AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Markets will be watching for more trade-related headlines as optimism that a NAFTA deal could be struck by Friday's deadline gave way to worries over a prolonged Sino-U.S. trade dispute. The leaders of the United States and Canada expressed optimism that they could reach new NAFTA deal by a Friday deadline as negotiators prepared to talk through the night, although Canada warned that a number of tricky issues remained. Under pressure, Canada rejoined the talks to modernize the 24-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement on Wednesday after Mexico and the U.S. announced a bilateral deal on Monday. U.S. President Donald Trump has set a Friday deadline for the three countries to reach an in-principle agreement. Investors will also be keeping abreast of the ongoing trade spat between the U.S. and China to see if any more news materializes. U.S. tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese goods are expected to take effect later next month. Investors fear an escalating trade war between the world's two biggest economies could hit global growth and damage sentiment. Elsewhere, the British pound held around the 1.30 level against the dollar after European Union negotiator Michel Barnier said the bloc was prepared to offer Britain a partnership after Brexit. The foreign exchange market also kept a wary eye on the Turkish lira, which fell roughly 3% to a two-week low amid lingering concerns over deteriorating relations between the U.S. and Ankara. Other struggling emerging market currencies also drew attention, with Argentina's peso and India's rupee slumping to record lows versus the dollar. Emerging market currencies have been hard hit by concerns that higher U.S. interest rates will pressure countries that have borrowed heavily in dollars in recent years. Investors will get more data on the state of the U.S. consumer with personal income and spending data for July set for release at 8:30AM ET. Economists expect personal income to rise 0.3% over the prior month, while spending is forecast to gain 0.4%, according to estimates. The Fed’s preferred inflation metric, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), is also set for release in the morning. The consensus forecast is that the report will show that the core PCE price index inched up 0.2% last month. On an annualized basis, core PCE prices are expected to rise 2%. Weekly initial jobless claims numbers come at the same time, with economists predicting a small rise from the previous week.
  • Gold prices gained on Friday as reports that U.S. President Donald Trump was considering plans to impose tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports as soon as next week weighed on market sentiment. The precious metal remained on track to record their longest monthly losing streak since 2013 despite today’s gains. Gold prices have declined about 7.7% so far this year amid geopolitical events including global trade concerns and the recent Turkish lira crisis, with investors preferring the dollar as a safe-haven.
  • Oil markets held steady on Friday, supported by looming U.S. sanctions against Iran's oil exports and falling Venezuelan output, but held back by concerns the trade war between the United States and China could intensify. With Venezuelan supply falling sharply and concerns around U.S. sanctions against Iran that will target its oil exports from November, crude markets in August are on track to post a more than 4.5 percent rise for Brent and an over 2 percent increase for WTI. In a sign of a tightening market, the amount of unsold crude stored in the Atlantic basin has dwindled from around 30 cargoes to just a handful in recent weeks, trade data showed. Despite this, analysts cautioned that the trade disputes between the United States and other major economies, especially China and the European Union, could start to drag on economic growth and, by extension, fuel demand. U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly planning to ramp up trade conflict with China and has told aides he is ready to impose tariffs on $200 billion more in Chinese imports as soon as a public comment period on the plan ends next week, several media reported on Thursday. Meanwhile, China's Shanghai crude oil futures, launched in March, will see delivery of their first contract on Friday. The speed of Shanghai crude's take-up has surprised many traders and analysts. Traders said Shanghai's fast rise reflects China's importance as the world's biggest oil importer. It is also part of a policy by Beijing to increasingly use the yuan currency in global trade, especially during times of economic disputes with the United States.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
31st August 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,207-1,214 1,220 1,227-1,235
Silver-XAG 14.80-15.10 15.50 16.40-16.60
Crude Oil 70.00-70.70 71.50 72.20
EURO/USD 1.1690-1.1760 1.1800 1.1850
GBP/USD 1.3060-1.3100 1.3160 1.3240
USD/JPY 111.40 112.00-112.50 113.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
31st August 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,196-1,189 1,180 1,172
Silver-XAG 14.50-13.90 13.50 13.00
Crude Oil 69.20-68.50 67.60 67.00-66.50
EURO/USD 1.1660-1.1610 1.1540 1.1510-1.1450
GBP/USD 1.2990-1.2950 1.2870 1.2800-1.2750
USD/JPY 110.70 110.20-109.80 109.30

