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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares fell on Monday as new data showed China's economy slowed slightly in the second quarter, compounded by fears of a full-scale Sino-U.S. trade war looming over markets. Official data showed China's economy grew 6.7 percent in the second quarter of 2018, cooling from the 6.8 percent growth registered in each of the previous three quarters. While the GDP figures were in line with market expectations, the new data also showed slower-than-expected growth in China's industrial output, pointing to slowing momentum and prompting some analysts to call for stronger government measures to support growth. Taken together, the data show an economy continuing to slow under the influence of a multi-year crackdown on excessive financial risk, even as trade war headwinds gather. But Jim McCafferty, head of equity research, Asia ex-Japan at Nomura, said China's underlying economic data "appears to be quite robust" He said concerns over the trade war were dragging down markets, with investors spooked by the ratcheting up of trade war tensions. The soft China data undermined a boost to sentiment from Friday's gains on Wall Street, which were underpinned by strong profits from industrial and energy firms and helped offset investor concerns over the U.S.-China trade war. Major currencies have been in a holding pattern in recent days thanks in part to a lull in China-U.S. trade skirmishing. Investors had also been awaiting the China data, and are still looking to June U.S. retail sales figures, to gauge the state of global growth. The U.S. Federal Reserve reiterated on Friday in its semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to the U.S. Congress that it expected "further gradual increases" in interest rates due to "solid" economic growth. Major currencies held around recent ranges on Monday thanks to a lull in China-U.S. trade skirmishing and as investors await key data from the world’s two biggest economies to determine whether global growth is running out of puff.
  • An employee of a bank counts US dollar notes at a branch in Hanoi, Vietnam May 16, 2016. The dollar index went as high as 95.241 last week but quickly reversed gains after latest trade figures from China suggested the threat of tariffs had not had a significant impact as yet. U.S. President Donald Trump’s summit with his Russian counterpart in Helsinki later this week will also be closely watched. Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell will make a semiannual appearance before Congress later this week. Ahead of the meeting, the central bank released its accompanying policy report which showed U.S. economic growth and the Fed expecting to keep raising rates gradually. The U.S. economy, which is on its second longest expansion on record, has not yet suffered from the ongoing trade row with China. The tone for the two currencies will be set by eurozone inflation data this week and ongoing Brexit discussions with British Prime Minister Theresa May battling for her political survival. On Monday, British lawmakers vote on amendments to legislation on the government’s post-Brexit customs regime. Leading eurosceptics are set to vote in favour of amendments that May opposes and back their own proposals to toughen up her exit plan. While May is not expected to be defeated on the amendments, a high number of votes in favour of altering the customs bill by members of her party could further undermine her negotiating strategy.
  • Oil prices edged lower on Monday as traders awaited the outcome of the first offcial dialogue between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin summit in Helsinki later in the day. Trump has been vocal about his dissatisfaction with higher oil prices and has urged OPEC to lower prices earlier this month. Reports that the U.S. is considering to rein in prices by tapping into its emergency crude supplies were also cited as headwind for oil prices. The Trump’s administration is reportedly mulling the release of oil from the nation’s 660-million-barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve to stabilize rallying gasoline prices. The continued trade concerns between the U.S. and China remained in focus, as traders fear the development could threaten global demand. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Thursday that he and the administration are “available” for discussion, but China must first agree to deeper economic reforms.  Meanwhile, Supply disruptions resulting from strike actions in Norway and Iraq eased on Monday, while reports that Libyan ports resumed export activities pushed oil prices lower. The United States holds a reserve of about 660 million barrels, and the Trump administration was considering drawing on the country's oil reserve, which would increase supply, according to a Bloomberg report. Meanwhile, the number of rigs drilling in the United States was unchanged at 863 in the week to July 13 as the rate of the growth slowed amid a fall in crude prices.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
16th July 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,251 1,260-1,265 1,271
Silver-XAG 16.40-16.60 17.00 17.35
Crude Oil 70.00-70.70 71.50 72.00-72.50
EURO/USD 1.1720-1.1770 1.1820 1.1900-1.1950
GBP/USD 1.3250-1.3300 1.3390 1.3450-1.3490
USD/JPY 112.70-113.50 114.00 114.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
16th July 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,240-1,236 1,220 1,214
Silver-XAG 15.80 15.60-15.30 14.80
Crude Oil 68.90-68.00 67.60 66.90
EURO/USD 1.1660 1.1600 1.1500-1.1450
GBP/USD 1.3200 1.3145 1.3100-1.3050
USD/JPY 112.00-111.40 110.90 109.80-109.00

