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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares rose on Monday, taking heart from comments by the Federal Reserve chairman that drove Wall Street to record highs on Friday, and as a tweak to the way China's central bank manages its currency boosted the yuan and stocks. Adding to the positive mood, U.S. and Mexican trade negotiators appeared close to reaching a common position on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), with Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo saying on Sunday that talks have "continued to make progress". A prospective trade deal with Mexico "takes a little bit of global trade war risk off the table," said Robert Carnell, chief economist and head of research, Asia-Pacific at ING. The yuan hit a two-and-a-half-week high against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Monday as the PBOC set the day's midpoint at a stronger-than-expected level. U.S. President Donald Trump said in a Reuters interview last week that he was "not thrilled" with Powell's rate hike policy.
  • The Turkish lira gained slightly against the dollar on Monday as markets reopened after last week's holiday, with investors set to refocus on a bitter dispute between Ankara and Washington over an American pastor being tried in Turkey. The slide has been driven by investor concerns over President Tayyip Erdogan's grip on monetary policy and the standoff with Washington over the fate of pastor Andrew Brunson, being tried in Turkey on terrorism charges that he denies. In his first comments on the currency crisis since before the holiday, Erdogan said on Saturday the commitment and determination of Turks was the guarantee needed to combat attacks on Turkey's economy. Erdogan has cast the lira slide as the result of an "economic war" against Turkey, a comment echoed by his spokesman last week when U.S. President Donald Trump ruled out concessions to Ankara in return for Brunson's release. Trump's national security adviser, John Bolton, subsequently said Ankara had made a "big mistake" by not freeing Brunson and voiced scepticism about Qatar's offer of $15 billion in investment support for Turkey.
  • Gold prices slipped on Monday, while the dollar also eased on comments from the Federal Reserve chairman in support of a gradual approach to raising rates. Last Friday, Powell said during a speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming last Friday that "further, gradual" rate hikes were likely in the future, noting the economy is "strong" and able to withstand tighter monetary policy. His comments came despite President Donald Trump’s criticism of higher borrowing costs as he said recently that he is “not thrilled” with the Fed’s decision to hike rates. Gold has lost its appeal as a safe-haven asset recently as investors turned to the U.S. dollar instead amid recent international trade disputes and the Turkish currency crisis. Vice Ministers from China and the U.S. are due to meet later this month to resume trade negotiations, after the last round of trade talks ended with little progress made. In addition, US tariffs on $16 billion of Chinese goods went into effect on August 24th, with China quick to follow with reciprocal restrictions and a threat to file a complaint with the World Trade Organization. Asian equities markets were mostly higher on Monday as the Dow and the S&P500 hit record highs on Friday following Powell’s speech.
  • Oil prices rose on Monday as Baker Hughes data released on Friday showed working oil rigs in the U.S. fell by nine to 860 last week, the biggest drop since May 2016. The two countries are poised to resolve their bilateral differences over the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as soon as Monday, reports suggested. On the other hand, the crude markets also draw support from U.S. sanctions against Iran, which from November will include oil exports. The sanctions are being reinstated after U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal earlier this year. Iran is the third-biggest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, supplying around 2.5 mn bpd of crude and condensate to markets this year, equivalent to around 2.5% of global consumption. Most analysts expect this figure to fall by at least 1 million bpd once sanctions kick in.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
27th August 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,207-1,214 1,220 1,227-1,235
Silver-XAG 14.80-15.10 15.50 16.40-16.60
Crude Oil 69.20-70.00 70.70 71.50
EURO/USD 1.1610-1.1660 1.1720 1.1800
GBP/USD 1.2870 1.2950 1.2990-1.3060
USD/JPY 111.40-112.00 112.50 113.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
27th August 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,196-1,189 1,180 1,172
Silver-XAG 14.50-13.90 13.50 13.00
Crude Oil 68.50-67.60 67.00 66.50-65.70
EURO/USD 1.1540-1.1510 1.1450 1.1400-1.1320
GBP/USD 1.2800 1.2750 1.2700-1.2660
USD/JPY 110.70 110.20-109.80 109.40

