AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Most Asian share markets rose on Friday, heartened by gains on Wall Street fueled by expectations of strong U.S. earnings, but China's markets wobbled as investors braced for the impact of broadening, tit-for-tat Chinese-U.S tariffs. Adding to fears that even stronger punitive measures from Washington may be on the way, China reported a trade surplus with the United States of $28.97 billion in June, the highest on record, according to Reuters calculations. China's overall global export growth topped expectations, however, possibly as its exporters and big American customers rushed to beat U.S. tariffs. Shares in Asia have been see-sawing as investors ponder the impact of Washington's planned 10 percent tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese imports. The U.S. slapped import tariffs of 25 percent on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods on July 6, prompting a matching response from China. While China has vowed to retaliate to the new tariffs, the lack of a specific response to date has sparked global relief, helped by expectations of strong corporate earnings. Offering some reassurance to investors spooked by trade war concerns, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Thursday that the U.S. and China could reopen trade talks, but only if Beijing was willing "to make serious efforts to make structural changes."
  • Dollar rose on Friday, trading near a 10-day peak after U.S. consumer prices data on Thursday showed a build-up of inflation pressure that would allow the Fed to raise rates as many as four times this year. A trade spat between the U.S. and China escalated on Wednesday after Washington threatened to slap 10% tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. The tit-for-tat tariffs have fueled worries that the world’s two largest economies could descend into an all-out trade war, which investors fear could hit global growth. The dollar this week has strengthened roughly 2% against the Japanese yen, which normally is bought as a safe haven in times of political tension and market turmoil. Elsewhere, the pound slipped to a one-week low as U.S. President Donald Trump warned U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May that her soft Brexit proposal could have an “negative impact” on the trade deal with the U.S. The dollar was buoyant near a 10-day peak on Friday, supported by Treasury yields that edged higher on expectations the U.S. inflation rate will rise. Short to long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose after U.S. consumer prices data on Thursday showed a steady buildup of inflation pressure that could allow the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates as many as four times in 2018. Working in favor of the greenback, emerging market and commodity-linked currencies took hits this week after the United States threatened to impose tariffs on more Chinese goods, escalating the trade war between the world's two biggest economies. The dollar this week has strengthened significantly against the Japanese yen, which normally is bought as a safe haven in times of political tension and market turmoil.
  • Oil prices were little changed on Friday as markets digested big swings earlier in the week that have left both major benchmarks facing a second weekly loss and largely shrugged off a warning about tightness in spare capacity. It has been a wild week for oil prices with both the main benchmarks suffering heavy losses on Wednesday as traders focused on the return of Libyan oil to the market amid concerns about a China-U.S. trade war. However, a warning on spare capacity by the International Energy Agency (IEA) pushed Brent higher on Thursday, helping it recoup some losses. The OPEC and other key producers including Russia have responded to the recent market tightness by easing a supply-cut agreement. The IEA cautioned that the world's oil supply cushion "might be stretched to the limit" due to production losses in several different countries. China's crude oil imports fell for a second month in a row in June as shrinking margins and volatile oil prices led some independent refiners, known as "teapots", to scale back purchases, official data showed on Friday. Oil prices slipped on Friday as concerns about a China-U.S. trade war and the return of Libyan oil to the market continued to be cited as catalysts for the selling. The Libya's National Oil Corp announced on Wednesday that four export terminals were being reopened and allowed the return of as much as 850,000 barrels per day of oil into the markets, ending a standoff that had shut down most of Libya's oil output. Saudi Arabia increased production by 430,000 barrels a day in June, the IEA said. That, however, was offset somewhat by falling Iranian exports, as European traders trimmed their imports ahead of U.S. sanctions on Tehran, which come into effect in November.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
13th July 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,251 1,260-1,265 1,271
Silver-XAG 16.40-16.60 17.00 17.35
Crude Oil 70.00-70.70 71.50 72.00-72.50
EURO/USD 1.1720-1.1770 1.1820 1.1900-1.1950
GBP/USD 1.3200 1.3250 1.3300-1.3390
USD/JPY 112.70-113.50 114.00 114.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
13th July 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,240-1,236 1,220 1,214
Silver-XAG 15.80 15.60-15.30 14.80
Crude Oil 68.90-68.00 67.60 66.90
EURO/USD 1.1660 1.1600 1.1500-1.1450
GBP/USD 1.3145 1.3100-1.3050 1.3010
USD/JPY 112.00-111.40 110.90 109.80-109.00

