AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar advanced across the board on Tuesday, rising more than a quarter of a percent against its rivals, as concerns about a likely escalation in trade conflict between the United States and China prompted investors to buy the greenback. The public comment period on a U.S. proposal for new tariffs on Chinese goods is set to end on Thursday, after which U.S. President Donald Trump can follow through on plans to impose tariffs on $200 billion more of Chinese imports, though it is unclear how quickly that will happen. Emerging market currencies came in for special punishment as investors feared these export-oriented economies would be caught in the middle of any escalating trade conflict. The U.S. dollar’s status as the chief reserve currency makes it the primary beneficiary of concern over trade conflicts. The dollar .DXY gained a quarter of a percent at 95.39 against a basket of major currencies. It has gained nearly 7 percent since mid-April when trade tensions first arose. On a positioning basis, markets are firmly in the stronger dollar camp, with net outstanding positions holding just off the highest levels since January 2017, calculations by Reuters and Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Though main Chinese stock benchmarks ended up more than a percent, underlying investor sentiment remained wary with Chinese state-run banks seen intervening to support the local currency. Data this week also might lend further fuel to the dollar rally as U.S. investors return after a long weekend. U.S. August manufacturing ISM data is due later in the day and monthly payrolls data is due on Friday. Kumiko Ishikawa, senior analyst at Sony Financial Holdings, said anxiety has come to the fore as a result of multiple issues, including the China-U.S. trade war and uncertainty about how the NAFTA talks will play out. nvestors remained on edge amid fears over the impact on global growth from U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies. Concerns over an escalation of the trade row between the U.S. and China remained to the fore, as the Trump administration prepared to impose a fresh round of tariffs on Chinese imports, which would escalate the trade row with Beijing. Deteriorating relations between the U.S. and Ankara and worries about Erdogan's increasing control over monetary policy and the economy have seen the lira tumble more than 40% this year. Emerging market currencies have been hard hit by concerns that higher U.S. interest rates will pressure countries that have borrowed heavily in dollars in recent years.
  • Oil prices rose on Tuesday, with U.S. crude breaking through $70 a barrel, after the evacuation of two Gulf of Mexico oil platforms in preparation for a hurricane. Anadarko Petroleum Corp (NYSE:APC) said on Monday it had evacuated and shut production at two oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the approach of Gordon, which is expected to come ashore as a hurricane. Global oil markets have tightened over the last month, pushing up Brent prices by more than 10 percent since the middle of August. Investors anticipate less supply from Iran as U.S. sanctions on Tehran begin to bite. Harry Tchilinguirian, oil strategist at BNP Paribas (PA:BNPP), struck a similar tone, warning of "supply issues" into 2019 While U.S. sanctions are forcing many Western companies to cease trading with Tehran, two of its biggest customers have said they will continue to buy Iranian crude. India will allow state refiners to import Iranian oil if Tehran arranges and insures tankers. And Chinese buyers are shifting most of their Iranian oil imports to vessels owned by National Iranian Tanker Co. Venezuela will hike the price of its heavily subsidized gasoline by October, President Nicolas Maduro said on Monday, as the crisis-stricken government seeks to shore up its coffers amid hyperinflation that is accelerating a broad economic collapse. Despite the crisis, fuel prices are set so low that the equivalent of $1 buys nearly 400,000 gallons of fuel. That cripples the state's hard currency earnings and drives a lucrative smuggling trade. The government on Tuesday will launch a new payment system using a state-backed identification card in border states to limit smuggling, Maduro said, and will increase prices to international levels once that system is in place. Government regulations have kept prices steady at the pump despite inflation that is expected to hit 1,000,000 percent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
4th September 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,207-1,214 1,220 1,227-1,235
Silver-XAG 14.40-14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 70.70-71.50 72.20 73.00
EURO/USD 1.1610-1.1660 1.1690 1.1760-1.1800
GBP/USD 1.2870-1.2950 1.2990 1.3060-1.3100
USD/JPY 112.00-112.50 113.20 114.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
4th September 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,191-1,182 1,174 1,166
Silver-XAG 14.20-13.90 13.50 13.00
Crude Oil 70.00-69.20 68.50 67.60-67.00
EURO/USD 1.1540 1.1510-1.1450 1.1400
GBP/USD 1.2800-1.2750 1.2680 1.2600
USD/JPY 111.40-110.70 110.20 109.80-109.30

