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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares won a modest reprieve on Friday after China and the United States agreed to hold their first trade talks since June next week and as the Turkish lira extended gains from its record low earlier this week. News that a Chinese delegation led by Vice Minister of Commerce Wang Shouwen will meet U.S. representatives helped to improve the mood. But the impact could be short-lived as such lower-level talks alone are unlikely to resolve the trade dispute. White House Economic adviser Larry Kudlow warned Beijing not to underestimate President Donald Trump's resolve in pushing for changes in China's economic policies. Their weakness stemmed also from falls in their currencies after the Turkish lira plunged this month on concerns about diplomatic rifts between Ankara and Washington.
  • The U.S dollar was little changed on Friday, while the Chinese yuan slipped after posting its biggest daily gain since January 2017 in offshore trade on Thursday following news that China and the U.S. will resume trade talks later in August. The index climbed to 96.984, its highest since June 2017 on Wednesday when concerns over China’s economic health and Turkish’s lira crisis drove investors to the greenback and other safe-haven assets. News that Chinese and U.S. officials will begin trade talks later this month improved market sentiment, even as Larry Kudlow, Trump’s top economic aide, warned China that the U.S. is determined to get a good deal. The dollar stepped back from 13-1/2-month highs against other major currencies on Friday as talks next week between China and the United States offered some hope that the world's two largest economies will find a way to head off a full-blown trade war. The dollar lost steam, however, after China and the United States agreed on Thursday to hold a new round of trade talks on Aug. 21-22, helping stem risk aversion in the broader markets. The euro, which had also been hit by fears of a spillover from Turkey's financial crisis, was among the currencies to benefit from the news of trade talks.
  • The euro was down 0.25 percent this week, having brushed a 13-month low of $1.1301 in the wake of concerns that the Turkish crisis could hurt European banks. Considering that European banks' exposure to Turkey is relatively limited, this week's reaction by the euro looked overdone. But the rise in Italian bond yields amid the country's fiscal concerns may continue indefinitely and limit the bounce by the euro. The Turkish lira was little changed at 5.87 per dollar , and the closure of Turkish financial markets for a string of national holidays during Aug. 21-24 also provided some respite. The lira plunged to a record low of 7.24 on Monday before mounting a three-day rebound, helped by factors including measures by the Turkish central bank to support its currency and Qatar's pledge to invest $15 billion in Turkey. However, there are still concerns over Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan's policies to combat the country's double-digit inflation and his row with Washington over detained American pastor Andrew Brunson. Investors' immediate focus was on how the lira could react to a Standard & Poor's sovereign credit rating report on Turkey due later on Friday. Back In May, S&P cut Turkey's rating further into junk territory.
  • Oil prices slipped on Friday despite tensions between U.S. and China seemingly eased after White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow confirmed that Chinese and U.S. officials will meet later in August to resume trade talks. In an interview with CNBC, Kudlow said that China should be aware that U.S. President Donald Trump is determined the administration gets a good deal at the first major meeting between the two countries in more than two months. Markets were worried a potential full-blown trade war between the U.S. and China would slow global economic growth and curb energy consumption, while a standoff between the U.S. and Turkey subsequently sparked fears of contagion among emerging markets. Oil prices were under pressure after data from the EIA showed on Wednesday that the U.S. crude inventory level unexpectedly hiked by 6.8 million barrels in the week ending Aug 10. Analysts previously forecasted stockpiles would fall by 2.5 million barrels.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
17th August 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,180 1,189-1,194 1,207
Silver-XAG 14.80-15.10 15.50 16.40-16.60
Crude Oil 65.00-65.70 66.50 67.00-67.60
EURO/USD 1.1400 1.1450 1.1510-1.1660
GBP/USD 1.2750-1.2840 1.2900 1.2950-1.2990
USD/JPY 111.40-112.00 112.50 113.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
17th August 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,172-1,166 1,160 1,151
Silver-XAG 14.50-13.90 13.50 13.00
Crude Oil 64.00-63.30 62.80 61.50
EURO/USD 1.1320-1.1250 1.1200 1.1400
GBP/USD 1.2700-1.2660 1.2580 1.2500
USD/JPY 110.70 110.20-109.80 109.40