Intra-Day Strategy (13th July 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1248.50/oz and low of US$1241.20/oz. Gold down down by 0.4074% at US$1246.95/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1284) and breakage above will call for 1296-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1251-1271 keeping stop loss closing above 1290 and targeting 1240-1236 and 1220-1214. Buy above 1240-1214 with risk below 1214, targeting 1251-1260-1265 and 1271-1278.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,240-1,236
S2     1,220
S3     1,214
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,251
R2     1,260-1,265
R3     1,271

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

34.831

Buy
20-DMA   1259.30 Sell
50-DMA  

1278.49

Sell
100-DMA   1292.68 Sell
200-DMA   1294.86 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   10.840 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.191 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$15.97/oz and low of US$15.74/oz. Silver settled up by 0.951% at US$15.92/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.00-14.90 targeting 16.35-16.60-17.00 and 17.75-18.20; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.60-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.60-16.30-16.00 and 15.60-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.80
S2     15.60-15.30
S3     14.80

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.40-16.60
R2     17.00
R3     17.35

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.865 Buy
20-DMA   16.17 Sell
50-DMA   16.34 Sell
100-DMA   16.46 Sell
200-DMA   16.61 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   53.303 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.140 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$69.97/bbl, intraday low of US$68.21/bbl and settled up by 0.173% to close at US$69.48/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 70.00-72.50 with stop loss at 72.50; targeting 68.90-68.00-67.60 and 66.90-66.00. Buy above 70.00-72.50 with risk daily closing below 69.60 and targeting 71.90-72.50-73.20 and 74.00-75.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     68.90-68.00
S2     67.60
S3     66.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     70.00-70.70
R2     71.50
R3     72.00-72.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.096 Sell
20-DMA   70.34 Buy
50-DMA   68.89 Buy
100-DMA   66.86 Buy
200-DMA   63.06 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   32.089 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.001 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1649/EUR, high of US$1.1695//EUR and settled the day up by 0.017% to close at US$1.1669/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1660-1.1450 with risk below 1.1400 targeting 1.1720-1.1800 and 1.1900-1.1950. Sell below 1.1720-1.1950 targeting 1.1660-1.1600 and 1.1490-1.1450 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2010.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1660
S2     1.1600
S3     1.1500-1.1450

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1720-1.1770
R2     1.1820
R3     1.1900-1.1950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.408 Buy
20-DMA   1.1679 Sell
50-DMA   1.1760 Sell
100-DMA   1.1873 Buy
200-DMA   1.1870 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   47.712 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0008 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.13179/GBP, high of US$1.3243/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0151% to close at US$1.3203/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3310-1.3500 with targets at 1.3260-1.3200-1.3145 and 1.3100-1.3060. Buy above 1.3200-1.2920 with targets 1.3310-1.3360 and 1.3450-1.3500 with stop loss closing below 1.2920.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3145
S2     1.3100-1.3050
S3     1.3010

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3200
R2     1.3250
R3     1.3300-1.3390

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.742

Buy
20-DMA   1.3249 Buy
50-DMA   1.3377 Buy
100-DMA   1.3507 Buy
200-DMA   1.3496 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   53.087 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0051 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY111.90/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.62/USD and settled the day up by 0.482% at JPY111.52/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.70-114.90 with risk above 114.90 targeting 112.70-111.40-110.90 and 110.90-109.80-109.00. Long positions above 109.80-109.00 with targets of 109.80-110.50-111.00 and 111.50-112.00 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.00-111.40
S2     110.90
S3     109.80-109.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.70-113.50
R2     114.00
R3     114.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.983 Buy
20-DMA   110.41 Buy
50-DMA   109.87 Buy
100-DMA   109.52 Sell Sell
200-DMA   109.75 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   52.452 Sell Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.236 Sell Sell

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