest one-day drop in two years during the previous session after Libya said it would resume oil exports and U.S.-China trade tensions raised demand concerns. The announcement by Libya's National Oil Corp that four export terminals were being reopened, ending a standoff that had shut down most of Libya's oil output, was one of the catalysts for a correction, analysts said. The reopening allows the return of as much as 850,000 barrels per day of crude into international markets, while an escalating U.S.-China trade row has raised concerns about demand. Oil had some supportive news late on Wednesday that U.S. crude oil stocks fell by nearly 13 million barrels last week, the most in nearly two years, dropping overall crude stocks to their lowest point since February 2015. The decline in overall inventories was partially due to a fall-off in stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for U.S. crude futures, which were down by 2.1 million barrels.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
12th July 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,251 1,260-1,265 1,271
Silver-XAG 16.40-16.60 17.00 17.35
Crude Oil 70.00-70.70 71.50 72.00-72.50
EURO/USD 1.1720-1.1770 1.1820 1.1900-1.1950
GBP/USD 1.3300-1.3390 1.3450 1.3500
USD/JPY 112.70-113.50 114.00 114.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
12th July 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,240-1,236 1,220 1,214
Silver-XAG 15.80 15.60-15.30 14.80
Crude Oil 68.90-68.00 67.60 66.90
EURO/USD 1.1660 1.1600 1.1500-1.1450
GBP/USD 1.3250-1.3200 1.3145 1.3100-1.3050
USD/JPY 112.00-111.40 110.90 109.80-109.00

Intra-Day Strategy (12th July 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1256.76/oz and low of US$1241.46/oz. Gold down down by 1.083% at US$1241.98/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1284) and breakage above will call for 1296-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1251-1271 keeping stop loss closing above 1290 and targeting 1240-1236 and 1220-1214. Buy above 1240-1214 with risk below 1214, targeting 1251-1260-1265 and 1271-1278.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,240-1,236
S2     1,220
S3     1,214
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,251
R2     1,260-1,265
R3     1,271

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

32.538

Buy
20-DMA   1260.44 Sell
50-DMA  

1279.71

Sell
100-DMA   1293.57 Sell
200-DMA   1295.32 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   16.834 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.191 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$16.05/oz and low of US$15.88/oz. Silver settled down by 1.560% at US$15.77/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.00-14.90 targeting 16.35-16.60-17.00 and 17.75-18.20; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.60-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.60-16.30-16.00 and 15.60-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.80
S2     15.60-15.30
S3     14.80

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.40-16.60
R2     17.00
R3     17.35

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.865 Buy
20-DMA   16.17 Sell
50-DMA   16.34 Sell
100-DMA   16.46 Sell
200-DMA   16.61 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   53.303 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.140 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$72.97/bbl, intraday low of US$68.68/bbl and settled down by 4.786% to close at US$69.43/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 70.00-72.50 with stop loss at 72.50; targeting 68.90-68.00-67.60 and 66.90-66.00. Buy above 70.00-72.50 with risk daily closing below 69.60 and targeting 71.90-72.50-73.20 and 74.00-75.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     68.90-68.00
S2     67.60
S3     66.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     70.00-70.70
R2     71.50
R3     72.00-72.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.096 Sell
20-DMA   70.34 Buy
50-DMA   68.89 Buy
100-DMA   66.86 Buy
200-DMA   63.06 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   32.089 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.001 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1669/EUR, high of US$1.1686//EUR and settled the day down by 0.0685% to close at US$1.1677/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1660-1.1450 with risk below 1.1400 targeting 1.1720-1.1800 and 1.1900-1.1950. Sell below 1.1720-1.1950 targeting 1.1660-1.1600 and 1.1490-1.1450 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2010.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1660
S2     1.1600
S3     1.1500-1.1450

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1720-1.1770
R2     1.1820
R3     1.1900-1.1950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.559 Buy
20-DMA   1.1682 Sell
50-DMA   1.1765 Sell
100-DMA   1.1878 Buy
200-DMA   1.1878 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   35.475 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0007 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3222/GBP, high of US$1.3300/GBP and settled the day down by 0.113% to close at US$1.3269/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3310-1.3500 with targets at 1.3260-1.3200-1.3145 and 1.3100-1.3060. Buy above 1.3200-1.2920 with targets 1.3310-1.3360 and 1.3450-1.3500 with stop loss closing below 1.2920.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3250-1.3200
S2     1.3145
S3     1.3100-1.3050

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3300-1.3390
R2     1.3450
R3     1.3500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.742

Buy
20-DMA   1.3249 Buy
50-DMA   1.3377 Buy
100-DMA   1.3507 Buy
200-DMA   1.3496 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   53.087 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0051 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY110.76/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.71/USD and settled the day up by 0.900% at JPY111.98/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.70-114.90 with risk above 114.90 targeting 112.70-111.40-110.90 and 110.90-109.80-109.00. Long positions above 109.80-109.00 with targets of 109.80-110.50-111.00 and 111.50-112.00 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.00-111.40
S2     110.90
S3     109.80-109.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.70-113.50
R2     114.00
R3     114.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   70.366 Buy
20-DMA   110.56 Buy
50-DMA   109.95 Buy
100-DMA   109.56 Sell
200-DMA   109.78 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   77.824 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.537 Sell

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