AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares pulled away from one-year lows on Thursday, after Beijing said it will hold trade talks with Washington this month, although Turkey's currency crisis and fears of an economic slowdown in China kept most markets in the red. China on Thursday said a delegation led by its vice commerce minister would travel to the United States for talks in late August at the invitation of Washington. The announcement by the Chinese commerce ministry of the planned meeting in late August comes after a lull in talks between the two sides. The last official round of talks was in early June when U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross met Chinese Vice Premier Liu He in Beijing. Despite the modest reprieve, markets remain vulnerable as signs of a slowdown in the Chinese economy and Turkey's volatile currency keep investors on guard.
  • The U.S. dollar retreated on Thursday as the lira recovered after slumping to a record low of 7.24 earlier this week. The dollar jumped to near a 13-month peak this week as the Turkish lira crisis and concerns on China’s economy provided supported to safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, the USD/TRY pair was trading 0.3% lower as Qatar promised to invest $15 billion in Turkey. The lira surged as much as 8% against the dollar in the previous session following the news. The Trump administration said Wednesday that Turkey’s imposition of retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. were “a step in the wrong direction,” while White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said U.S. tariffs announced last week will stay in place. The Aussie dollar was under pressure and has fallen 8% in the past six months amid the China-U.S. trade war and the recent Turkey crisis which drove a flight to the U.S. dollar and other safe-haven assets. The yuan strengthened and Chinese stocks pared some of their earlier losses after China said it would dispatch a delegation to the U.S. later this month, raising hopes that trade negotiations can resume after a two-month hiatus. Equities in Hong Kong and mainland China were more volatile, as the trade news was offset by a 5 percent slump in Tencent Holdings Ltd. after the Chinese technology company reported its first drop in profit in at least a decade. The yuan was the strongest currency in Asia on Thursday. Over the past three months, though, it has weakened about 8 percent against the dollar as the PBOC eased monetary policy to support a slowing economy and trade friction with the U.S. worsened. Policy makers have made it more expensive to short the yuan and urged banks to avoid “herd behavior” in the currency market. President Donald Trump has repeatedly called for a weaker U.S. dollar in a bid to help U.S. exporters, but his recent trade policies, including the imposition of import tariffs on some Turkish goods, have had the opposite effect of strengthening the greenback.
  • The dollar this week rose to a 13-month high against a basket of currencies, getting an extra boost as emerging markets have sold off on concern about contagion from Turkey and investors sought a safehaven in the U.S. currency. On August 10, Trump intensified the spat with Turkey over the detention in Turkey of U.S. evangelical pastor Andrew Brunson on terrorism charges by imposing higher tariffs on metal imports. The move sent the Turkish lira to a record low against the dollar and spurred declines in other emerging market currencies. Robust U.S. economic data this year, even as Europe and other major economies have lost some steam, has helped keep the U.S. Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates twice more this year, which should boost the appeal of the dollar further. Some analysts said that U.S. tax cuts passed last year by Congress which are boosting corporate earnings and economic growth have reinforced the reasons for raising interest rates. The $1.5 trillion tax cut and the $1.3 trillion spending bill enacted in March, have pushed forecasts for the fiscal deficit higher. The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly four years in the second quarter.
  • Oil prices were mixed on Thursday as data from the EIA showed the U.S. crude inventory level unexpectedly hiked by 6.8 million barrels in the week ending Aug 10. Analysts previously forecasted stockpiles would fall by 2.5 million barrels. Meanwhile, Beijing said on Thursday that it will send a delegation to the U.S. for trade talks in an attempt to alleviate tensions between the two countries. Chinese oil importers have not loaded crude oil from the U.S. since the start of this month, according to Reuters, compared with 300,000 barrels per day in June and July, In other news, Libya’s crude oil production has exceeded 1 million barrels per day for the first time since June, after port blockades and a kidnap incident triggered production outages 670,000 barrels per day before, according to S&P Global Platts.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
16th August 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,180 1,189-1,194 1,207
Silver-XAG 14.80-15.10 15.50 16.40-16.60
Crude Oil 65.00-65.70 66.50 67.00-67.60
EURO/USD 1.1400 1.1450 1.1510-1.1660
GBP/USD 1.2750-1.2840 1.2900 1.2950-1.2990
USD/JPY 112.50 112.50 113.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
16th August 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,172-1,166 1,160 1,151
Silver-XAG 14.50-13.90 13.50 13.00
Crude Oil 64.00-63.30 62.80 61.50
EURO/USD 1.1320-1.1250 1.1200 1.1120
GBP/USD 1.2700-1.2660 1.2580 1.2750-1.2840
USD/JPY 110.70 110.20-109.80 109.40

