AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks struggled to gain traction on Friday, following a mixed Wall Street finish and as the worsening Sino-U.S. trade dispute kept investors in the region cautious, despite signs of rapprochement between the United States and Europe. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe, ACWI, hit four-month highs on Thursday, with European car maker shares gaining 2.6 percent after the European Union and the United States agreed to negotiate on trade, easing fears of a Transatlantic trade war. Yet Asian shares were more subdued as trade disputes between Washington and Beijing have shown few signs of abating. The euro traded at $1.1641, having fallen 0.73 percent on Thursday after the European Central Bank signaled no change in its timetable to move away from ultra low rates or end its bond purchase program.
  • The dollar was firm against its peers on Friday, having regained traction as the euro slid sharply after the European Central Bank kept to its planned timetable to move away from its accommodative monetary policy. The single currency had sunk more than 0.7 percent the previous day after the ECB said it would stay on course to end its 2.6 trillion euro stimulus program this year and keep rates at a record low level through the summer of 2019. While the euro's downturn provided the dollar with a significant lift, the U.S. currency was seen to be enjoying support from other quarters as well. The dollar was slightly lower against the yen for the week, during which it pulled away from a six-month high above 113 yen scaled on July 19. The dollar's retreat came after U.S. President Donald Trump expressed displeasure over the currency's strength and amid speculation that the Bank of Japan could scaled back its massive monetary stimulus soon.
  • Gold prices turned lower on Friday despite a weaker dollar as markets await the U.S. GDP data due later in the day. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies, also slipped 0.06% to 94.51 ahead of the second-quarter GDP report due later in the day. Economists expect to see the annualized growth rate ticked up to 4.2% in the second quarter, the highest in almost four years. U.S. President Donald Trump expressed earlier this week his displeasure over the currency’s strength.   The yen gained 0.13% against the dollar on Friday amid speculation that the Bank of Japan could scale back its monetary stimulus program soon.  Trade Tensions remained in focus as representatives from the U.S. and China had an unpleasant conversation at the World Trade Organization meeting on Thursday.  During the meeting, Washington asked for reforms targeting China’s responsiveness to the market, while Beijing said it would not respond to the U.S.’s tactics.
  • Oil prices edged down on Friday after three days of gains, but were still supported by Saudi Arabia's halt on transporting crude through a key shipping lane, falling U.S. inventories and easing trade tensions between Washington and Europe. U.S. President Donald Trump and Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, the EU's executive body, struck a surprise deal on Wednesday that ended the risk of an immediate trade war between the two powers. A trade war would likely hit demand for commodities like oil, which is used heavily in shipping, construction and other economic activity. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia said it was "temporarily halting" oil shipments through the Red Sea shipping lane of Bab al-Mandeb after an attack by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi movement. Any move to block the Bab al-Mandeb, which is between the coasts of Yemen and Africa at the southern end of the Red Sea, would virtually halt oil shipments through Egypt's Suez Canal and the SUMED crude pipeline that link the Red Sea and Mediterranean. An estimated 4.8 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products flowed through the Bab al-Mandeb strait in 2016 toward Europe, the United States and Asia, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. However, Saudi Arabia has the Petroline, also known as the East-West Pipeline, which mainly transports crude from fields clustered in the east to Yanbu for export. That could offset a bottleneck caused by Bab al-Mandeb's closure.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
27th July 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,248 1,248 1,255-1,260
Silver-XAG 15.60 16.40-16.60 17.00
Crude Oil 69.50-70.20 71.00 71.60
EURO/USD 1.1660-1.1700 1.1770 1.1820-1.1900
GBP/USD 1.3145 1.3200-1.3300 1.3360
USD/JPY 110.90-111.40 112.00 112.70-113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
27th July 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,220-1,214 1,202 1,194
Silver-XAG 15.30-14.80 14.50 13.90
Crude Oil 68.60-67.60 67.00 66.50-66.00
EURO/USD 1.1600 1.1500 1.1450-1.1400
GBP/USD 1.3090 1.3040 1.3000-1.2950
USD/JPY 110.60-109.80 109.20 108.70

