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Daily Market Lookup

  • Worries over the plunging Turkish lira and Russian ruble pulled the euro lower on Friday and rippled through riskier assets worldwide, sending stock markets lower and buoying safe haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries. The euro fell to its lowest level since July 2017 and the dollar rallied as Washington piled pressure on Ankara and Moscow. The lira went into free-fall, sinking more than 10 percent to all-time lows. European stocks looked set to start well in the red, following losses in Asia and U.S. futures. Worries over the escalating Sino-U.S. trade conflict continued to drag on shares in China, with the Shanghai Composite index down 0.4 percent. Turmoil in the lira and ruble and intensifying global trade tensions pushed the dollar to 13-month highs. Turkey's lira plumbed new depths against the dollar, with a meeting between a Turkish delegation and U.S. officials in Washington yielding no apparent solution to a diplomatic rift over the detention in Turkey of a U.S. pastor. Deepening investor concerns about Turkey's authoritarian trajectory under President Tayyip Erdogan and the economic fallout have also weighed on the currency Investors were awaiting the release of the U.S. consumer price inflation (CPI) report for July (1230 GMT) for possible clues on interest rates and any signs of an impact from new tariffs. The data is expected to show inflation likely increased 0.2 percent, after rising 0.1 percent in June.
  • The dollar rose to a 13-month high against a basket of currencies on Friday and the yen also made big strides, with investor appetite for risk dropping amid escalating global trade tensions and diplomatic wrangling. The euro fell to its weakest since July 2017, while the pound dropped to its lowest in a year amid speculation Britain will leave the European Union without an agreement regarding its future relationship with Brussels. The greenback has been boosted by growing global trade tensions and strained geopolitical relationships, with the United States this week saying it would impose fresh sanctions on Moscow. Washington is also embroiled in a diplomatic feud with Turkey. Russia would consider it an economic war if the United States imposed a ban on banks or a particular currency, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Friday, the TASS state news agency said. With the dollar seen to be absorbing safe-haven flows, the yen's gains against the greenback were limited. The Japanese currency, however, rallied against other peers such as the euro, pound and Australian dollar. The single currency had already suffered deep losses overnight, its decline accelerating after the European Central Bank said that risks to global growth are increasing as the risk of protectionism and the threat of higher U.S. tariffs sap confidence The euro was down almost 1 percent for the week, dogged by renewed investor concerns that Italy was heading for a costly and unsustainable spending spree. The U.S. consumer price inflation (CPI) report for July is expected to show inflation likely increased 0.2 percent, after rising 0.1 percent in June. The United States and Japan on Thursday began what the two sides call "free, fair and reciprocal" negotiations on trade, with the discussions due to continue on Friday.
  • Oil prices dipped on Friday on worries that an escalating trade dispute between Washington and Beijing will stall economic growth and demand for fuel, even as renewed U.S. sanctions against Iran are expected to tighten supplies. Prices eased on a possible slowdown in economic growth due to escalating trade tensions. In the latest round of tariffs, China said it would impose additional tariffs of 25 percent on $16 billion worth of U.S. imports. "Already we are hearing that Chinese refiners are holding back on U.S. crude, despite escaping tariffs," ANZ bank said. Growing global trade tensions have also led to a slump in the currencies of major emerging economies such as India, Turkey and China These devaluations have made imports of oil, which is traded in U.S. dollars, more expensive, potentially denting demand. China's automobile sales fell 4.0 percent in July from a year earlier to 1.89 million vehicles, an industry association said on Friday, amid rising concern over the potential fallout of a Sino-U.S. trade spat. While the demand outlook was getting gloomier, supplies may tighten with the re-introduction of U.S. sanctions against Iran, which from November will also include oil exports. Although other powers, including the European Union, China and India oppose sanctions, many are expected to bow to American pressure. Analysts expect the drop-off in Iranian crude exports to range between 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) and 1.3 million bpd, with buyers in Japan, South Korea and India already dialing back orders. The reduction will depend on whether major buyers of Iranian oil in Asia receive sanctions waivers that would still allow some imports. It was also not clear whether China, the biggest buyer of Iranian crude, will bow to Washington's pressure.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
10th August 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,220 1,228 1,236-1,240
Silver-XAG 15.50 16.40-16.60 17.00
Crude Oil 67.00-67.60 68.20 69.00
EURO/USD 1.1510 1.1660 1.1720-1.1770
GBP/USD 1.2840 1.2900-1.2950 1.2990
USD/JPY 111.00 111.40-112.00 112.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
10th August 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,211-1,204 1,194 1,189-1,180
Silver-XAG 15.10-14.80 14.50 13.90
Crude Oil 66.50-65.80 65.00 63.95
EURO/USD 1.1450-1.1400 1.1365 1.1290
GBP/USD 1.2770-1.2700 1.2660 1.2580
USD/JPY 110.60-109.80 109.40 109.00

