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Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar eased against the yen on Friday after a report suggested that Japan would be the next country with which U.S. President Donald Trump will take up trade issues. The U.S. currency held in relatively tight ranges against other major peers such as the euro and pound, with the market bracing for the highly anticipated U.S. jobs report due later in the session Investors continued to monitor the threat of fresh U.S. tariffs on another $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, which could come as soon as a public comment period ends at midnight in Washington on Thursday. China's commerce ministry warned that Beijing will be forced to retaliate if Washington implements new tariff measures. The world's two largest economies have already applied tariffs to $50 billion of each other's goods. Talks aimed at easing tensions ended last month without major breakthroughs. Washington is demanding Beijing improve market access and intellectual property protections for U.S. companies, cut industrial subsidies and slash a $375 billion trade gap. Investors are also watching for developments as the U.S. and Canada resume talks about revamping the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Canada insisted there was room to salvage the pact despite few signs a deal was imminent. On the data front, the market’s attention will shift to the U.S. labor market with the ADP’s report on private payroll growth, which is often seen as a warmup act for the big Friday government nonfarm payrolls report, and the weekly report on initial jobless claims both set for release in the morning. Economists expect the ADP report to show that private payroll growth totaled 188,000 during August. Elsewhere on the economic calendar on Thursday, the August read on service sector activity from Markit Economics as well as the Institute for Supply Management’s gauge on non-manufacturing economic activity will also be released. Factory orders for July are also set to be published. Economists reckon the data will do little to alter expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates two more times this year, with the next move higher coming at its September 25-26 meeting. U.S. stock index futures pointed to a slightly higher open on Wall Street, although fresh losses in emerging markets and worries Washington will follow through on plans to levy an extra $200 billion of Chinese imports kept investors on the edge.
  • Oil prices fell on Friday after data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed inventories of U.S. crude fell by 4.302 million barrels for the week ended Aug. 31, beating expectations for a draw of 1.294 million barrels. Production was unchanged at 11.0 million bpd for the second-straight week, which also supported the draw in crude supplies. Gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose by 1.845 million barrels, confounding expectations for a draw of 0.810 million barrels, while supplies of distillate -- the class of fuels that includes diesel and heating oil -- rose by 3.119 million barrels, against expectations for a build of just 0.742 million barrels. Elsewhere, the upcoming U.S. sanctions on Iran would continue to affect outlook of oil prices this year, according to analysts. Innes then noted he believed price outlook for crude remains bullish largely due to the upcoming U.S. sanctions targeting Iran's oil sector from November. Ongoing emerging market weakness as well as potential new U.S. import tariffs on Chinese goods were also weighing on oil market sentiment, traders said. The Trump administration could place tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods as soon as today, according to reports. China's commerce ministry has said the country would retaliate if the U.S. imposes new tariffs.
  • Gold prices rose on Friday morning in Asia as the U.S. dollar slipped against Japanese yen amid fears that Washington would turn its attention on trade issues with Tokyo, after it slapped 25% tariffs on Chinese products in late August and with the potential of further tariffs hanging in the balance. The USD/JPY pair dropped 0.16% to 110.57, as U.S. President Donald Trump told a Wall Street Journal columnist that he is considering taking on trade issues with Japan. The news sparked concerns in markets and raised demand for the yellow precious metal, which is seen as a safe haven asset during turmoil. A fresh wave of tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods that can take effect as early as today is also keeping markets on edge. Public consultation on this new round of tariffs is already done. Although Beijing warned the U.S. that it would retaliate against new tariff measures, Trump said on Wednesday that Washington is not ready to reach an agreement with China.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
7th September 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,207-1,214 1,220 1,227-1,235
Silver-XAG 14.40-14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 68.00 68.50-69.00 70.00
EURO/USD 1.1660 1.1690 1.1760-1.1800
GBP/USD 1.2950 1.2990 1.3060-1.3100
USD/JPY 112.00-112.50 113.20 114.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
7th September 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,191-1,182 1,174 1,166
Silver-XAG 14.00-13.61 13.00 12.40
Crude Oil 67.60-67.00 65.80 65.30
EURO/USD 1.1610 1.1540 1.1510-1.1450
GBP/USD 1.2870 1.2800-1.2750 1.2680
USD/JPY 110.70 110.20 109.80-109.30

