AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares inched up n Thursday as the United States and Europe agreed to negotiations to ease barriers on trade, but weakness in China markets underscored persistent worries about the outlook for global growth. European markets looked set to open higher after U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker had agreed to work to lower industrial tariffs on both sides. Juncker also called Trump's agreement to hold off on car tariffs as the two sides launch negotiations to cut other trade barriers a "major concession." At the same time, Trump said Europe has agreed to increase purchases of U.S. liquefied natural gas and lower trade barriers to American soybeans. But a warning of slowing growth from Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB), which saw the company's stock fall as much as 24 percent in after-hours trading on Wednesday, highlighted risks for investors and businesses in the current earnings season. Furthermore, nearly three-quarters of economists polled by Reuters said trade protectionism would have a significant downward impact on global growth next year. After months of see-sawing prompted by uncertainty over trade, some markets were enjoying a relief rally, said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at Faraday Research in Singapore. He added that ahead of U.S. second-quarter GDP data on Friday and a likely shift in the Bank of Japan's stimulus policy next week, investors were "in a bit of a holding pattern. The BOJ is said to be considering changing the composition of exchange-traded funds it buys as part of its stimulus program. It holds a two-day policy review on July 30-31.
  • The U.S. dollar slipped to near a two-week low on Tuesday after the U.S. and the European Union agreed steps to avoid trade war, easing immediate global trade tensions. U.S. President Donald Trump reached an agreement with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker on Wednesday to expand European imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas and soybeans and reduce industrial tariffs on both sides. Following talks on Wednesday with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, U.S. President Donald Trump said they agreed to "work together toward zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers, and zero subsidies on non-auto industrial goods." Early on Wednesday, before the Trump-Juncker talks, the single currency slipped to a low of $1.1664 on media reports that Trump was considering imposing a 25 percent tariff on foreign-made cars. But it bounced back on comments of the two leaders that showed desire to find solutions to trade conflicts between the U.S. and European Union. The dollar's retreat was limited, however, as long-term Treasury yields climbed after the U.S.-E.U. trade news improved investor risk appetites and lessened demand for government bonds. The immediate currency market focus was on the European Central Bank's policy decision due later on Thursday. With the ECB widely expected to keep policy on hold, investors will study comments by President Mario Draghi for any references to the pace of policy normalization.
  • Brent crude led oil prices higher on Thursday, extending gains into a third day after Saudi Arabia suspended crude shipments through a strategic Red Sea shipping lane and as data showed U.S. inventories fell to a 3-1/2 year low. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, said on Thursday that it was "temporarily halting" all oil shipments through the strategic Red Sea shipping lane of Bab al-Mandeb after an attack on two big oil tankers by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi movement. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said in a statement that the Houthis had attacked two Saudi Very Large Crude Carriers in the Red Sea on Wednesday morning, one of which sustained minimal damage. "Saudi Arabia is temporarily halting all oil shipments through Bab al-Mandeb Strait immediately until the situation becomes clearer and the maritime transit through Bab al-Mandeb is safe," the minister said. Most exports from the Gulf that transit the Suez Canal and the SUMED Pipeline also pass through Bab al-Mandeb strait. An estimated 4.8 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined petroleum products flowed through this waterway in 2016 toward Europe, the United States and Asia, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The Bab al-Mandeb strait, where the Red Sea meets the Gulf of Aden in the Arabian Sea, is only 20 km (12 miles) wide, making hundreds of ships potentially easy targets. Prices were also supported by official data showing U.S. crude oil inventories last week tumbled more than expected to their lowest level since 2015 as exports jumped and stocks at the Cushing hub dropped Crude inventories fell 6.1 million barrels in the week to July 20, compared with analyst expectations for a decrease of 2.3 million barrels, the EIA said on Wednesday. At 404.9 million barrels, inventories, not including the nation's emergency petroleum reserve, were at their lowest level since February 2015. The threat of a transatlantic trade war eased after U.S. President Donald Trump agreed on Wednesday to refrain from imposing car tariffs on the European Union while the parties discuss cutting other trade barriers.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
26th July 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,236-1,240 1,251 1,260-1,265
Silver-XAG 15.60 16.40-16.60 17.00
Crude Oil 68.90-69.50 70.20 71.00
EURO/USD 1.1770 1.1820-1.1900 1.1960
GBP/USD 1.3200-1.3300 1.3360 1.3400
USD/JPY 110.90-111.40 112.70-113.50 112.70-113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
26th July 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,220-1,214 1,202 1,194
Silver-XAG 15.30-14.80 14.50 13.90
Crude Oil 68.10-67.60 67.00 66.50-66.00
EURO/USD 1.1660-1.1600 1.1500 1.1450-1.1400
GBP/USD 1.3145-1.3090 1.3040 1.3000-1.2950
USD/JPY 110.60-109.80 108.70 108.70

