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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares skidded for a sixth straight session on Thursday, oil slipped and safe-haven gold gained with investor confidence shaken by turmoil in emerging markets and jitters over a potentially severe escalation in the U.S.-China trade war. Investors were on edge with a public consultation period on the Trump administration's intent to impose tariffs on an additional $200 billion of Chinese goods ending on Thursday. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the United States was not yet ready to come to an agreement over trade disputes with China but he said talks would continue. Further weighing on sentiment, data out earlier showed German industrial orders fell unexpectedly in July in another sign that factories in Europe's largest economy are feeling the bite of protectionist trade politics. Investors are also watching for developments as the United States and Canada resume talks about revamping the North American Free Trade Agreement. Canada insisted there was room to salvage the pact despite few signs a deal was imminent. The dollar, considered a safe haven at times of turmoil because of its status as the world's reserve currency, has generally benefited from these trade uncertainties. It has gained 8 percent since end-March, with currencies in emerging markets taking a hammering. A range of factors have hit EM stocks recently, namely policy tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve, crises in Turkey and Argentina, the Sino-U.S. trade war and broader concerns about China's economy.
  • The dollar fell on Thursday as British pound and the Euro rose on breakthrough from Brexit talks, while the Aussie dollar slipped despite data showed the country’s trade surplus in July was better than expected. The dollar, widely seen as a safe haven asset recently at times of turmoil because of its status as the world's reserve currency, has gained 8% since end-March, with currencies in emerging markets taking a hammering. Uncertainty that surrounds the economic outlook for China, Australia's key trading partner, has also weighed on the Aussie. Meanwhile, Argentina’s currency peso hit a record low earlier this week and Turkey’s lira crisis made headlines in late August. South Africa’s rand also fell at a 2% rate against the dollar, marking the lowest level since early 2016. Half of the decline was partly due to the controversies over the country’s land expropriation laws. The catalyst behind the dollar's fall was the pound, which spiked after Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that the United Kingdom and Germany were prepared to drop a key sticking point in Brexit negotiations. The dollar may have pulled back but it was expected to stay well supported in the longer term, continuing to garner safe haven bids in the wake of weakness in emerging market currencies. A public comment period on the possibility of fresh U.S. tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese goods ends on Thursday, stoking fears of a major escalation in the Sino-U.S. trade dispute. Emerging market currencies have been hit by fears that the global trade conflict would negatively affect their export-oriented economies.
  • Oil prices dipped on Thursday as emerging market turbulence weighed on sentiment, while a deadline neared for a potential new round of U.S. tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese goods. Emerging market woes are weighing on global economic growth prospects, with Asian shares on Thursday heading for their sixth straight session of losses. Meanwhile, a public comment period on possible U.S. tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese goods ends on Thursday, with expectations that U.S. President Donald Trump will impose the additional levies. U.S. crude stockpiles fell last week as refineries boosted output amid strong consumption, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed on Wednesday. Crude inventories fell by 1.17 mn barrels to 404.5 million barrels in the week to Aug. 31, while refinery crude runs rose by 198,000 bpd, the data showed. The OPEC said on Wednesday it expected global oil demand to break through 100 million bpd for the first time this year. Meanwhile, there are concerns that U.S. sanctions against Iran, which will target the OPEC-member's oil industry from November, will tighten global supply. A further risk is seen in OPEC-member Venezuela, where a government and political crisis has halved oil production in the last two years to little more than 1 million bpd. David Maher, managing director for energy at commodity trading house RCMA Group, said Venezuela's "declines will continue" as a "lack of cash and infrastructural collapse (are) not easy to fix". Backwardation describes a forward curve in which prices for immediate delivery are higher than those for dispatch later on. This signals tight market conditions as it gives traders an incentive to immediately sell oil instead of putting it into storage.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
6th September 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,207-1,214 1,220 1,227-1,235
Silver-XAG 14.40-14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 68.50-69.00 70.00 70.70-71.50
EURO/USD 1.1610-1.1660 1.1690 1.1760-1.1800
GBP/USD 1.2950 1.2990 1.3060-1.3100
USD/JPY 112.00-112.50 113.20 114.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
6th September 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,191-1,182 1,174 1,166
Silver-XAG 14.00-13.61 13.00 12.40
Crude Oil 68.00 67.60-67.00 65.80
EURO/USD 1.1540 1.1510-1.1450 1.1400
GBP/USD 1.2870 1.2800-1.2750 1.2680
USD/JPY 110.70 110.20 109.80-109.30

