AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar fell for a fifth consecutive day on Thursday as easing concerns over trade conflicts fuelled appetite for riskier currencies though thin month-end markets checked losses. Against its main rivals, it held at a one-month low of 94.52 as some investors bet a likely trade deal between the United States and Canada would reduce the pool of money that has flocked to the dollar in recent days on concerns that any escalation in trade conflict would be beneficial to the currency. The United States and Canada expressed optimism on Wednesday that they could reach new NAFTA deal by a Friday, though Ottawa said a number of tricky issues remained. Sterling led currency gainers on hopes that Britain and the European Union will agree on future trade ties before Brexit takes effect. The EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said on Wednesday it was prepared to offer Britain an unprecedentedly close relationship, but that the bloc must prepare for a no-deal Brexit. Exaggerated in part by the unwinding of recently built short positions, the pound has recaptured $1.30 for the first time since Aug. 6 and euro/sterling has fallen 1.3 percent in the last two sessions to below 90 pence and is on track for its biggest two-day rise of 2018. The dollar was holding steady near one-month lows against a currency basket on Thursday as markets awaited trade developments, while the pound remained firm after rallying in the previous session as fears over a no-deal Brexit eased. But the new trade deal did little to indicate how a trade spat between the U.S. and China will play out after talks last week ended with little progress and both countries slapped fresh reciprocal tariffs on imports. Sterling was steady after rising above the 1.30 level against the dollar for the first time in three weeks on Wednesday after European Union negotiator Michel Barnier said the bloc was prepared to offer Britain a partnership after Brexit. Deteriorating relations between the U.S. and Ankara and worries about Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan's increasing control over monetary policy and the economy have seen the lira tumble almost 40% this year and hit record lows mid-month. Elsewhere in emerging markets, Argentina's peso slumped to record lows against the dollar as the country sought the early release of standby funds from the International Monetary Fund. Emerging market currencies have been hard hit by concerns that higher U.S. interest rates will pressure countries that have borrowed heavily in dollars in recent years.
  • Investors will get one of the week’s biggest economic reports when the second estimate of second quarter GDP is released at 8:30AM ET. The data is expected to show that the economy grew at a 4.0% annual rate in the April-June quarter, a slight downward revision from a preliminary estimate of 4.1%. That would still be the highest reading since the third quarter of 2014. The current U.S. economic expansion, already the second longest on record, has been given extra fuel in the form of major tax cuts, which will help keep the chances of a major slowdown quite low for the rest of this year. Besides the GDP report, today's economic calendar also features the July reading on pending home sales, which are forecast to rise 0.3% from the prior month. The day’s trading could be light, which is typical for late August, as it serves as the unofficial last week of summer ahead of the Labor Day holiday in the U.S. Elsewhere, in Europe, the region's major bourses were largely unchanged in quiet mid-morning trade, with most sectors moving in opposite directions.
  • Oil prices rose on Thursday, extending gains on growing evidence of serious disruptions to crude supply from Iran and Venezuela and after a fall in U.S. crude inventories. Brent has risen by almost 10 percent over the last two weeks on widespread perceptions that the global oil market is tightening and may run short in the next few months as U.S. sanctions restrict crude exports from Iran. Iranian crude exports will likely drop to just over 2 mn bpd in August, versus a peak of 3.1 mn bpd in April, as importers bow to American pressure to cut orders. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, of which Iran is the third-biggest producer, will discuss in December whether it can compensate for a sudden drop in Iranian supply after sanctions start in November, the head of Iraq's state oil marketer SOMO, Alaa al-Yasiri, said on Wednesday. Crude exports from crisis-struck OPEC member Venezuela have also fallen sharply, halving in recent years to around 1 million bpd. Official U.S. oil inventory data on Wednesday also helped the bullish trend U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by 2.6 mn barrels in the week to Aug. 24, to 405.79 million barrels, more than forecast, the EIA said. U.S. production was flat from the previous week's record of 11 mn bpd. The IEA has warned of a tightening market towards the end of the year, due to a combination of falling supply in countries such as Iran and Venezuela, and strong demand especially in Asia.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
30th August 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,207-1,214 1,220 1,227-1,235
Silver-XAG 14.80-15.10 15.50 16.40-16.60
Crude Oil 70.00-70.70 71.50 72.20
EURO/USD 1.1690-1.1760 1.1800 1.1850
GBP/USD 1.3060-1.3100 1.3160 1.3240
USD/JPY 112.00-112.50 113.20 114.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
30th August 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,196-1,189 1,180 1,172
Silver-XAG 14.50-13.90 13.50 13.00
Crude Oil 69.20-68.50 67.60 67.00-66.50
EURO/USD 1.1660-1.1610 1.1540 1.1510-1.1450
GBP/USD 1.2990-1.2950 1.2870 1.2800-1.2750
USD/JPY 111.40 110.70 110.20-109.80