Intra-Day Strategy (27th July 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1235.09/oz and low of US$1222.28/oz. Gold down by 0.734% at US$1222.48/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1284) and breakage above will call for 1296-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1236-1265 keeping stop loss closing above 1265 and targeting 1220-1213 and 1203-1194. Buy above 1220-1194 with risk below 1194, targeting 1236-1240-1251 and 1260-1265.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,220-1,214
S2     1,202
S3     1,194
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,248
R2     1,248
R3     1,255-1,260

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

34.342

Buy
20-DMA   1238.63 Sell
50-DMA  

1261.50

Sell
100-DMA   1280.79 Sell
200-DMA   1288.41 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   54.414 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -12.643 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$15.65/oz and low of US$15.36/oz. Silver settled down by 1.348% at US$15.36/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.30-13.90 targeting 15.60-16.35-17.00 and 17.75-18.20; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 15.60-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.30-14.80 and 14.50-13.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.30-14.80
S2     14.50
S3     13.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.60
R2     16.40-16.60
R3     17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.354 Buy
20-DMA   15.75 Sell
50-DMA   16.04 Sell
100-DMA   16.30 Sell
200-DMA   16.51 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   58.317 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.2315 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$68.52/bbl, intraday low of US$68.52/bbl and settled up by 0.203% to close at US$69.10/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 68.90-71.00 with stop loss at 71.00; targeting 68.10-67.60-67.00 and 66.50-66.00. Buy above 68.10-66.00 with risk daily closing below 66.00 and targeting 68.90-69.50 and 70.20-71.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     68.60-67.60
S2     67.00
S3     66.50-66.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     69.50-70.20
R2     71.00
R3     71.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.167 Sell
20-DMA   68.63 Buy
50-DMA   68.63 Buy
100-DMA   67.08 Buy
200-DMA   63.54 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   85.505 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.240 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1639/EUR, high of US$1.1742/EUR and settled the day down by 0.733% to close at US$1.1641/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1600-1.1400 with risk below 1.1400, targeting 1.1660-1.1750-1.1820 and 1.1900-1.1960. Sell below 1.1660-1.1900 targeting 1.1600-1.1500 and 1.1450-1.1400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1960.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1600
S2     1.1500
S3     1.1450-1.1400

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1660-1.1700
R2     1.1770
R3     1.1820-1.1900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.196 Buy
20-DMA   1.1676 Sell
50-DMA   1.1733 Sell
100-DMA   1.1838 Sell
200-DMA   1.1850 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   41.122 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.007 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3104/GBP, high of US$1.3124/GBP and settled the day down by 0.606% to close at US$1.3104/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3145-1.3360 with targets at 1.3090-1.3040 and 1.3000- 1.2950. Buy above 1.3090-1.2950 with targets 1.3145-1.3200-1.3310 and 1.3360-1.3400 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3090
S2     1.3040
S3     1.3000-1.2950

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3145
R2     1.3200-1.3300
R3     1.3360

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.447

Buy
20-DMA   1.3177 Buy
50-DMA   1.3293 Buy
100-DMA   1.3434 Buy
200-DMA   1.3459 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   93.025 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0037 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY110.58/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.24/USD and settled the day up by 0.225% at JPY111.21/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.90-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 110.60-109.80 and 109.00. Long positions above 110.90-109.820 with targets of 111.40-112.00 and 113.50-114.00-114.90 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.60-109.80
S2     109.20
S3     108.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.90-111.40
R2     112.00
R3     112.70-113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.923 Buy
20-DMA   111.31 Buy
50-DMA   110.61 Buy
100-DMA   110.02 Sell
200-DMA   110.00 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   12.047 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.253 Sell

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