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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares extended their recovery into a fourth day on Wednesday, buoyed by strong U.S. earnings and expectations that Beijing will ramp up fiscal stimulus to cushion the impact of its worsening trade dispute with Washington. Bucking the trend were Chinese shares, which slipped about 0.4 percent after the United States said it would begin collecting 25 percent tariffs on an additional $16 billion worth of Chinese goods this month, the second leg of its first China-targetted tariffs on $50 billion goods. News that the fresh duties will go into effect from Aug. 23 overshadowed strong Chinese trade data, which showed exports rose more than expected in July despite U.S. tariffs imposed early last month. Imports also rose more than forecast, suggesting its domestic demand remains resilient despite trade war fears. But losses in China markets were tempered by signs Beijing is unveiling further measures to support growth, such as increasing infrastructure spending and tweaking its monetary policy stance. The Chinese yuan was little changed, keeping some distance from its 15-month lows hit last week as the central bank on Friday took steps to curb bets against the currency by raising the cost for investors to short the yuan. But pressure on the Chinese currency remained strong.
  • The U.S. dollar edged lower against a basket of currencies on Wednesday as its recent rally on global trade tensions showed signs of fading, while the offshore yuan steadied near a one-week high. In a reminder of the growing trade disputes, the U.S. Trade Representative's office said late on Tuesday that the United States would begin collecting 25 percent tariffs on another $16 bn of goods it imports from China later this month. The move is the latest by Washington to pressure China into negotiating trade concessions after it imposed tariffs on $34 bn of goods in July. China has vowed to retaliate to an equal degree. Since mid-April, the dollar index has risen more than 6%, supported by rising interest rates and fears over the impact of trade conflicts. But it showed a muted response to China's July trade data, the first figures since the United States imposed tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports on July 6. The report showed China's exports and imports rising faster than expected, although the country's trade surplus with the United States was little changed. The United States and Japan are scheduled to hold their first bilateral trade talks in Washington on Thursday after Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed in April to a new framework to discuss "free, fair and reciprocal" trade.
  • Oil prices held steady on Wednesday, supported by a report of rising U.S. crude inventories as well as the introduction of sanctions against Iran. The U.S. government introduced a raft of new sanctions against Iran on Tuesday, targeting Iran's purchases of U.S. dollars - in which oil is traded - metals trading, coal, industrial software and its auto sector. From November, Washington will also target Iran's petroleum sector. Iran is the third-largest producer among the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). It shipped out almost 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in September, equivalent to around 3 percent of global demand. Beyond the sanctions, the oil market was focusing on the U.S. market, where the American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday that crude inventories fell by 6 million barrels in the week to Aug. 3 to 407.2 million. Official U.S. fuel storage data is due to be released later on Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). In terms of production, the EIA on Tuesday slightly cut its 2018 expectation for average 2018 U.S. crude output to 10.69 million bpd, down from its previous estimate of 10.79 million bpd. On the demand side, China's July crude oil imports recovered slightly in July after falling for the previous two months, but were still among the lowest this year due to a drop-off in demand from the country's smaller independent, or "teapot", refineries. Shipments into the world's biggest importer of crude came in at 36.02 million tonnes last month, or 8.48 million bpd, up from 8.18 million bpd a year ago, and just up on June's 8.36 million bpd, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. However, July imports were still the third-lowest so far this year.residential cooling.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
8th August 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,220 1,228 1,236-1,240
Silver-XAG 15.50 16.40-16.60 17.00
Crude Oil 69.00 69.50 70.20-71.00
EURO/USD 1.1660-1.1720 1.1770 1.1820-1.1900
GBP/USD 1.2990 1.3040 1.3090-1.3145
USD/JPY 112.10 112.70-113.50 114.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
8th August 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,211-1,204 1,194 1,189-1,180
Silver-XAG 15.10-14.80 14.50 13.90
Crude Oil 68.20 67.60 67.00-66.50
EURO/USD 1.1570 1.1510 1.1450-1.1400
GBP/USD 1.2950 1.2900-1.2840 1.2770
USD/JPY 111.40 111.00 110.60-109.80

