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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares advanced on Tuesday and the U.S. dollar hovered near one-month lows as a U.S.-Mexico deal to overhaul the North American Free Trade Agreement boosted risk appetite. Investors expect Canada too would agree to the new terms to preserve a three-nation pact, ultimately dispelling the economic uncertainty prompted by U.S. President Donald Trump's repeated threats to ditch the 1994 NAFTA accord. The upbeat trade outlook was further boosted by news that Washington was pressuring the European Union to accelerate tariff talks. However, some analysts were cautious about the rally. Disputes between the United States and its trading partners have been a drag on investor sentiment for much of the year despite solid economic fundamentals and two robust quarters of corporate earnings. The United States and China held two days of talks last week without a major breakthrough as their trade war escalated with the activation of another round of duelling tariffs on $16 billion of each country's goods. Investors will also stay focused on U.S. economic data with consumer confidence figures due later in the day and the latest estimate for second-quarter gross domestic product expected on Wednesday.
  • The dollar remained near one-month lows against the euro on Tuesday, but gained against the yen after a U.S.-Mexico deal aimed at overhauling the North American Free Trade Agreement boosted appetite for riskier assets. The agreement put pressure on Canada to consent to new terms in order to preserve a three-nation pact, which could revive economic uncertainty caused by U.S. President Donald Trump's repeated threats to ditch the 1994 accord. However, Ayako Sera, Tokyo-based market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, said the U.S.-Mexico deal slightly eased concerns about an escalation of international trade tensions for now. The dollar has fallen more than 2 percent since hitting a high not seen in over a year on Aug. 15, amid U.S. President Donald Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates at a time when the U.S. government was trying to stimulate the economy. U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled details of the agreement that he says will replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The new deal is expected to last 16 years and will be reviewed every six years pending its approval by Congress, according to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.
  • Oil prices dipped on Tuesday, weighed down by gradually rising output from producer club OPEC but supported by supply risks from places such as Venezuela, Africa and Iran. Traders said markets were range-bound, hemmed in by conflicting price signals. The monitoring committee of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) found that oil producers participating in a supply-reduction agreement, which includes non-OPEC member Russia, cut output in July by 9 percent more than called for. The findings for last month compare with a compliance level of 120 percent for June and 147 percent for May, meaning participants have been steadily increasing production. OPEC and its allies agreed in late 2016 to cut output from 2017 by around 1.8 million bpd versus October 2016 levels. Weekly inventory data will be published by the private API later on Tuesday. Official data is due on Wednesday from the U.S. EIA. Meanwhile, the IEA on Monday warned of further supply disruptions, especially from Venezuela, where an economic crisis has cut deep into the OPEC-member's oil output. Venezuelan crude oil exports had halved in the previous two years to just 1 million bpd by mid-2018, according to trade flow data "We can expect a further fall," the IEA's Executive Director Fatih Birol told Reuters in Norway on Monday. Birol also warned that African OPEC-members Libya and Nigeria "seem both still fragile countries" despite some recent improvements. Birol said it was too early to gauge the impact of the U.S. sanctions that will target Iran from November.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
28th August 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,214 1,220 1,227-1,235
Silver-XAG 14.80-15.10 15.50 16.40-16.60
Crude Oil 69.20-70.00 70.70 71.50
EURO/USD 1.1690-1.1760 1.1800 1.1850
GBP/USD 1.2950 1.2990-1.3060 1.3100
USD/JPY 111.40-112.00 112.50 113.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
28th August 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,207 1,196-1,189 1,180
Silver-XAG 14.50-13.90 13.50 13.00
Crude Oil 68.50-67.60 67.00 66.50-65.70
EURO/USD 1.1660-1.1610 1.1540 1.1510-1.1450
GBP/USD 1.2870-1.2800 1.2750 1.2700-1.2660
USD/JPY 110.70 110.20-109.80 109.40