Intra-Day Strategy (6th September 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1198.31/oz and low of US$1190.79/oz. Gold up by 0.434% at US$1196.57/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1227) and breakage above will call for1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1200-1235 keeping stop loss closing above 1235, targeting 1196-1189-1180 and 1172-1166.Buy above 1196-1172with risk below 1172, targeting1207-1214 and 1220-1227-1235.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,191-1,182
S2     1,174
S3     1,166
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,207-1,214
R2     1,220
R3     1,227-1,235

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.928

Buy
20-DMA   1195.45 Sell
50-DMA  

1217.39

Sell
100-DMA   1257.42 Sell
200-DMA   1287.33 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   27.000 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -5.954 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$14.22/oz and low of US$14.07/oz. Silver settled up by 0.283% at US$14.17/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.00-12.40 targeting 14.40-14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 13.00. Sell below 14.50-17.00 with stop loss above17.00; targeting 14.50-13.90 and 13.50-13.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.00-13.61
S2     13.00
S3     12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.40-14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   36.058 Buy
20-DMA   14.83 Sell
50-DMA   15.35 Sell
100-DMA   15.95 Sell
200-DMA   16.28 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   48.742 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.223 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$69.38/bbl, intraday low of US$68.36/bbl and settled up by 3.061% to close at US$68.41/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 69.20-71.50 with stop loss at 71.50; targeting 68.50-67.60-67.00 and 66.50-65.70.Buy above 68.50-65.00 with risk daily closing below 65.00 and targeting 69.20-70.00 and 70.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     68.00
S2     67.60-67.00
S3     65.80

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     68.50-69.00
R2     70.00
R3     70.70-71.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.785 Sell
20-DMA   68.53 Buy
50-DMA   68.34 Buy
100-DMA   56.52 Buy
200-DMA   52.01 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   84.351 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.586 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1542/EUR, high of US$1.1639/EUR and settled the day up by 0.414% to close at US$1.1628/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1540-1.1295with risk below 1.1250, targeting 1.1610-1.1660 and 1.1720-1.1800. Sell below 1.1610-1.1800 targeting 1.1540-1.1450-1.1400 and 1.1360-1.1320with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1540
S2     1.1510-1.1450
S3     1.1400

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1610-1.1660
R2     1.1690
R3     1.1760-1.1800

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   12.152 Buy
20-DMA   1.1539 Sell
50-DMA   1.1612 Sell
100-DMA   1.1724 Sell
200-DMA   1.1955 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   12.135 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0009 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2785/GBP, high of US$1.2982/GBP and settled the day up by 0.513% to close at US$1.2904/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2870-1.3100 with targets at 1.2800-1.2750 and 1.2680-1.2600. Buy above 1.2800-1.2600 with targets 1.2870-1.2950-1.2990 and 1.3060-1.3100 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2870
S2     1.2800-1.2750
S3     1.2680

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2950
R2     1.2990
R3     1.3060-1.3100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.720

Buy
20-DMA   1.2847 Buy
50-DMA   1.3011 Buy
100-DMA   1.3230 Buy
200-DMA   1.3534 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.650 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0021 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY111.32/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.75/USD and settled the day down by 0.0800% at JPY111.52/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.70-112.50 with risk above 112.50 targeting 109.80-109.00. Long positions above110.20-109.40with targets of 110.70-111.40-112.00 and 113.50-114.00with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.70
S2     110.20
S3     109.80-109.30

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.00-112.50
R2     113.20
R3     114.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.458 Buy
20-DMA   110.94 Buy
50-DMA   111.13 Buy
100-DMA   110.32 Buy
200-DMA   109.79 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   41.679 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.001 Sell

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