Intra-Day Strategy (8th August 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1216.07/oz and low of US$1207.07/oz. Gold up by 0.297% at US$1210.86/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1284) and breakage above will call for 1296-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1220-1240 keeping stop loss closing above 1240 and targeting 1211-1204-1194 and 1189-1180. Buy above 1211-1180 with risk below 1180, targeting 1220-1228 and 1236-1240-1251.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,211-1,204
S2     1,194
S3     1,189-1,180
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,220
R2     1,228
R3     1,236-1,240

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

37.203

Buy
20-DMA   1224.76 Sell
50-DMA  

1248.46

Sell
100-DMA   1270.92 Sell
200-DMA   1282.70 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   31.229 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -12.162 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$15.47/oz and low of US$15.26/oz. Silver settled up by 0.655% at US$15.36/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.10-13.90 targeting 15.60-16.35-17.00 and 17.75-18.20; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 15.60-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.30-14.80 and 14.50-13.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.10-14.80
S2     14.50
S3     13.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.50
R2     16.40-16.60
R3     17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.825 Buy
20-DMA   15.52 Sell
50-DMA   15.85 Sell
100-DMA   16.13 Sell
200-DMA   16.40 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   36.804 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.178 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$69.13/bbl, intraday low of US$67.75/bbl and settled up by 0.427% to close at US$68.18/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 69.00-71.00 with stop loss at 71.00; targeting 68.20-67.60-67.00 and 66.50-66.00. Buy above 68.20-66.50 with risk daily closing below 66.50 and targeting 69.00-69.50 and 70.20-71.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     68.20
S2     67.60
S3     67.00-66.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     69.00
R2     69.50
R3     70.20-71.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.915 Sell
20-DMA   68.56 Buy
50-DMA   68.53 Buy
100-DMA   67.26 Buy
200-DMA   63.90 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   58.109 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.285 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1549/EUR, high of US$1.1570/EUR and settled the day down by 0.634% to close at US$1.1597/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1570-1.1400 with risk below 1.1400, targeting 1.1660-1.1750-1.1820 and 1.1900-1.1960. Sell below 1.1660-1.1900 targeting 1.1600-1.1500 and 1.1450-1.1400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1960.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1570
S2     1.1510
S3     1.1450-1.1400

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1660-1.1720
R2     1.1770
R3     1.1820-1.1900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.620 Buy
20-DMA   1.1662 Sell
50-DMA   1.1717 Sell
100-DMA   1.1819 Sell
200-DMA   1.1840 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   10.530 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0017 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2922/GBP, high of US$1.2973/GBP and settled the day down by 0.015% to close at US$1.2938/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2990-1.3145 with targets at 1.2950-1.2900 and 1.2840-1.2770. Buy above 1.2950-1.2770 with targets 1.2990-1.3040-1.3090 and 1.3145-1.3200 with stop loss closing below 1.2700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2950
S2     1.2900-1.2840
S3     1.2770

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2990
R2     1.3040
R3     1.3090-1.3145

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

36.305

Buy
20-DMA   1.3096 Buy
50-DMA   1.3224 Buy
100-DMA   1.3376 Buy
200-DMA   1.3427 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   15.032 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0063 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY110.98/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.47/USD and settled the day down by 0.0179% at JPY111.37/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.00-114.20 with risk above 114.20 targeting 111.40-111.00-110.60 and 109.80-109.00. Long positions above 111.40-109.820 with targets of 111.40-112.00 and 113.50-114.00-114.90 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.40
S2     111.00
S3     110.60-109.80

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.10
R2     112.70-113.50
R3     114.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.661 Buy
20-DMA   111.42 Buy
50-DMA   110.76 Buy
100-DMA   110.14 Buy
200-DMA   110.06 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   83.377 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.239 Sell

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