Intra-Day Strategy (31st August 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1207.74/oz and low of US$1196.22/oz. Gold down by 0.566% at US$1196.22/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1227) and breakage above will call for1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1207-1235 keeping stop loss closing above 1235, targeting 1,196-1189-1180 and 1172-1166.Buy above 1196-1172with risk below 1172, targeting1207-1214 and 1220-1227-1235.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,196-1,189
S2     1,180
S3     1,172
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,207-1,214
R2     1,220
R3     1,227-1,235

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.188

Buy
20-DMA   1199.86 Sell
50-DMA  

1226.10

Sell
100-DMA   1267.70 Sell
200-DMA   1290.45 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   80.218 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -8.369 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$14.82/oz and low of US$14.49/oz. Silver settled down by 1.291% at US$14.52/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.50-13.00 targeting 14.90-15.10-15.60 and 16.35-16.60; stop breakage below13.00. Sell below 14.80-17.00with stop loss above17.00; targeting 14.50-13.90 and 13.50-13.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.50-13.90
S2     13.50
S3     13.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.80-15.10
R2     15.50
R3     16.40-16.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.990 Buy
20-DMA   14.93 Sell
50-DMA   15.43 Sell
100-DMA   16.00 Sell
200-DMA   16.30 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   48.742 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.223 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$70.27/bbl, intraday low of US$69.38/bbl and settled up by 0.373% to close at US$69.79/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 69.20-71.50 with stop loss at 71.50; targeting 68.50-67.60-67.00 and 66.50-65.70.Buy above 68.50-65.00 with risk daily closing below 65.00 and targeting 69.20-70.00 and 70.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     69.20-68.50
S2     67.60
S3     67.00-66.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     70.00-70.70
R2     71.50
R3     72.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.01 Sell
20-DMA   67.26 Buy
50-DMA   68.76 Buy
100-DMA   68.42 Buy
200-DMA   65.03 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   88.951 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.237 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1641/EUR, high of US$1.1717/EUR and settled the day down by 0.299% to close at US$1.1670/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1540-1.1295with risk below 1.1250, targeting 1.1610-1.1660 and 1.1720-1.1800. Sell below 1.1610-1.1800 targeting 1.1540-1.1450-1.1400 and 1.1360-1.1320with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1660-1.1610
S2     1.1540
S3     1.1510-1.1450

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1690-1.1760
R2     1.1800
R3     1.1850

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.958 Buy
20-DMA   1.1530 Sell
50-DMA   1.1614 Sell
100-DMA   1.1754 Sell
200-DMA   1.1959 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   94.142 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0007 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2984/GBP, high of US$1.3042/GBP and settled the day down by 0.176% to close at US$1.3004/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3060-1.3240 with targets at 1.2990-1.2950 and 1.2870-1.2800-1.2750. Buy above 1.2990-1.2800 with targets 1.3060-1.3100 and 1.3160-1.3240 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2990-1.2950
S2     1.2870
S3     1.2800-1.2750

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3060-1.3100
R2     1.3160
R3     1.3240

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

57.520

Buy
20-DMA   1.2853 Buy
50-DMA   1.3040 Buy
100-DMA   1.3297 Buy
200-DMA   1.3545 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   90.244 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0075 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY110.94/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.74/USD and settled the day down by 0.431% at JPY110.95/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.70-112.50 with risk above 112.50 targeting 109.80-109.00. Long positions above110.20-109.40with targets of 110.70-111.40-112.00 and 113.50-114.00with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.70
S2     110.20-109.80
S3     109.30

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.40
R2     112.00-112.50
R3     113.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.458 Buy
20-DMA   110.94 Buy
50-DMA   111.13 Buy
100-DMA   110.32 Buy
200-DMA   109.79 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   41.679 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.001 Sell

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