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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian share markets found support on Thursday as a rally in Chinese stocks helped offset the latest escalation in the Sino-U.S. trade war, while Russia's rouble tumbled as the United States slapped fresh sanctions on the country. Shanghai blue chips climbed 2.7 percent amid talk of possible government support for home-grown technology companies, just the latest in a series of growth boosting measures rolled out by Beijing as the trade dispute worsens. Hopes for more Chinese infrastructure spending also underpinned industrial resources including iron ore and copper. Japan will try to avert steep tariffs on its car exports and fend off U.S. demands for a free trade agreement at talks in Washington later in the session. Early on Thursday, China's state broadcaster said the country must counteract U.S. tariffs and that Beijing had the confidence to protect its own interests as well as the means to do so. China had already announced additional tariffs of 25 percent on $16 billion worth of U.S. imports from fuel to autos. The tariffs will apply to billions of dollars in U.S. gasoline, diesel and other oil products, though not crude. In currency markets, the Russian rouble sank after Washington said it would impose fresh sanctions because it had determined that Moscow had used a nerve agent against a former Russian agent and his daughter in Britain. There were also reports of a new U.S. Senate bill that would impose widespread sanctions on Russia for election meddling. The pound skidded to its lowest against the dollar and euro in almost a year as fears grew Britain might leave the EU without a deal on trade with Brussels. Traders reported a significant increase in investors hedging against a 'no-deal' Brexit, an event which could send sterling into free fall and hurt the economy by raising trade barriers with Britain's biggest export market.
  • The yen edged up to its strongest level against the dollar in nine days on Thursday ahead of trade talks between the United States and Japan and speculation over when the Japanese central bank will exit its ultra-easy monetary policy. Elsewhere in the currency market, the New Zealand dollar slid as its central bank staked out a dovish policy. While markets are still on edge over the brewing trade war between the United States and China, traders expected the main event on Thursday to take place in Washington, where Japan will enter talks seeking to avert steep tariffs on its car exports and fend off U.S. demands for a bilateral free trade agreement. The yen has fallen about 4 percent against the dollar over the past six months, raising speculation that its depreciation could be an issue in the talks as the Trump administration has raised concerns over countries deliberately weakening their currencies. The yen had received a lift on Wednesday following the release of minutes from a July 30-31 BOJ board meeting that showed one member wanted to allow long-term yields to move in an even wider band than the range indicated by the central bank. Some saw last week's policy tweak as a message of quiet surrender by the BOJ, an admission that it couldn't stoke inflation and walking back steps intended to do so.
  • Oil prices on Thursday eked out gains on concerns about Iranian crude supplies as the U.S. hit Tehran with renewed sanctions, halting the previous session's declines amid the escalating China-U.S. trade dispute and worries over China's demand. The U.S. reimposed sanctions on some industries on Tuesday against Iran, third-biggest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The renewed sanctions won't directly target Iranian oil until November, although U.S. President Donald Trump has said he wants as many countries as possible to cut their imports of the nation's crude to zero. China is slapping tariffs of 25 percent on a further $16 billion in imports from the United States, hitting trade goods from fuel and steel products to autos and medical equipment. The ongoing trade war is rattling global markets and investors fear any slowdown in the world's two largest economies would slash demand for commodities. China's crude imports recovered slightly in July after two months of decline, but were still among the lowest this year due to a drop-off in demand from smaller independent refineries. China, the world's top importer of crude, took 8.48 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, up from 8.18 million bpd a year earlier and June's 8.36 million bpd, customs data showed. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, meanwhile, reported that crude inventories fell 1.4 million barrels in the latest week, less than half the 3.3 million-barrel draw analysts had expected. Gasoline stocks notched a surprise rise as well of 2.9 million barrels, not the 1.7 million-barrel drop analysts had predicted in a Reuters poll.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
9th August 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,220 1,228 1,236-1,240
Silver-XAG 15.50 16.40-16.60 17.00
Crude Oil 67.00-67.60 68.20 69.00
EURO/USD 1.1660-1.1720 1.1770 1.1820-1.1900
GBP/USD 1.2990 1.3040 1.3090-1.3145
USD/JPY 111.40-112.00 112.50 113.10

