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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares crept marginally higher on Wednesday as optimism over the U.S.-Mexico trade deal was quickly clouded by caution ahead of a looming deadline on tariffs with China. In Washington, Canada's main trade negotiator was in talks to preserve a three-nation North American Free Trade Agreement following Monday's deal between the United States and Mexico. President Trump warned that he could proceed with Mexico alone and levy tariffs on Canada if it does not come on board with the revised trade terms. Yet even if Trump were to go with Mexico alone, Congress would have to approve the deal in a process that would take months and put it beyond the mid-term elections. The White House has also said it wants to settle NAFTA before dealing with China, suggesting that trade dispute could run well into 2019. Major currencies were quiet, with the dollar index a whisker firmer at 94.807 after touching a four-week low overnight.
  • The dollar slipped on Wednesday and dipped to near a four-week low overnight as markets remain concerned over the intensifying China-U.S. trade war. Minori Uchida, chief currency strategist at MUFG Bank in Tokyo, said investors were closely watching developments in the Sino-U.S. trade dispute as the dealine for public comment on U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on another $200bn of Chinese goods is due early September. A lower-level trade talks between China and the U.S. ended last week with little progress made, while Trump is reportedly meeting his China counterpart Xi Jinping later this year to further discuss trade issues. His comments came a week after Trump said China is manipulating yuan to make up for having to pay tariffs on imports imposed by the U.S.
  • Gold prices edged lower while the dollar also slipped as investors awaited further development on the China-U.S. trade disputes. Investors are likely to keep their eyes on any further developments in the Sino-U.S. trade dispute as the dealine for public comment on U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese goods is due early September. A lower-level trade talks between China and the U.S. ended last week with little progress made, while Trump is reportedly meeting his China counterpart Xi Jinping later this year to further discuss trade issues. The news of a trade deal between U.S. and Meixo to overhaul NAFTA were also cited as headwind for the greenback.
  • Oil prices dipped on Wednesday, pulled down by a reported rise in U.S. crude inventories, although falling exports from Iran ahead of U.S. sanctions prevented the market from sinking further. In the United States, crude inventories rose slightly, by 38,000 barrels, to 405.7 million barrels in the week to Aug. 24, industry group the American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday. Official U.S. fuel inventory and crude production data will be published on Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Despite the rise in U.S. inventories, traders said crude prices have been relatively well supported by the prospect of U.S. sanctions against Iran, which will start to target its oil industry from November. Bowing to pressure from Washington, many crude buyers have already reduced orders from OPEC's third-biggest producer. Although Tehran is offering steep discounts, Iran's August crude oil and condensate loadings are estimated at 2.06 mn bpd, versus a peak of 3.09 million bpd in April, trade flows data on Thomson Reuters Eikon showed. Another concern is crisis-struck OPEC-member Venezuela, where oil exports have dropped by half since 2016 to below 1 million bpd. To stem tumbling output, Venezuelan state-run oil firm PDVSA said on Tuesday it had signed a $430 million investment agreement to increase production by 640,000 bpd at 14 oil fields, valuing the investment at $430 million. However, given the country's political and economic instability, many analysts doubted whether this investment would go through. Despite the risk of disruption especially from OPEC-countries like Venezuela, Iran, Libya and Nigeria, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (NYSE:BAC) said global supply could climb towards year-end. Adding to that will be new production in Canada, Brazil and from the United States, which the bank said "should provide a substantial boost to non-OPEC supplies" during the second-half of the year "taming upside pressures on Brent crude oil prices". Bank of America said it expected Brent prices to be in a $65 to $80 per barrel range "until Iran sanctions start to bite" in the first-half of 2019.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
29th August 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,207-1,214 1,220 1,227-1,235
Silver-XAG 14.80-15.10 15.50 16.40-16.60
Crude Oil 69.20-70.00 70.70 71.50
EURO/USD 1.1690-1.1760 1.1800 1.1850
GBP/USD 1.2870-1.2950 1.2990 1.3060-1.3100
USD/JPY 111.40-112.00 112.50 113.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
29th August 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,196-1,189 1,180 1,172
Silver-XAG 14.50-13.90 13.50 13.00
Crude Oil 68.50-67.60 67.00 66.50-65.70
EURO/USD 1.1660-1.1610 1.1540 1.1510-1.1450
GBP/USD 1.2800 1.2750 1.2700-1.2660
USD/JPY 110.70 110.20-109.80 109.40

