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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian share markets crept cautiously higher on Monday as investors awaited developments on proposed Sino-U.S. trade talks and the Chinese yuan rallied away from dangerous lows. The yuan reached its highest in a week at 6.8512 per dollar as Beijing acted to prevent a test of the psychologically important 7.0000 level. Investors were also encouraged by news China and the United States will hold lower-level trade talks this month, offering hope that they might resolve an escalating tariff war. Reports suggested the talks in Washington would take place on Aug. 21 and 22, just before U.S. tariffs on $16 billion of Chinese goods take effect. The U.S. Trade Representative's office said on Friday it doubled the length of tariff hearings on the next $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to six days from the previously planned three due to overwhelming demand from companies to testify. The hearings will be held Aug. 20-24 and on Aug. 27. Dealers cited speculation the talks could set the stage for a summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in November. Helping the general mood was a steadying in the Turkish lira, which was holding around 6.0000 per dollar on Monday. Qatar and Turkey's central banks have signed a currency swap to provide liquidity and support for financial stability, Qatar's central bank said on Sunday. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's August policy meeting are due on Wednesday and should show policy makers upbeat on the economy and committed to further gradual rate hikes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other central bankers meet at Jackson Hole from Friday to discuss the root causes of stubbornly low inflation, slow wage growth and tepid productivity gains. The prospect of yet higher U.S. rates had been underpinning the dollar, though the currency took a knock on Friday as risk appetite improved just a little.
  • The dollar edged higher on Monday as confirmation was awaited that there will be talks this week between China and the United States, which markets hope will lead to an easing of their trade disputes. The dollar's advance halted ahead of anticipated trade talks between Chinese and U.S. officials in Washington. Media reports say the talks will take place in the next few days. Receding fears over the Turkish lira's late plunge on Friday reduced risk aversion in the broader markets, lifting the euro. Ishizuki said that the lira "could cause less of a buzz as Turkey is headed for a long holiday, and with credit downgrades done swiftly and now out of the way." The Turkish financial markets will be closed for national holidays August 21-24. Standard & Poor's cut Turkey's sovereign credit rating by one notch to B+ from BB- on Friday, sending it deeper into "junk" territory, citing extreme lira volatility and forecasting a recession next year. The Turkish lira had snapped a three-day rebound On Friday, sliding more than 5 percent against the dollar on fears the United States would impose more economic sanctions unless Turkey handed over detained American pastor Andrew Brunson. Kazushige Kaida, head of foreign exchange at State Street Bank in Tokyo, said dollar/yen could test the 110-level if there would unexpectedly be a negative outcome from the Sino-U.S. trade talks.
  • Oil prices were mixed on Monday, weighed down by concerns over slowing economic growth but supported by the expected impact of U.S. sanctions on Iran, which will start targeting the petroleum industry from November. Traders said U.S. sanctions against Iran were supporting prices. The U.S. government has introduced financial sanctions against Iran which, from November, will also target the country's petroleum sector. Iran produced around 3.65 million barrels per day of crude in July, according to a Reuters survey, making it the third biggest producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Despite this, analysts said oil markets were held back by concerns of a slowdown in economic growth because of the U.S.-Chinese trade tensions, and because of weakness in many emerging economies. China and the United States will hold trade talks this month, the two governments said late last week, in a bid to resolve an escalating tariff war that threatens to engulf all trade between the world's two largest economies. Still, White House Economic adviser Larry Kudlow warned Beijing not to underestimate President Donald Trump's resolve in what Kudlow called a "battle to eliminate tariffs and non-tariff barriers and quotas, to stop the theft of intellectual property and to stop the forced transfer of technology". In the United States, U.S. energy companies last week kept the oil rig count unchanged at 869, according to the Baker Hughes energy services firm.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
20th August 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,189-1,194 1,207 1,220
Silver-XAG 14.80-15.10 15.50 16.40-16.60
Crude Oil 65.70 66.50 67.00-67.60
EURO/USD 1.1450 1.1510-1.1660 1.1700
GBP/USD 1.2750-1.2840 1.2900 1.2950-1.2990
USD/JPY 111.40-112.00 112.50 113.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
20th August 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,180 1,172-1,166 1,160
Silver-XAG 14.50-13.90 13.50 13.00
Crude Oil 65.00 64.00-63.30 62.80
EURO/USD 1.1400 1.1320-1.1250 1.1200
GBP/USD 1.2700-1.2660 1.2580 1.2500
USD/JPY 110.70 110.20-109.80 109.40