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
9th August 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,211-1,204 1,194 1,189-1,180
Silver-XAG 15.10-14.80 14.50 13.90
Crude Oil 66.50-65.80 65.00 63.95
EURO/USD 1.1570 1.1510 1.1450-1.1400
GBP/USD 1.2950 1.2900-1.2840 1.2770
USD/JPY 111.00 110.60-109.80 109.40

Intra-Day Strategy (9th August 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1215.78/oz and low of US$1206.43/oz. Gold up by 0.221% at US$1213.53/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1284) and breakage above will call for 1296-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1220-1240 keeping stop loss closing above 1240 and targeting 1211-1204-1194 and 1189-1180. Buy above 1211-1180 with risk below 1180, targeting 1220-1228 and 1236-1240-1251.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,211-1,204
S2     1,194
S3     1,189-1,180
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,220
R2     1,228
R3     1,236-1,240

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

37.875

Buy
20-DMA   1224.76 Sell
50-DMA  

1248.46

Sell
100-DMA   1270.92 Sell
200-DMA   1282.70 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   49.229 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -12.162 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$15.45/oz and low of US$15.27/oz. Silver settled up by 0.391% at US$15.40/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.10-13.90 targeting 15.60-16.35-17.00 and 17.75-18.20; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 15.60-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.30-14.80 and 14.50-13.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.10-14.80
S2     14.50
S3     13.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.50
R2     16.40-16.60
R3     17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.602 Buy
20-DMA   15.52 Sell
50-DMA   15.85 Sell
100-DMA   16.13 Sell
200-DMA   16.40 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   36.804 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.178 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$68.76/bbl, intraday low of US$65.82/bbl and settled down by 3.25% to close at US$66.22/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 67.00-69.00 with stop loss at 69.00; targeting 66.50-66.00 and 65.00-63.95. Buy above 66.50-63.95 with risk daily closing below 63.95 and targeting 69.00-69.50 and 70.20-71.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     66.50-65.80
S2     65.00
S3     63.95

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     67.00-67.60
R2     68.20
R3     69.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.232 Sell
20-DMA   68.17 Buy
50-DMA   68.36 Buy
100-DMA   67.22 Buy
200-DMA   63.95 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.814 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.519 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1572/EUR, high of US$1.1627/EUR and settled the day up by 0.103% to close at US$1.1609/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1570-1.1400 with risk below 1.1400, targeting 1.1660-1.1750-1.1820 and 1.1900-1.1960. Sell below 1.1660-1.1900 targeting 1.1600-1.1500 and 1.1450-1.1400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1960.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1570
S2     1.1510
S3     1.1450-1.1400

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1660-1.1720
R2     1.1770
R3     1.1820-1.1900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.620 Buy
20-DMA   1.1662 Sell
50-DMA   1.1717 Sell
100-DMA   1.1819 Sell
200-DMA   1.1840 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   10.530 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0017 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2922/GBP, high of US$1.2973/GBP and settled the day down by 0.015% to close at US$1.2938/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2990-1.3145 with targets at 1.2950-1.2900 and 1.2840-1.2770. Buy above 1.2950-1.2770 with targets 1.2990-1.3040-1.3090 and 1.3145-1.3200 with stop loss closing below 1.2700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2950
S2     1.2900-1.2840
S3     1.2770

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2990
R2     1.3040
R3     1.3090-1.3145

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

36.305

Buy
20-DMA   1.3096 Buy
50-DMA   1.3224 Buy
100-DMA   1.3376 Buy
200-DMA   1.3427 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   15.032 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0063 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY110.83/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.43/USD and settled the day down by 0.359% at JPY110.96/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.00-114.20 with risk above 114.20 targeting 111.40-111.00-110.60 and 109.80-109.00. Long positions above 111.40-109.820 with targets of 111.40-112.00 and 113.50-114.00-114.90 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.00
S2     110.60-109.80
S3     109.40

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.40-112.00
R2     112.50
R3     113.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.661 Buy
20-DMA   111.42 Buy
50-DMA   110.76 Buy
100-DMA   110.14 Buy
200-DMA   110.06 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   83.377 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.239 Sell

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