Intra-Day Strategy (29th August 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1214.22/oz and low of US$1199.56/oz. Gold up by 0.0842% at US$1200.95/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1227) and breakage above will call for1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1207-1235 keeping stop loss closing above 1235, targeting 1,196-1189-1180 and 1172-1166.Buy above 1196-1172with risk below 1172, targeting1207-1214 and 1220-1227-1235.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,196-1,189
S2     1,180
S3     1,172
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,207-1,214
R2     1,220
R3     1,227-1,235

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.472

Buy
20-DMA   1200.99 Sell
50-DMA  

1227.57

Sell
100-DMA   1269.09 Sell
200-DMA   1290.84 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   76.258 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -9.265 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$14.98/oz and low of US$14.65/oz. Silver settled down by 1.077% at US$14.69/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.50-13.00 targeting 14.90-15.10-15.60 and 16.35-16.60; stop breakage below13.00. Sell below 14.80-17.00with stop loss above17.00; targeting 14.50-13.90 and 13.50-13.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.50-13.90
S2     13.50
S3     13.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80-15.10
R2     15.50
R3     16.40-16.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   61.532 Buy
20-DMA   15.02 Sell
50-DMA   15.53 Sell
100-DMA   16.05 Sell
200-DMA   16.34 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   61.367 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.252 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$69.05/bbl, intraday low of US$68.07/bbl and settled down by 0.639% to close at US$68.34/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 69.20-71.50with stop loss at 71.50; targeting 68.50-67.60-67.00 and 66.50-65.70.Buy above 68.50-65.00with risk daily closing below 65.00and targeting 69.20-70.00 and 70.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     68.50-67.60
S2     67.00
S3     66.50-65.70

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     69.20-70.00
R2     70.70
R3     71.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.570 Sell
20-DMA   66.93 Buy
50-DMA   68.50 Buy
100-DMA   68.30 Buy
200-DMA   64.77 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.919 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.201 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1661/EUR, high of US$1.1732/EUR and settled the day up by 0.145% to close at US$1.1693/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1540-1.1295with risk below 1.1250, targeting 1.1610-1.1660 and 1.1720-1.1800. Sell below 1.1610-1.1800 targeting 1.1540-1.1450-1.1400 and 1.1360-1.1320with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1660-1.1610
S2     1.1540
S3     1.1510-1.1450

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1690-1.1760
R2     1.1800
R3     1.1850

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.958 Buy
20-DMA   1.1530 Sell
50-DMA   1.1614 Sell
100-DMA   1.1754 Sell
200-DMA   1.1959 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   94.142 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0007 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2860/GBP, high of US$1.2931/GBP and settled the day down by 0.139% to close at US$1.2869/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2870-1.3060with targets at1.2800-1.2750-1.2700 and 1.2660-1.2580. Buy above 1.2800-1.2660 with targets1.2870-1.2950 and 1.2990-1.3060with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2800
S2     1.2750
S3     1.2700-1.2660

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2870-1.2950
R2     1.2990
R3     1.3060-1.3100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.941

Buy
20-DMA   1.2867 Buy
50-DMA   1.3052 Buy
100-DMA   1.3330 Buy
200-DMA   1.3548 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   48.658 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0072 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY110.94/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.35/USD and settled the day down by 0.108% at JPY111.18/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling tobuyas it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.70-112.50 with risk above 112.50 targeting 109.80-109.00. Long positions above110.20-109.40with targets of110.70-111.40-112.00 and 113.50-114.00with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.70
S2     110.20-109.80
S3     109.40

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.40-112.00
R2     112.50
R3     113.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.376 Buy
20-DMA   111.02 Buy
50-DMA   111.03 Buy
100-DMA   110.11 Buy
200-DMA   109.82 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   83.492 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.097 Sell

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