Intra-Day Strategy (27th August 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1208.46/oz and low of US$1183.04/oz. Gold up by 1.753% at US$1205.84/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1284) and breakage above will call for 1296-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1207-1235 keeping stop loss closing above 1235 and targeting 1,196-1189-1180 and 1172-1166. Buy above 1196-1172 with risk below 1172, targeting 1207-1214 and 1220-1227-1235.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,196-1,189
S2     1,180
S3     1,172
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,207-1,214
R2     1,220
R3     1,227-1,235

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.882

Buy
20-DMA   1200.75 Sell
50-DMA  

1227.47

Sell
100-DMA   1269.04 Sell
200-DMA   1290.81 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   73.867 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -9.646 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$17.10/oz and low of US$14.45/oz. Silver settled up by 2.422% at US$14.80/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to 17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.50-13.00 targeting 14.90-15.10-15.60 and 16.35-16.60; stop breakage below 13.00. Sell below 14.80-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 14.50-13.90 and 13.50-13.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.50-13.90
S2     13.50
S3     13.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80-15.10
R2     15.50
R3     16.40-16.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   61.532 Buy
20-DMA   15.02 Sell
50-DMA   15.53 Sell
100-DMA   16.05 Sell
200-DMA   16.34 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   61.367 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.252 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$69.18/bbl, intraday low of US$67.67/bbl and settled down by 1.00% to close at US$68.44/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for 62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 69.20-71.50 with stop loss at 71.50; targeting 68.50-67.60-67.00 and 66.50-65.70. Buy above 68.50-65.00 with risk daily closing below 65.00 and targeting 69.20-70.00 and 70.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     68.50-67.60
S2     67.00
S3     66.50-65.70

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     69.20-70.00
R2     70.70
R3     71.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.570 Sell
20-DMA   66.93 Buy
50-DMA   68.50 Buy
100-DMA   68.30 Buy
200-DMA   64.77 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.919 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.201 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1534/EUR, high of US$1.1639/EUR and settled the day up by 0.745% to close at US$1.1621/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1540-1.1295 with risk below 1.1250, targeting 1.1610-1.1660 and 1.1720-1.1800. Sell below 1.1610-1.1800 targeting 1.1540-1.1450-1.1400 and 1.1360-1.1320 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1540-1.1510
S2     1.1450
S3     1.1400-1.1320

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1610-1.1660
R2     1.1720
R3     1.1800

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.914 Buy
20-DMA   1.1525 Sell
50-DMA   1.1609 Sell
100-DMA   1.1766 Sell
200-DMA   1.1960 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   77.404 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0018 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2798/GBP, high of US$1.2880/GBP and settled the day up by 0.296% to close at US$1.2848/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2870-1.3060 with targets at 1.2800-1.2750-1.2700 and 1.2660-1.2580. Buy above 1.2800-1.2660 with targets 1.2870-1.2950 and 1.2990-1.3060 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2800
S2     1.2750
S3     1.2700-1.2660

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2870
R2     1.2950
R3     1.2990-1.3060

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.941

Buy
20-DMA   1.2867 Buy
50-DMA   1.3052 Buy
100-DMA   1.3330 Buy
200-DMA   1.3548 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   48.658 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0072 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY111.09/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.09/USD and settled the day up by 0.0044% at JPY111.25/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.70-112.50 with risk above 112.50 targeting 109.80-109.00. Long positions above 110.20-109.40 with targets of 110.70-111.40-112.00 and 113.50-114.00 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.70
S2     110.20-109.80
S3     109.40

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.40-112.00
R2     112.50
R3     113.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.376 Buy
20-DMA   111.02 Buy
50-DMA   111.03 Buy
100-DMA   110.11 Buy
200-DMA   109.82 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   83.492 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.097 Sell

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