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Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar hit another fresh 13-month high against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday as safe-haven demand rooted in fears over fallout from the Turkish lira's recent drop boosted the U.S. currency. The greenback's strength - overnight it also hit a 13-month high - has been bolstered by a fall for the euro (EUR=), dogged by concerns over exposure of European banks to Turkey. The lira has lost more than two-fifths of its value against the greenback this year, hit by worries over President Tayyip Erdogan's calls for lower interest rates and fraying ties between the United States and Turkey, a NATO ally Erdogan said on Tuesday that Ankara would boycott electronic products from the United States, retaliating in a row with Washington. The lira was supported by remarks from Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, who told a news conference the currency will strengthen. Asian stocks retreated to a one-year low on Wednesday as bearish Chinese markets worsened investor sentiment already hurt by Turkey’s financial crisis. The strength of the U.S. currency was compounded by the euro’s fall, which has been dogged by potential risks to European banks from Turkey’s financial turmoil.
  • The ongoing USD upsurge helps build on this week’s goodish rebound from 1-1/2 month lows. Risk-off mood fails to revive JPY’s safe-haven demand and hinder the positive momentum. Investors now look forward to the US monthly retail sales data for some meaningful impetus. The USD stood tall near 14-month highs and helped the USD/JPY pair to build on overnight positive momentum beyond the 111.00 handle. The pair extended this week's goodish rebound from the 110.00 neighborhood, or 1-1/2 month lows, and jumped to one-week high during the Asian session on Wednesday. The ongoing US Dollar upsurge, supported by growing concerns about Turkey's financial crisis, was seen as one of the key factors driving the pair higher. Bullish traders seemed to have largely negated a modest retreat in the Asian equities, which tends to underpin the Japanese Yen's safe-haven demand, and weaker US Treasury bond yields, with the USD price dynamics turning out to be an exclusive driver of the pair's momentum over the past 24-hours or so. Moving ahead, today's key focus would be on the US monthly retail sales figures, which along with some second-tier US economic data should produce some meaningful trading opportunities later during the early North-American session. The core US retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% m/m while the control group retail sales are seen expanding by 0.4% m/m in July. Any positive surprise should provide an additional boost to the USD and might negate any near-term bearish bias surrounding the major.
  • Oil prices fell on Wednesday, pulled down by a report of increased U.S. crude inventories and as a darkening economic outlook stoked expectations of lower fuel demand. U.S. crude stocks rose by 3.7 million barrels in the week to Aug. 10, to 410.8 million barrels, private industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 1.6 million barrels, the API said Official U.S. fuel inventory data is due to be published later on Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration. Sentiment was also clouded by a darkening economic outlook which could start impacting oil demand, traders said. The OECD's composite leading indicator, which covers the western advanced economies plus China, India, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa, peaked in January but has since fallen and slipped below trend in May and June. World trade volume growth also peaked in January at almost 5.7 percent year-on-year, but nearly halved to less than 3 percent by May, according to the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. OPEC, in its monthly report Monday, said its member production for July (from secondary sources) rose 41,000 bpd to 32.32 million bpd, led by increases in Nigeria, Kuwait, Iraq and UAE. This was partially offset, however, by decreases in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Libya and Venezuela. The rise in OPEC production comes just a few months after the oil cartel agreed to ease curbs on output restrictions, which had been put in place by the production-cut pact in November 2016 to rid excess crude supplies from the market. OPEC agreed in June to raise output at a nominal increase of 1 million barrels a day (bpd) in an effort to stabilize oil prices and ease the threat of a global supply deficit amid expectations for a drop in Iranian exports.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
15th August 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,189-1,194 1,207 1,220
Silver-XAG 15.10 15.50 16.40-16.60
Crude Oil 66.50 67.00-67.60 68.20
EURO/USD 1.1365-1.1400 1.1450 1.1510-1.1660
GBP/USD 1.2750-1.2840 1.2900 1.2950-1.2990
USD/JPY 111.40-112.00 112.50 113.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
15th August 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,180-1,172 1,166 1,155
Silver-XAG 14.80-14.50 13.90 13.50
Crude Oil 65.70-65.00 64.00 63.30
EURO/USD 1.1120 1.1200 1.1120
GBP/USD 1.2700-1.2660 1.2580 1.2500
USD/JPY 111.00 110.20-109.80 109.40