Intra-Day Strategy (17th August 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1181.94/oz and low of US$1160.10/oz. Gold down by 0.0825% at US$1173.96/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1284) and breakage above will call for 1296-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1180-1207 keeping stop loss closing above 1207 and targeting 1172-1166 and 1160-1151. Buy above 1172-1151 with risk below 1150, targeting 1180-1189-1194 and 1207-1220.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,172-1,166
S2     1,160
S3     1,151
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,180
R2     1,189-1,194
R3     1,207

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

21.8122

Buy
20-DMA   1209.48 Sell
50-DMA  

1236.48

Sell
100-DMA   1262.08 Sell
200-DMA   1211.48 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   14.772 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -15.963 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$14.82/oz and low of US$14.32/oz. Silver settled up by 1.386% at US$14.63/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.50-13.00 targeting 14.90-15.10-15.60 and 16.35-16.60; stop breakage below 13.00. Sell below 14.80-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 14.50-13.90 and 13.50-13.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.50-13.90
S2     13.50
S3     13.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80-15.10
R2     15.50
R3     16.40-16.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   28.875 Buy
20-DMA   15.24 Sell
50-DMA   15.65 Sell
100-DMA   16.03 Sell
200-DMA   16.32 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   13.42 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.281 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$64.92/bbl, intraday low of US$63.88/bbl and settled up by 0.699% to close at US$64.77/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 65.00-67.60 with stop loss at 67.60; targeting 63.95-63.30 and 62.80-61.50. Buy above 64.00-61.50 with risk daily closing below 61.50 and targeting 65.00-65.70-66.50 and 67.00-67.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     64.00-63.30
S2     62.80
S3     61.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     65.00-65.70
R2     66.50
R3     67.00-67.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.458 Sell
20-DMA   67.13 Buy
50-DMA   67.86 Buy
100-DMA   67.07 Buy
200-DMA   64.03 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   16.297 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.972 Sell

EUR/USD

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EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1335/EUR, high of US$1.1408/EUR and settled the day up by 0.282% to close at US$1.1375/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1295-1.1120 with risk below 1.1120, targeting 1.1365-1.1400 and 1.1450-1.1510-1.660. Sell below 1.1365-1.1660 targeting 1.1295-1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1120-1.1080 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1320-1.1250
S2     1.1200
S3     1.1400

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1400
R2     1.1450
R3     1.1510-1.1660

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   31.801 Buy
20-DMA   1.1529 Sell
50-DMA   1.1636 Sell
100-DMA   1.1759 Sell
200-DMA   1.1807 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   15.027 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0081 Buy

GBP/USD

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GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2684/GBP, high of US$1.2753/GBP and settled the day down by 0.126% to close at US$1.2709/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2750-1.2990 with targets at 1.2700-1.2660 and 1.2580-1.2500. Buy above 1.2700-1.2500 with targets 1.2750-1.2840-1.2900 and 1.2950-1.2990 with stop loss closing below 1.2500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2700-1.2660
S2     1.2580
S3     1.2500

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2750-1.2840
R2     1.2900
R3     1.2950-1.2990

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

24.701

Buy
20-DMA   1.3022 Buy
50-DMA   1.3176 Buy
100-DMA   1.3343 Buy
200-DMA   1.3408 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   4.039 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0096 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY111.11/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.11/USD and settled the day up by 0.153% at JPY110.90/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.00-114.20 with risk above 114.20 targeting 111.40-111.00-110.60 and 109.80-109.00. Long positions above 111.40-109.820 with targets of 111.40-112.00 and 113.50-114.00-114.90 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.70
S2     110.20-109.80
S3     109.40

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.40-112.00
R2     112.50
R3     113.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.682 Buy
20-DMA   111.21 Buy
50-DMA   110.87 Buy
100-DMA   110.32 Buy
200-DMA   110.16 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   66.998 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.027 Sell

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