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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares dipped on Monday while the dollar fell after U.S. President Donald Trump criticized the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and amid reports Japan's central bank could wind back its massive fund purchases. Trump, on Friday, lamented the recent strength of the U.S. dollar and accused the European Union and China of manipulating their currencies Trump's comments against Fed rate hikes eased the greenback and helped steepen the Treasury yield curve. Also playing a role in the global tick-up in yields and declines in the dollar was a Reuters report that the Bank of Japan was in unusually active discussions to modify its massive easing program The BOJ, in turn, offered to buy an unlimited amount of five- to- 10-year Japanese government bonds on Monday. Indeed, Chinese and Hong Kong shares were in positive territory on Monday after a subdued start. The blue-chip index (CSI300) gained 0.5 percent while the Hang Seng index (HSI) was a touch firmer . Investors are now looking ahead to an important meeting between Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in the White House where they will discuss potential U.S. tariffs on European goods.
  • The dollar slumped against major peers on Monday, knocked lower by U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments on the greenback’s strength while the yen spiked on reports Japan’s central bank is debating moves to reduce its massive monetary stimulus. The dollar extended losses after CNBC reported on Friday that Trump was worried the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates twice more this year. Trump said the Fed’s policy tightening and the strong dollar could hurt the U.S. economy. The yen rose after Reuters and other media reported that the Bank of Japan is actively discussing changes to its policies. The BOJ is scheduled to hold its next monetary policy meeting on July 30 and 31. At a weekend meeting in Buenos Aires, finance ministers and central bank governors from the world’s 20 largest economies called for stepped-up dialogue to prevent trade and geopolitical tensions from hurting growth. The meeting came amid an escalating trade dispute between the United States and China, which have so far slapped tariffs on $34 billion worth of each other’s goods. Trump raised the stakes on Friday with a threat to impose tariffs on all $500 billion of Chinese exports to the United States unless Beijing agrees to major structural changes to its technology transfer, industrial subsidy and joint venture policies.
  • The dollar slipped on Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump criticised the Federal Reserve and global monetary policy over the weekend. On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump accused the European Union and China of manipulating their currencies.   "China, the European Union and others have been manipulating their currencies and interest rates lower," Trump said in a tweet over the weekend. That, coupled with U.S. interest rate hikes, was weakening U.S.’s economy as the dollar strengthened, Trump claimed.  In a separate tweet, Trump added that "[t]ightening now hurts all that we have done." That came after the president told CNBC in an interview that he was "not thrilled" about the central bank hiking interest rates. His comment led to the downfall of dollar, which saw a one-year high on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comment indicated rising interest rates in the future. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin clarified at the G-20 meeting over the weekend that Trump didn’t intend to interfere with the Fed’s decision. “The administration completely supports the Fed's independence. Where the Fed ends up on interest rates is one, completely up to them, and [two], is also dependent upon what happens to the economy.”
  • Oil prices fell on Monday as finance ministers and central bank governors from the G20 warned recent trade and geopolitical tensions could harm global growth. Fears that an escalating trade spat between Washington and Beijing could hit demand, particularly if Chinese growth is affected, also weighed. Trump told CNBC in an interview last week that he was prepared to impose tariffs on all Chinese goods to the U.S.   The U.S. and China exchanged new tariffs on $34 billion worth of goods on each other earlier this month. The Trump administration has also announced a list of proposed duties on $200 billion in Chinese imports, although those tariffs have not yet kicked in.  Looking ahead, the API is set to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies on Tuesday. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly report on oil stockpiles is due on Wednesday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
23rd July 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,236-1,240 1,251 1,260-1,265
Silver-XAG 15.60 16.40-16.60 17.00
Crude Oil 68.10-68.90 69.50 70.10
EURO/USD 1.1660 1.1770 1.1820-1.1900
GBP/USD 1.3145 1.3200-1.3300 1.3360
USD/JPY 111.40-112.00 112.70 113.50-114.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
23rd July 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,220-1,214 1,202 1,194
Silver-XAG 15.30-14.80 14.50 13.90
Crude Oil 67.60 67.00 66.50-66.00
EURO/USD 1.1600 1.1500-1.1450 1.1400
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3040 1.3000 1.2950-1.2890
USD/JPY 110.90-110.60 109.80 109.20