Intra-Day Strategy (15th August 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1198.64/oz and low of US$1191.98/oz. Gold down by 0.0192% at US$1193.83/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1284) and breakage above will call for 1296-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1189-1220 keeping stop loss closing above 1220 and targeting 1180-1172 and 1166-1155. Buy above 1180-1155 with risk below 1150, targeting 1189-1194 and 1207-1220-1228.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,180-1,172
S2     1,166
S3     1,155
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,189-1,194
R2     1,207
R3     1,220

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

26.914

Buy
20-DMA   1219.59 Sell
50-DMA  

1243.56

Sell
100-DMA   1267.09 Sell
200-DMA   1280.41 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   28.785 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -12.280 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$15.09/oz and low of US$14.95/oz. Silver settled up by 0.602% at US$15.04/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.80-13.50 targeting 15.10-15.60-16.35 and 16.60-17.00; stop breakage below 13.50. Sell below 15.10-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 14.80-14.50 and 13.90-13.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.80-14.50
S2     13.90
S3     13.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.10
R2     15.50
R3     16.40-16.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   31.731 Buy
20-DMA   15.36 Sell
50-DMA   15.72 Sell
100-DMA   16.03 Sell
200-DMA   16.34 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   7.471 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.212 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$67.75/bbl, intraday low of US$65.92/bbl and settled down by 1.198% to close at US$65.96/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 66.50-68.20 with stop loss at 69.00; targeting 65.70-65.00 and 63.95-63.30. Buy above 65.70-63.30 with risk daily closing below 63.30 and targeting 69.00-69.50 and 70.20-71.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     65.70-65.00
S2     64.00
S3     63.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     66.50
R2     67.00-67.60
R3     68.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.520 Sell
20-DMA   67.57 Buy
50-DMA   68.07 Buy
100-DMA   67.16 Buy
200-DMA   64.05 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   32.316 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.714 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1329/EUR, high of US$1.1429/EUR and settled the day down by 0.389% to close at US$1.1342/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1295-1.1120 with risk below 1.1120, targeting 1.1365-1.1400 and 1.1450-1.1510-1.660. Sell below 1.1365-1.1660 targeting 1.1295-1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1120-1.1080 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1120
S2     1.1200
S3     1.1120

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1365-1.1400
R2     1.1450
R3     1.1510-1.1660

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   27.121 Buy
20-DMA   1.1545 Sell
50-DMA   1.1647 Sell
100-DMA   1.1767 Sell
200-DMA   1.1812 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   9.0783 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0077 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2703/GBP, high of US$1.2826/GBP and settled the day down by 0.383% to close at US$1.2719/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2750-1.2990 with targets at 1.2700-1.2660 and 1.2580-1.2500. Buy above 1.2700-1.2500 with targets 1.2750-1.2840-1.2900 and 1.2950-1.2990 with stop loss closing below 1.2500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2700-1.2660
S2     1.2580
S3     1.2500

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2750-1.2840
R2     1.2900
R3     1.2950-1.2990

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

24.701

Buy
20-DMA   1.3022 Buy
50-DMA   1.3176 Buy
100-DMA   1.3343 Buy
200-DMA   1.3408 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   4.039 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0096 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY110.58/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.30/USD and settled the day up by 0.442% at JPY111.81/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.00-114.20 with risk above 114.20 targeting 111.40-111.00-110.60 and 109.80-109.00. Long positions above 111.40-109.820 with targets of 111.40-112.00 and 113.50-114.00-114.90 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.00
S2     110.20-109.80
S3     109.40

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.40-112.00
R2     112.50
R3     113.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.682 Buy
20-DMA   111.21 Buy
50-DMA   110.87 Buy
100-DMA   110.32 Buy
200-DMA   110.16 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   66.998 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.027 Sell

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