Intra-Day Strategy (16th August 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1194.56/oz and low of US$1173.02/oz. Gold down by 1.622% at US$1174.58/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1284) and breakage above will call for 1296-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1180-1207 keeping stop loss closing above 1207 and targeting 1172-1166 and 1160-1151. Buy above 1172-1151 with risk below 1150, targeting 1180-1189-1194 and 1207-1220.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,172-1,166
S2     1,160
S3     1,151
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,180
R2     1,189-1,194
R3     1,207

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

21.8122

Buy
20-DMA   1209.48 Sell
50-DMA  

1236.48

Sell
100-DMA   1262.08 Sell
200-DMA   1211.48 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   14.772 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -15.963 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$15.06/oz and low of US$14.95/oz. Silver settled up by 0.602% at US$15.41/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.50-13.00 targeting 14.90-15.10-15.60 and 16.35-16.60; stop breakage below 13.00. Sell below 14.80-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 14.50-13.90 and 13.50-13.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.50-13.90
S2     13.50
S3     13.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80-15.10
R2     15.50
R3     16.40-16.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   28.875 Buy
20-DMA   15.24 Sell
50-DMA   15.65 Sell
100-DMA   16.03 Sell
200-DMA   16.32 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   13.42 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.281 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$66.23/bbl, intraday low of US$63.94/bbl and settled down by 2.39% to close at US$64.32/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 65.00-67.60 with stop loss at 67.60; targeting 63.95-63.30 and 62.80-61.50. Buy above 64.00-61.50 with risk daily closing below 61.50 and targeting 65.00-65.70-66.50 and 67.00-67.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     64.00-63.30
S2     62.80
S3     61.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     65.00-65.70
R2     66.50
R3     67.00-67.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.458 Sell
20-DMA   67.13 Buy
50-DMA   67.86 Buy
100-DMA   67.07 Buy
200-DMA   64.03 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   16.297 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.972 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1300/EUR, high of US$1.1543/EUR and settled the day up by 0.0176% to close at US$1.1344/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1295-1.1120 with risk below 1.1120, targeting 1.1365-1.1400 and 1.1450-1.1510-1.660. Sell below 1.1365-1.1660 targeting 1.1295-1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1120-1.1080 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1320-1.1250
S2     1.1200
S3     1.1120

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1400
R2     1.1450
R3     1.1510-1.1660

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   31.297 Buy
20-DMA   1.1529 Sell
50-DMA   1.1636 Sell
100-DMA   1.1759 Sell
200-DMA   1.1807 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   15.027 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0081 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2660/GBP, high of US$1.2734/GBP and settled the day down by 0.180% to close at US$1.2695/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2750-1.2990 with targets at 1.2700-1.2660 and 1.2580-1.2500. Buy above 1.2700-1.2500 with targets 1.2750-1.2840-1.2900 and 1.2950-1.2990 with stop loss closing below 1.2500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2700-1.2660
S2     1.2580
S3     1.2750-1.2840

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2750-1.2840
R2     1.2900
R3     1.2950-1.2990

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

24.701

Buy
20-DMA   1.3022 Buy
50-DMA   1.3176 Buy
100-DMA   1.3343 Buy
200-DMA   1.3408 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   4.039 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0096 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY110.42/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.42/USD and settled the day up by 0.368% at JPY110.73/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.00-114.20 with risk above 114.20 targeting 111.40-111.00-110.60 and 109.80-109.00. Long positions above 111.40-109.820 with targets of 111.40-112.00 and 113.50-114.00-114.90 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.70
S2     110.20-109.80
S3     109.40

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.50
R2     112.50
R3     113.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.682 Buy
20-DMA   111.21 Buy
50-DMA   110.87 Buy
100-DMA   110.32 Buy
200-DMA   110.16 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   66.998 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.027 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING