AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian share markets drifted lower on Monday while currencies kept to familiar ranges at the start of a busy week peppered with central bank meetings, corporate results and updates on U.S. inflation and payrolls. The U.S. Federal Reserve meets on Tuesday and Wednesday and is widely expected to stand pat while reaffirming the outlook for further gradual rate rises. The market is almost fully priced for a hike in September and leaning towards a further move before year-end. A Bank of Japan policy meeting that ends on Tuesday has taken on greater importance amid talk it could tweak its massive asset-buying campaign. Elias Haddad, a senior currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, doubted the BoJ would move just yet, but felt it may abandon the negative interest rate applied to accounts held by financial institutions at the central bank The BOJ could also modify its annual objective of accumulating 80 trillion yen ($720 billion) of Japanese government bonds, as well as potentially lifting its target yield for 10-year JGBs. Those yields recorded the highest close since January 2016 last week. The euro has had problems of its own as the European Central Bank emphasized that rates would not be rising until the second half of next year.
  • The dollar was little changed on Monday ahead of several key central bank meetings coming up this week. The Bank of Japan ends a two-day meeting on Tuesday, while the U.S. Federal Reserve concludes its policy meeting on Wednesday and is widely expected to reaffirm the outlook for further gradual rate rises, as the market is almost fully priced for a rate hike in September and expects a further move before the end of this year. The Bank of England also makes a policy decision on Thursday. U.S. second-quarter GDP grew at 4.1%, marking the quickest pace of growth since 2014, although its impact on the dollar seemed to be limited.  In Asia, BOJ policy meeting on Tuesday is expected to receive some focus as traders believe the central bank could tweak its massive asset-buying campaign.  The USD/JPY pair gained 0.02% to 111.05 ahead of the meeting. Analysts also believed the BOJ could also modify its annual objective of accumulating 80 trillion yen ($720 billion) of Japanese government bonds, as well as potentially lifting its target yield for 10-year JGBs. Sterling posted its third straight weekly loss last week, hit by concerns about the progress of Brexit talks. It will be looking for some relief on Thursday, when the BoE is widely expected to raise interest rates for only the second time since the 2008 financial crisis.
  • Gold prices edged lower while the dollar was little changed on Monday as market participants awaited key central bank meetings due later this week. The dollar remained unchanged on Monday ahead of several key central bank meetings coming up this week.  The U.S. Federal Reserve concludes its policy meeting on Wednesday and is widely expected to reaffirm the outlook for further gradual rate rises, as the market is almost fully priced for a rate hike in September and expects a further move before the end of this year. U.S. second-quarter GDP grew at 4.1%, marking the quickest pace of growth since 2014, although its impact on the dollar and gold prices seemed to be limited. Analysts questioned the sustainability of growth, however, as the benefits from fiscal stimulus on economic growth are expected to wane next year.
  • Oil Prices were mixed on Monday as investors digested a strong U.S. GDP report and the continued trade concerns between the U.S. and China. U.S. second-quarter GDP grew at 4.1%, marking the quickest pace of growth since 2014, but trade tensions between the U.S. and China remain high despite an easing between the United States and the EU."Concerns around the U.S.-China trade wars continue to weigh on prices, while the halt in Saudi shipments through the Red Sea waterway has seemingly failed to provide a bullish fillip," said Stephen Innes, head of trading APAC at OANDA Brokerage. Last week, Saudi Arabia said it was temporarily halting all oil shipments through the Red Sea shipping lane of Bab al-Mandeb after an attack on two big oil tankers by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi movement also pushed oil prices higher.   Following the attack, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said in a statement that one of the crude carriers sustained minimal damage.  Meanwhile, U.S. energy companies added three oil rigs in the week to July 27, the first time in the past three weeks that drillers have increased activity, data on Friday showed.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
30th July 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,236-1,240 1,248 1,255-1,260
Silver-XAG 15.60 16.40-16.60 17.00
Crude Oil 69.00-69.50 70.20 71.00-71.60
EURO/USD 1.1700 1.1770 1.1820-1.1900
GBP/USD 1.3145 1.3200-1.3300 1.3360
USD/JPY 110.90-111.40 112.00 112.70-113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
30th July 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,220-1,214 1,202 1,194
Silver-XAG 15.30-14.80 14.50 13.90
Crude Oil 68.20-67.60 67.00 66.50-66.00
EURO/USD 1.1660-1.1600 1.1500 1.1450-1.1400
GBP/USD 1.3090 1.3040 1.3000-1.2950
USD/JPY 110.60-109.80 109.20 108.70

Intra-Day Strategy (30th July 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1227.27/oz and low of US$1217.48/oz. Gold up by 0.0278% at US$1222.91/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1284) and breakage above will call for 1296-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1236-1265 keeping stop loss closing above 1265 and targeting 1220-1213 and 1203-1194. Buy above 1220-1194 with risk below 1194, targeting 1236-1240-1251 and 1260-1265.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,220-1,214
S2     1,202
S3     1,194
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,236-1,240
R2     1,248
R3     1,255-1,260

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

34.342

Buy
20-DMA   1238.63 Sell
50-DMA  

1261.50

Sell
100-DMA   1280.79 Sell
200-DMA   1288.41 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   54.414 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -12.643 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$15.52/oz and low of US$15.31/oz. Silver settled up by 0.912% at US$15.49/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.30-13.90 targeting 15.60-16.35-17.00 and 17.75-18.20; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 15.60-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.30-14.80 and 14.50-13.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.30-14.80
S2     14.50
S3     13.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.60
R2     16.40-16.60
R3     17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.354 Buy
20-DMA   15.75 Sell
50-DMA   16.04 Sell
100-DMA   16.30 Sell
200-DMA   16.51 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   58.317 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.2315 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$68.60/bbl, intraday low of US$68.36/bbl and settled down by 0.753% to close at US$68.46/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 68.90-71.00 with stop loss at 71.00; targeting 68.10-67.60-67.00 and 66.50-66.00. Buy above 68.10-66.00 with risk daily closing below 66.00 and targeting 68.90-69.50 and 70.20-71.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     68.20-67.60
S2     67.00
S3     66.50-66.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     69.00-69.50
R2     70.20
R3     71.00-71.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.167 Sell
20-DMA   68.63 Buy
50-DMA   68.63 Buy
100-DMA   67.08 Buy
200-DMA   63.54 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   85.505 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.240 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1619/EUR, high of US$1.1663/EUR and settled the day down by 0.128% to close at US$1.1656/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1600-1.1400 with risk below 1.1400, targeting 1.1660-1.1750-1.1820 and 1.1900-1.1960. Sell below 1.1660-1.1900 targeting 1.1600-1.1500 and 1.1450-1.1400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1960.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1660-1.1600
S2     1.1500
S3     1.1450-1.1400

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1700
R2     1.1770
R3     1.1820-1.1900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.196 Buy
20-DMA   1.1676 Sell
50-DMA   1.1733 Sell
100-DMA   1.1838 Sell
200-DMA   1.1850 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   41.122 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.007 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3081/GBP, high of US$1.3130/GBP and settled the day down by 0.007% to close at US$1.3105/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.3145-1.3360 with targets at 1.3090-1.3040 and 1.3000- 1.2950. Buy above 1.3090-1.2950 with targets 1.3145-1.3200-1.3310 and 1.3360-1.3400 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3090
S2     1.3040
S3     1.3000-1.2950

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3145
R2     1.3200-1.3300
R3     1.3360

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.447

Buy
20-DMA   1.3177 Buy
50-DMA   1.3293 Buy
100-DMA   1.3434 Buy
200-DMA   1.3459 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   93.025 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0037 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY110.79/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.23/USD and settled the day down by 0.170% at JPY111.01/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.90-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 110.60-109.80 and 109.00. Long positions above 110.90-109.820 with targets of 111.40-112.00 and 113.50-114.00-114.90 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.60-109.80
S2     109.20
S3     108.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.90-111.40
R2     112.00
R3     112.70-113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.923 Buy
20-DMA   111.31 Buy
50-DMA   110.61 Buy
100-DMA   110.02 Sell
200-DMA   110.00 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   12.047 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.253 Sell

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