Intra-Day Strategy (16th July 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1247.96/oz and low of US$1241.45/oz. Gold down by 0.447% at US$1241.45/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1284) and breakage above will call for 1296-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1251-1271 keeping stop loss closing above 1290 and targeting 1240-1236 and 1220-1214. Buy above 1240-1214 with risk below 1214, targeting 1251-1260-1265 and 1271-1278.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,240-1,236
S2     1,220
S3     1,214
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,251
R2     1,260-1,265
R3     1,271

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

34.831

Buy
20-DMA   1259.30 Sell
50-DMA  

1278.49

Sell
100-DMA   1292.68 Sell
200-DMA   1294.86 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   10.840 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.191 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$15.97/oz and low of US$15.67/oz. Silver settled down by 0.641% at US$15.80/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.00-14.90 targeting 16.35-16.60-17.00 and 17.75-18.20; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.60-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.60-16.30-16.00 and 15.60-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.80
S2     15.60-15.30
S3     14.80

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.40-16.60
R2     17.00
R3     17.35

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.865 Buy
20-DMA   16.17 Sell
50-DMA   16.34 Sell
100-DMA   16.46 Sell
200-DMA   16.61 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   53.303 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.140 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$70.69/bbl, intraday low of US$68.85/bbl and settled up by 0.158% to close at US$69.57/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 70.00-72.50 with stop loss at 72.50; targeting 68.90-68.00-67.60 and 66.90-66.00. Buy above 70.00-72.50 with risk daily closing below 69.60 and targeting 71.90-72.50-73.20 and 74.00-75.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     68.90-68.00
S2     67.60
S3     66.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     70.00-70.70
R2     71.50
R3     72.00-72.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.096 Sell
20-DMA   70.34 Buy
50-DMA   68.89 Buy
100-DMA   66.86 Buy
200-DMA   63.06 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   32.089 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.001 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1612/EUR, high of US$1.1686/EUR and settled the day up by 0.137% to close at US$1.1685/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1660-1.1450 with risk below 1.1400, targeting 1.1720-1.1800 and 1.1900-1.1950. Sell below 1.1720-1.1950 targeting 1.1660-1.1600 and 1.1490-1.1450 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2010.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1660
S2     1.1600
S3     1.1500-1.1450

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1720-1.1770
R2     1.1820
R3     1.1900-1.1950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.886 Buy
20-DMA   1.1684 Sell
50-DMA   1.1759 Sell
100-DMA   1.1870 Buy
200-DMA   1.1870 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   39.211 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1310/GBP, high of US$1.3238/GBP and settled the day down by 0.0226% to close at US$1.3234/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3300-1.3500 with targets at 1.3200-1.3145 and 1.3100-1.3060. Buy above 1.3200-1.2920 with targets 1.3310-1.3360 and 1.3450-1.3500 with stop loss closing below 1.2920.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3200
S2     1.3145
S3     1.3100-1.3050

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3250-1.3300
R2     1.3390
R3     1.3450-1.3490

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.537

Buy
20-DMA   1.3239 Buy
50-DMA   1.3358 Buy
100-DMA   1.3489 Buy
200-DMA   1.3487 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   46.857 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0029 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY112.27/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.79/USD and settled the day down by 0.115% at JPY112.38/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.70-114.90 with risk above 114.90 targeting 112.70-111.40-110.90 and 110.90-109.80-109.00. Long positions above 109.80-109.00 with targets of 109.80-110.50-111.00 and 111.50-112.00 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.00-111.40
S2     110.90
S3     109.80-109.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.70-113.50
R2     114.00
R3     114.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   71.101 Buy
20-DMA   110.04 Buy
50-DMA   110.23 Buy
100-DMA   109.73 Sell
200-DMA   109.86 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   86.675 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.593 Sell

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