Intra-Day Strategy (26th July 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1234.08/oz and low of US$1223.16/oz. Gold up by 0.577% at US$1231.38/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1284) and breakage above will call for 1296-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1236-1265 keeping stop loss closing above 1265 and targeting 1220-1213 and 1203-1194. Buy above 1220-1194 with risk below 1194, targeting 1236-1240-1251 and 1260-1265.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,220-1,214
S2     1,202
S3     1,194
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,236-1,240
R2     1,251
R3     1,260-1,265

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

36.701

Buy
20-DMA   1240.89 Sell
50-DMA  

1263.33

Sell
100-DMA   1282.09 Sell
200-DMA   1289.14 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   70.452 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -12.318 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$15.61/oz and low of US$15.43/oz. Silver settled down by 1.062% at US$15.59/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.30-13.90 targeting 15.60-16.35-17.00 and 17.75-18.20; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 15.60-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.30-14.80 and 14.50-13.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.30-14.80
S2     14.50
S3     13.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.60
R2     16.40-16.60
R3     17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.354 Buy
20-DMA   15.75 Sell
50-DMA   16.04 Sell
100-DMA   16.30 Sell
200-DMA   16.51 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   58.317 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.2315 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$69.26/bbl, intraday low of US$67.84/bbl and settled up by 0.819% to close at US$68.90/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 68.90-71.00 with stop loss at 71.00; targeting 68.10-67.60-67.00 and 66.50-66.00. Buy above 68.10-66.00 with risk daily closing below 66.00 and targeting 68.90-69.50 and 70.20-71.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     68.10-67.60
S2     67.00
S3     66.50-66.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     68.90-69.50
R2     70.20
R3     71.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.167 Sell
20-DMA   68.63 Buy
50-DMA   68.63 Buy
100-DMA   67.08 Buy
200-DMA   63.54 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   85.505 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.240 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1663/EUR, high of US$1.1737/EUR and settled the day up by 0.385% to close at US$1.1727/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1660-1.1400 with risk below 1.1400, targeting 1.1750-1.1820 and 1.1900-1.1960. Sell below 1.1750-1.1960 targeting 1.1660-1.1600 and 1.1490-1.1450 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1960.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1660-1.1600
S2     1.1500
S3     1.1450-1.1400

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1770
R2     1.1820-1.1900
R3     1.1960

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.6355 Buy
20-DMA   1.1689 Sell
50-DMA   1.1740 Sell
100-DMA   1.1843 Sell
200-DMA   1.1853 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   77.230 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3131/GBP, high of US$1.3199/GBP and settled the day up by 0.327% to close at US$1.3184/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3200-1.3390 with targets at 1.3145-1.3090-1.3040 and 1.3000- 1.2950. Buy above 1.3145-1.2950 with targets 1.3200-1.3310 and 1.3360-1.3400 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3145-1.3090
S2     1.3040
S3     1.3000-1.2950

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3200-1.3300
R2     1.3360
R3     1.3400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.447

Buy
20-DMA   1.3177 Buy
50-DMA   1.3293 Buy
100-DMA   1.3434 Buy
200-DMA   1.3459 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   93.025 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0037 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY110.65/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.37/USD and settled the day down by 0.206% at JPY110.96/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.90-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 110.60-109.80 and 109.00. Long positions above 110.90-109.820 with targets of 111.40-112.00 and 113.50-114.00-114.90 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.60-109.80
S2     108.70
S3     108.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.90-111.40
R2     112.70-113.50
R3     112.70-113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.923 Buy
20-DMA   111.31 Buy
50-DMA   110.61 Buy
100-DMA   110.02 Sell
200-DMA   110.00 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   12.047 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.253 Sell

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