Intra-Day Strategy (28th August 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1212.30/oz and low of US$1203.07/oz. Gold up by 0.325% at US$1203.07/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices arebelow 50DMA (1284) and breakage above will call for1296-1300. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is inoversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutralterritory and givingpositivecrossover to confirm bullishstance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1207-1235 keeping stop loss closing above 1235, targeting 1,196-1189-1180 and 1172-1166.Buy above 1196-1172with risk below 1172, targeting1207-1214 and 1220-1227-1235.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,207
S2     1,196-1,189
S3     1,180
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,214
R2     1,220
R3     1,227-1,235

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.472

Buy
20-DMA   1200.99 Sell
50-DMA  

1227.57

Sell
100-DMA   1269.09 Sell
200-DMA   1290.84 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   76.258 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -9.265 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$14.90/oz and low of US$14.73/oz. Silver settled up by 0.269% at US$14.88/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overboughtregion and givingpositive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.50-13.00 targeting 14.90-15.10-15.60 and 16.35-16.60; stop breakage below13.00. Sell below 14.80-17.00with stop loss above17.00; targeting 14.50-13.90 and 13.50-13.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.50-13.90
S2     13.50
S3     13.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80-15.10
R2     15.50
R3     16.40-16.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   61.532 Buy
20-DMA   15.02 Sell
50-DMA   15.53 Sell
100-DMA   16.05 Sell
200-DMA   16.34 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   61.367 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.252 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$68.83/bbl, intraday low of US$67.67/bbl and settled down by 0.467% to close at US$68.75/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining belowits 50DMA i.e. 61.15which is amajorresistanceand breakage abovewill call for62.20-62.80. MACD is abovezero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearishstance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region andgivingpositivecrossover for confirmation ofbullishstance; while the RSI is inoversold region and more downsidecan be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 69.20-71.50with stop loss at 71.50; targeting 68.50-67.60-67.00 and 66.50-65.70.Buy above 68.50-65.00with risk daily closing below 65.00and targeting 69.20-70.00 and 70.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     68.50-67.60
S2     67.00
S3     66.50-65.70

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     69.20-70.00
R2     70.70
R3     71.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.570 Sell
20-DMA   66.93 Buy
50-DMA   68.50 Buy
100-DMA   68.30 Buy
200-DMA   64.77 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.919 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.201 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1593/EUR, high of US$1.1693/EUR and settled the day up by 0.533% to close at US$1.1677/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and givingnegative crossovers to signal for bearishoutlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1540-1.1295with risk below 1.1250, targeting 1.1610-1.1660 and 1.1720-1.1800. Sell below 1.1610-1.1800 targeting 1.1540-1.1450-1.1400 and 1.1360-1.1320with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1660-1.1610
S2     1.1540
S3     1.1510-1.1450

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1690-1.1760
R2     1.1800
R3     1.1850

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.894 Buy
20-DMA   1.1529 Sell
50-DMA   1.1612 Sell
100-DMA   1.1760 Sell
200-DMA   1.1960 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   94.142 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0007 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2798/GBP, high of US$1.2900/GBP and settled the day up by 0.428% to close at US$1.2890/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positivecrossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2870-1.3060with targets at1.2800-1.2750-1.2700 and 1.2660-1.2580. Buy above 1.2800-1.2660 with targets1.2870-1.2950 and 1.2990-1.3060with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2870-1.2800
S2     1.2750
S3     1.2700-1.2660

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2950
R2     1.2990-1.3060
R3     1.3100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.941

Buy
20-DMA   1.2867 Buy
50-DMA   1.3052 Buy
100-DMA   1.3330 Buy
200-DMA   1.3548 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   48.658 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0072 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY110.93/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.34/USD and settled the day down by 0.2066% at JPY111.07/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling tobuyas it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.70-112.50 with risk above 112.50 targeting 109.80-109.00. Long positions above110.20-109.40with targets of110.70-111.40-112.00 and 113.50-114.00with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.70
S2     110.20-109.80
S3     109.40

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.40-112.00
R2     112.50
R3     113.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.376 Buy
20-DMA   111.02 Buy
50-DMA   111.03 Buy
100-DMA   110.11 Buy
200-DMA   109.82 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   83.492 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.097 Sell

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