Intra-Day Strategy (7th September 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1206.92/oz and low of US$1195.74/oz. Gold up by 0.294% at US$1196.75/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1227) and breakage above will call for1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1200-1235 keeping stop loss closing above 1235, targeting 1196-1189-1180 and 1172-1166.Buy above 1196-1172with risk below 1172, targeting1207-1214 and 1220-1227-1235.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,191-1,182
S2     1,174
S3     1,166
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,207-1,214
R2     1,220
R3     1,227-1,235

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.928

Buy
20-DMA   1195.45 Sell
50-DMA  

1217.39

Sell
100-DMA   1257.42 Sell
200-DMA   1287.33 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   27.000 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -5.954 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$14.29/oz and low of US$14.09/oz. Silver settled down by 0.141% at US$14.13/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.00-12.40 targeting 14.40-14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 13.00. Sell below 14.50-17.00 with stop loss above17.00; targeting 14.50-13.90 and 13.50-13.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.00-13.61
S2     13.00
S3     12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.40-14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   36.058 Buy
20-DMA   14.83 Sell
50-DMA   15.35 Sell
100-DMA   15.95 Sell
200-DMA   16.28 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   48.742 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.223 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$68.80/bbl, intraday low of US$66.80/bbl and settled up by 0.973% to close at US$67.67/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 68.00-70.00 with stop loss at 71.50; targeting 68.50-67.60-67.00 and 66.50-65.70.Buy above 68.50-65.00 with risk daily closing below 65.00 and targeting 69.20-70.00 and 70.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     67.60-67.00
S2     65.80
S3     65.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     68.00
R2     68.50-69.00
R3     70.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.512 Sell
20-DMA   68.57 Buy
50-DMA   68.50 Buy
100-DMA   68.50 Buy
200-DMA   65.29 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   15.881 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.586 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1604/EUR, high of US$1.1658/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0051% to close at US$1.1622/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1540-1.1295 with risk below 1.1250, targeting 1.1610-1.1660 and 1.1720-1.1800. Sell below 1.1610-1.1800 targeting 1.1540-1.1450-1.1400 and 1.1360-1.1320 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1610
S2     1.1540
S3     1.1510-1.1450

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1660
R2     1.1690
R3     1.1760-1.1800

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.018 Buy
20-DMA   1.1557 Sell
50-DMA   1.1614 Sell
100-DMA   1.1703 Sell
200-DMA   1.1952 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   45.342 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0012 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2894/GBP, high of US$1.2961/GBP and settled the day up by 0.162% to close at US$1.2924/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2870-1.3100 with targets at 1.2800-1.2750 and 1.2680-1.2600. Buy above 1.2800-1.2600 with targets 1.2870-1.2950-1.2990 and 1.3060-1.3100 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2870
S2     1.2800-1.2750
S3     1.2680

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2950
R2     1.2990
R3     1.3060-1.3100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.720

Buy
20-DMA   1.2847 Buy
50-DMA   1.3011 Buy
100-DMA   1.3230 Buy
200-DMA   1.3534 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.650 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0021 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY110.51/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.52/USD and settled the day down by 0.690% at JPY110.74/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.70-112.50 with risk above 112.50 targeting 109.80-109.00. Long positions above110.20-109.40with targets of 110.70-111.40-112.00 and 113.50-114.00with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.70
S2     110.20
S3     109.80-109.30

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.00-112.50
R2     113.20
R3     114.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.561 Buy
20-DMA   110.93 Buy
50-DMA   111.22 Buy
100-DMA   110.51 Buy
200-DMA   109.78 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   34.885 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.001 Sell

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