Intra-Day Strategy (23rd July 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1232.18/oz and low of US$1215.56/oz. Gold down by 0.720% at US$1231.64/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1284) and breakage above will call for 1296-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1236-1265 keeping stop loss closing above 1265 and targeting 1220-1213 and 1203-1194. Buy above 1220-1194 with risk below 1194, targeting 1236-1240-1251 and 1260-1265.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,220-1,214
S2     1,202
S3     1,194
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,236-1,240
R2     1,251
R3     1,260-1,265

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

24.672

Buy
20-DMA   1246.44 Sell
50-DMA  

1269.15

Sell
100-DMA   1289.44 Sell
200-DMA   1291.56 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   28.163 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -14.155 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$15.52/oz and low of US$15.22/oz. Silver settled up by 1.439% at US$15.50/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.00-14.90 targeting 16.35-16.60-17.00 and 17.75-18.20; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 16.60-18.20 with stop loss above 18.20; targeting 16.60-16.30-16.00 and 15.60-15.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.30-14.80
S2     14.50
S3     13.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.60
R2     16.40-16.60
R3     17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   29.860 Buy
20-DMA   15.97 Sell
50-DMA   16.19 Sell
100-DMA   16.37 Sell
200-DMA   16.55 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   12.695 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.222 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$68.63/bbl, intraday low of US$67.44/bbl and settled up by 0.250% to close at US$67.90/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 68.10-70.10 with stop loss at 70.00; targeting 67.60-67.00 and 66.50-66.00-65.20. Buy above 67.60-66.00 with risk daily closing below 66.00 and targeting 68.00-68.90 and 69.50-70.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     67.60
S2     67.00
S3     66.50-66.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     68.10-68.90
R2     69.50
R3     70.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.901 Sell
20-DMA   69.05 Buy
50-DMA   68.62 Buy
100-DMA   66.98 Buy
200-DMA   63.38 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   43.754 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.300 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1625/EUR, high of US$1.1679/EUR and settled the day up by 0.696% to close at US$1.1720/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1600-1.1400 with risk below 1.1400, targeting 1.1660-1.1720-1.1800 and 1.1900-1.1950. Sell below 1.1660-1.1950 targeting 1.1660-1.1600 and 1.1490-1.1450 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1950.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1600
S2     1.1500-1.1450
S3     1.1400

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1660
R2     1.1770
R3     1.1820-1.1900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.640 Buy
20-DMA   1.1673 Sell
50-DMA   1.1746 Sell
100-DMA   1.1857 Sell
200-DMA   1.1860 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   25.034 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0013 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2994/GBP, high of US$1.3139/GBP and settled the day up by 0.906% to close at US$1.3129/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3145-1.3390 with targets at 1.3100-1.3040-1.3000 and 1.2950- 1.2890. Buy above 1.3000-1.2800 with targets 1.3145-1.3200 and 1.3310-1.3360 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3100-1.3040
S2     1.3000
S3     1.2950-1.2890

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3145
R2     1.3200-1.3300
R3     1.3360

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

34.338

Buy
20-DMA   1.3195 Buy
50-DMA   1.3325 Buy
100-DMA   1.3465 Buy
200-DMA   1.3475 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   45.361 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0036 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY111.37/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.61/USD and settled the day down by 0.880% at JPY111.45/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.40-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 110.90-110.60 and 109.80-109.00. Long positions above 110.90-109.820 with targets of 111.40-112.00 and 113.50-114.00-114.90 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.90-110.60
S2     109.80
S3     109.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.40-112.00
R2     112.70
R3     113.50-114.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.904 Buy
20-DMA   111.42 110.56 Buy
50-DMA   110.56 Buy
100-DMA   109.58 Sell
200-DMA   109.96 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   13.760 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.492 Sell

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