Intra-Day Strategy (30th August 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1207.74/oz and low of US$1200.39/oz. Gold down by 0.177% at US$1204.60/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1227) and breakage above will call for1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1207-1235 keeping stop loss closing above 1235, targeting 1,196-1189-1180 and 1172-1166.Buy above 1196-1172with risk below 1172, targeting1207-1214 and 1220-1227-1235.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,196-1,189
S2     1,180
S3     1,172
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,207-1,214
R2     1,220
R3     1,227-1,235

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48,297

Buy
20-DMA   1199.24 Sell
50-DMA  

1223.63

Sell
100-DMA   1264.94 Sell
200-DMA   1289.65 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   67.434 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -6.243 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$14.77/oz and low of US$14.64/oz. Silver settled up by 0.408% at US$14.73/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.50-13.00 targeting 14.90-15.10-15.60 and 16.35-16.60; stop breakage below13.00. Sell below 14.80-17.00with stop loss above17.00; targeting 14.50-13.90 and 13.50-13.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.50-13.90
S2     13.50
S3     13.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80-15.10
R2     15.50
R3     16.40-16.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.990 Buy
20-DMA   14.93 Sell
50-DMA   15.43 Sell
100-DMA   16.00 Sell
200-DMA   16.30 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   48.742 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.223 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$69.57/bbl, intraday low of US$68.20/bbl and settled up by 1.637% to close at US$69.50/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 69.20-71.50 with stop loss at 71.50; targeting 68.50-67.60-67.00 and 66.50-65.70.Buy above 68.50-65.00 with risk daily closing below 65.00 and targeting 69.20-70.00 and 70.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     69.20-68.50
S2     67.60
S3     67.00-66.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     70.00-70.70
R2     71.50
R3     72.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.378 Sell
20-DMA   67.14 Buy
50-DMA   68.74 Buy
100-DMA   68.39 Buy
200-DMA   64.97 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   87.919 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.237 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1651/EUR, high of US$1.1709/EUR and settled the day up by 0.119% to close at US$1.1706/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1540-1.1295with risk below 1.1250, targeting 1.1610-1.1660 and 1.1720-1.1800. Sell below 1.1610-1.1800 targeting 1.1540-1.1450-1.1400 and 1.1360-1.1320with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1660-1.1610
S2     1.1540
S3     1.1510-1.1450

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1690-1.1760
R2     1.1800
R3     1.1850

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.958 Buy
20-DMA   1.1530 Sell
50-DMA   1.1614 Sell
100-DMA   1.1754 Sell
200-DMA   1.1959 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   94.142 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0007 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2844/GBP, high of US$1.3031/GBP and settled the day up by 1.204% to close at US$1.3024/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3060-1.3240 with targets at 1.2990-1.2950 and 1.2870-1.2800-1.2750. Buy above 1.2990-1.2800 with targets 1.3060-1.3100 and 1.3160-1.3240 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2990-1.2950
S2     1.2870
S3     1.2800-1.2750

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3060-1.3100
R2     1.3160
R3     1.3240

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

57.520

Buy
20-DMA   1.2853 Buy
50-DMA   1.3040 Buy
100-DMA   1.3297 Buy
200-DMA   1.3545 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   85.144 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0075 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY111.11/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.82/USD and settled the day up by 0.431% at JPY111.66/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.70-112.50 with risk above 112.50 targeting 109.80-109.00. Long positions above110.20-109.40with targets of110.70-111.40-112.00 and 113.50-114.00with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.40
S2     110.70
S3     110.20-109.80

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.00-112.50
R2     113.20
R3     114.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.064 Buy
20-DMA   110.99 Buy
50-DMA   111.13 Buy
100-DMA   110.29 Buy
200-DMA   109.79 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   82.132 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.108 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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