Intra-Day Strategy (20th August 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1187.31/oz and low of US$1182.99/oz. Gold downby 0.217% at US$1182.99/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices arebelow 50DMA (1284) and breakage above will call for1296-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is inoversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutralterritory and givingpositivecrossover to confirm bullishstance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1180-1207keeping stop loss closing above 1207and targeting1172-1166 and 1160-1151.Buy above 1172-1151with risk below 1150, targeting1180-1189-1194 and 1207-1220.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,180
S2     1,172-1,166
S3     1,160
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,189-1,194
R2     1,207
R3     1,220

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

21.8122

Buy
20-DMA   1209.48 Sell
50-DMA  

1236.48 1262.08

Sell
100-DMA   1262.08 Sell
200-DMA   1211.48 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   14.772 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -15.963 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$14.81/oz and low of US$14.75/oz. Silver settled up by 0.067% at US$14.77/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overboughtregion and givingpositive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.50-13.00 targeting 14.90-15.10-15.60 and 16.35-16.60; stop breakage below13.00. Sell below 14.80-17.00with stop loss above17.00; targeting 14.50-13.90 and 13.50-13.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.50-13.90
S2     13.50
S3     13.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80-15.10
R2     15.50
R3     16.40-16.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   28.875 Buy
20-DMA   15.24 Sell
50-DMA   15.65 Sell
100-DMA   16.03 Sell
200-DMA   16.32 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   13.42 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.281 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$65.22/bbl, intraday low of US$64.86/bbl and settled down by 0.046% to close at US$65.12/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining belowits 50DMA i.e. 61.15which is amajorresistanceand breakage abovewill call for62.20-62.80. MACD is abovezero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearishstance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region andgivingpositivecrossover for confirmation ofbullishstance; while the RSI is inoversold region and more downsidecan be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below65.00-67.60with stop loss at67.60; targeting63.95-63.30 and 62.80-61.50.Buy above 64.00-61.50with risk daily closing below 61.50and targeting65.00-65.70-66.50 and 67.00-67.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     65.00
S2     64.00-63.30
S3     62.80

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     65.70
R2     66.50
R3     67.00-67.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.458 Sell
20-DMA   67.13 Buy
50-DMA   67.86 Buy
100-DMA   67.07 Buy
200-DMA   64.03 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   16.297 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.972 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1439/EUR, high of US$1.1411/EUR and settled the day up by 0.139% to close at US$1.1423/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and givingnegative crossovers to signal for bearishoutlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1400-1.1200 with risk below 1.1200, targeting 1.1450-1.1510 and 1.660-1.1700. Sell below 1.1450-1.1700 targeting 1.1400-1.1320-1.1250 and 1.1200-1.1120 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1400
S2     1.1320-1.1250
S3     1.1200

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1450
R2     1.1510-1.1660
R3     1.1700

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   31.801 Buy
20-DMA   1.1529 Sell
50-DMA   1.1636 Sell
100-DMA   1.1759 Sell
200-DMA   1.1807 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   15.027 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0081 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2731/GBP, high of US$1.2753/GBP and settled the day up by 0.283% to close at US$1.2744/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positivecrossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; short positions below 1.2750-1.2990with targets at1.2700-1.2660 and 1.2580-1.2500. Buy above 1.2700-1.2500 with targets1.2750-1.2840-1.2900 and 1.2950-1.2990 with stop loss closing below 1.2500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2700-1.2660
S2     1.2580
S3     1.2500

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2750-1.2840
R2     1.2900
R3     1.2950-1.2990

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

24.701

Buy
20-DMA   1.3022 Buy
50-DMA   1.3176 Buy
100-DMA   1.3343 Buy
200-DMA   1.3408 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   4.039 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0096 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY111.06/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.31/USD and settled the day down by 0.351% at JPY110.50/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling tobuyas it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.00-114.20 with risk above 114.20 targeting 111.40-111.00-110.60 and 109.80-109.00. Long positions above111.40-109.820with targets of111.40-112.00 and 113.50-114.00-114.90with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.70
S2     110.20-109.80
S3     109.40

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.40-112.00
R2     112.50
R3     113.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.682 Buy
20-DMA   111.21 Buy
50-DMA   110.87 Buy
100-DMA   110.32 Buy
200-DMA   110.16 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   66.998 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.027 Sell

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