Intra-Day Strategy (10th August 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1217.22/oz and low of US$1210.70/oz. Gold down by 0.119% at US$1212.19/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1284) and breakage above will call for 1296-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1211-1240 keeping stop loss closing above 1240 and targeting 1204-1194 and 1189-1180. Buy above 1211-1180 with risk below 1180, targeting 1220-1228 and 1236-1240-1251.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,211-1,204
S2     1,194
S3     1,189-1,180
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,220
R2     1,228
R3     1,236-1,240

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

37.875

Buy
20-DMA   1224.76 Sell
50-DMA  

1248.46

Sell
100-DMA   1270.92 Sell
200-DMA   1282.70 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   49.229 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -12.162 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$15.49/oz and low of US$15.35/oz. Silver settled up by 0.260% at US$15.42/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.10-13.90 targeting 15.60-16.35-17.00 and 17.75-18.20; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 15.60-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.30-14.80 and 14.50-13.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.10-14.80
S2     14.50
S3     13.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.50
R2     16.40-16.60
R3     17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.602 Buy
20-DMA   15.52 Sell
50-DMA   15.85 Sell
100-DMA   16.13 Sell
200-DMA   16.40 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   36.804 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.178 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$66.89/bbl, intraday low of US$65.99/bbl and settled down by 0.1811% to close at US$66.11/bbl

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 67.00-69.00 with stop loss at 69.00; targeting 66.50-66.00 and 65.00-63.95. Buy above 66.50-63.95 with risk daily closing below 63.95 and targeting 69.00-69.50 and 70.20-71.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     66.50-65.80
S2     65.00
S3     63.95

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     67.00-67.60
R2     68.20
R3     69.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.232 Sell
20-DMA   68.17 Buy
50-DMA   68.36 Buy
100-DMA   67.22 Buy
200-DMA   63.95 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.814 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.519 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1525/EUR, high of US$1.1618/EUR and settled the day down by 0.715% to close at US$1.1526/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider buy.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1450-1.1290 with risk below 1.1290, targeting 1.1660-1.1510-1.660 and 1.1750-1.1820-1.1900. Sell below 1.1510-1.1770 targeting 1.1450-1.1400 and 1.1365-1.1290 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1770.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1450-1.1400
S2     1.1365
S3     1.1290

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1510
R2     1.1660
R3     1.1720-1.1770

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   33.463 Buy
20-DMA   1.1614 Sell
50-DMA   1.1685 Sell
100-DMA   1.1793 Sell
200-DMA   1.1826 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   25.922 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0040 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2818/GBP, high of US$1.2910/GBP and settled the day down by 0.450% to close at US$1.2821/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2840-1.2990 with targets at 1.2770-1.2700 and 1.2660-1.2580. Buy above 1.2770-1.2580 with targets 1.2840-1.2900-1.2950 and 1.2990-1.3040 with stop loss closing below 1.2700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2770-1.2700
S2     1.2660
S3     1.2580

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2840
R2     1.2900-1.2950
R3     1.2990

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

24.846

Buy
20-DMA   1.3022 Buy
50-DMA   1.3176 Buy
100-DMA   1.3343 Buy
200-DMA   1.3408 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   4.039 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0096 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY110.70/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.18/USD and settled the day up by 0.794% at JPY111.07/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.00-114.20 with risk above 114.20 targeting 111.40-111.00-110.60 and 109.80-109.00. Long positions above 111.40-109.820 with targets of 111.40-112.00 and 113.50-114.00-114.90 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.60-109.80
S2     109.40
S3     109.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.00
R2     111.40-112.00
R3     112.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.661 Buy
20-DMA   111.42 Buy
50-DMA   110.76 Buy
100-DMA   110.14 Buy
200-DMA   110.06 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   83.377 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.239 Sell

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