Intra-Day Strategy (4th September 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1203.79/oz and low of US$1195.61/oz. Gold up by 0.049% at US$1201.20/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1227) and breakage above will call for1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1205-1235 keeping stop loss closing above 1235, targeting 1,196-1189-1180 and 1172-1166.Buy above 1196-1172with risk below 1172, targeting1207-1214 and 1220-1227-1235.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,191-1,182
S2     1,174
S3     1,166
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,207-1,214
R2     1,220
R3     1,227-1,235

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.220

Buy
20-DMA   1197.26 Sell
50-DMA  

1219.60

Sell
100-DMA   1260.48 Sell
200-DMA   1288.29 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   21.446 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -5.590 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$14.53/oz and low of US$14.38/oz. Silver settled down by 0.0276% at US$14.48/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.20-13.00 targeting 14.40-14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 13.00. Sell below 14.50-17.00 with stop loss above17.00; targeting 14.50-13.90 and 13.50-13.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.20-13.90
S2     13.50
S3     13.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.40-14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   36.058 Buy
20-DMA   14.83 Sell
50-DMA   15.35 Sell
100-DMA   15.95 Sell
200-DMA   16.28 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   48.742 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.223 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

US$69.74/bbl and settled up by 0.916% to close at US$70.50/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 69.20-71.50 with stop loss at 71.50; targeting 68.50-67.60-67.00 and 66.50-65.70.Buy above 68.50-65.00 with risk daily closing below 65.00 and targeting 69.20-70.00 and 70.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     70.00-69.20
S2     68.50
S3     67.60-67.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     70.70-71.50
R2     72.20
R3     73.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.01 Sell
20-DMA   66.70 Buy
50-DMA   68.33 Buy
100-DMA   65.68 Buy
200-DMA   65.15 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   84.351 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.586 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1588/EUR, high of US$1.1627/EUR and settled the day up by 0.224% to close at US$1.1617/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1540-1.1295with risk below 1.1250, targeting 1.1610-1.1660 and 1.1720-1.1800. Sell below 1.1610-1.1800 targeting 1.1540-1.1450-1.1400 and 1.1360-1.1320with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1540
S2     1.1510-1.1450
S3     1.1400

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1610-1.1660
R2     1.1690
R3     1.1760-1.1800

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   12.152 Buy
20-DMA   1.1539 Sell
50-DMA   1.1612 Sell
100-DMA   1.1724 Sell
200-DMA   1.1955 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   12.135 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0009 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2854/GBP, high of US$1.2932/GBP and settled the day down by 0.356% to close at US$1.2869/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2870-1.3100 with targets at 1.2800-1.2750 and 1.2680-1.2600. Buy above 1.2800-1.2600 with targets 1.2870-1.2950-1.2990 and 1.3060-1.3100 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2800-1.2750
S2     1.2680
S3     1.2600

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2870-1.2950
R2     1.2990
R3     1.3060-1.3100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.884

Buy
20-DMA   1.2840 Buy
50-DMA   1.3018 Buy
100-DMA   1.3254 Buy
200-DMA   1.3538 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   25.248 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0028 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY110.84/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.18/USD and settled the day down by 0.054% at JPY111.02/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.70-112.50 with risk above 112.50 targeting 109.80-109.00. Long positions above110.20-109.40with targets of 110.70-111.40-112.00 and 113.50-114.00with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.40-110.70
S2     110.20
S3     109.80-109.30

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.00-112.50
R2     113.20
R3     114.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.458 Buy
20-DMA   110.94 Buy
50-DMA   111.13 Buy
100-DMA   110.32 Buy
200-DMA   109.79 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   41.679 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.001 Sell

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