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  • Asian shares advanced on Thursday on news the Trump administration has reached out to China for a new round of trade talks, which raised hopes for a deal easing the bitter tariff dispute between the world's two biggest economies. Senior U.S. officials led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin recently sent an invitation to their Chinese counterparts, including Vice Premier Liu He, to hold another bilateral trade meeting. The development comes as more than 85 U.S. industry groups launched a coalition on Wednesday to take public its fight against President Donald Trump's trade tariffs. Trump's tariffs have escalated far beyond what business groups once imagined as the administration prepares to activate duties on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, hitting a broad array of internet technology products and consumer goods from handbags to bicycles to furniture. Still, any serious signs of easing in trade tensions should benefit shares in China and other Asian courtiers the most given they have borne the brunt of U.S. protectionist moves. The trade tensions have hammered global riskier assets over the past few months as policymakers and investors worried about the hit to the world economy. In the currency market, the dollar eased a little on the trade talk hopes as well as on soft U.S. wholesale price data, which undermined the case for a faster pace of policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in August, recording their first drop in 1-1/2 years and denting talk of accelerating inflation following Friday's strong wage data. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England hold policy meetings on Thursday, but both are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged.
  • FED officials tout a decade of falling unemployment as among their major victories in fighting the economic crisis of 2007 to 2009. Now they are beginning to worry they have been too successful. When unemployment falls as low as it is currently, Boston Federal Reserve bank president Eric Rosengren said in a news paper released Thursday as part of a review of Fed policy, recession has inevitably followed, with the central bank showing no success in fine-tuning the economy to a stable rest at full employment. Policy forecasts have often projected such a “soft landing,” he noted, and with unemployment at a near two decade low of 3.9 percent the hope has risen again. Rosengren used his remarks to advocate the Fed regularly review its policy “framework” by conducting a systematic review of what is working and what is not at regular intervals rather than adapting to events on the fly as has been more typically the case. On Wednesday Fed Governor Lael Brainard, among the more cautious of policymakers regarding past rate hikes, said she now feels rates may need to keep rising for another year or two as stronger growth takes hold. In research also released Thursday, former Fed chair Ben Bernanke said one failing of the Fed in the crisis era was that its models of the economy did not include many of the credit and financial dynamics that made the last recession so bad. Building those dynamics into new analytic tools would, in effect, weave more of an emphasis on credit markets into the central bank’s outlook. That could involve discussion over issues like raising the inflation target from the current 2 percent so all interest rates would move up, or targeting a level of gross domestic product the Fed would aim to hit through higher inflation.
  • Oil prices fell on Thursday, reversing some of the strong gains from the previous session, as economic concerns raised doubts about ongoing fuel demand growth. The falls were due to concerns of a potential slowdown in fuel demand growth because of trade disputes between the United States and China, the world's two largest oil consumers, as well as emerging market turmoil. The Trump administration has invited Chinese officials to restart trade talks, just as Washington prepares to escalate the U.S.-China trade war with tariffs on $200 bn worth of Chinese goods. The OPEC on Wednesday reduced its forecast for 2019 global oil demand growth, pointing to economic risks. In its monthly report, OPEC said world oil demand next year would rise by 1.41 mn bpd, 20,000 bpd less than last month and the second consecutive reduction in the forecast. One factor that could weigh on long-term fuel demand is China's decision to take at least 1 million heavy duty diesel trucks off the roads by 2020, and to replace them with vehicles using alternative fuels like electric engines, liquefied natural gas or to shift transport to rail. U.S. crude inventories fell 5.3 million barrels in the week to Sept. 7 to 396.2 mn barrels, the lowest since February 2015 and about 3% below the five-year average for this time of year, the U.S. EIA said on Wednesday. U.S. crude oil production fell by 100K bpd, to 10.9 mn bpd, as the industry faces pipeline capacity constraints. Gasoline stocks rose 1.3 mn barrels, while distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, climbed by 6.2 mn barrels, the EIA data showed.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
13th September 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,207-1,214 1,220 1,227-1,235
Silver-XAG 14.40-14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 70.00 70.60-71.10 72.00
EURO/USD 1.1660 1.1690-1.1760 1.1800
GBP/USD 1.3060-1.3100 1.3140 1.3200
USD/JPY 112.00-112.50 113.20 114.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
13th September 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,191-1,182 1,174 1,166
Silver-XAG 14.00-13.61 13.00 12.40
Crude Oil 69.00-68.50 68.00 67.60-67.00
EURO/USD 1.1610-1.1540 1.1510 1.1450-1.1400
GBP/USD 1.2990-1.2950 1.2870 1.2800-1.2750
USD/JPY 111.00-110.70 110.20 109.80-109.30

Intra-Day Strategy (13th September 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1208.39/oz and low of US$1192.63/oz. Gold up by 0.635% at US$1206.04/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1227) and breakage above will call for1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1200-1235 keeping stop loss closing above 1235, targeting 1196-1189-1180 and 1172-1166.Buy above 1196-1172with risk below 1172, targeting 1207-1214 and 1220-1227-1235.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,191-1,182
S2     1,174
S3     1,166
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,207-1,214
R2     1,220
R3     1,227-1,235

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.854

Buy
20-DMA   1198.29 Sell
50-DMA  

1212.34

Sell
100-DMA   1251.16 Sell
200-DMA   1285.31 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   75.423 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.756 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$14.26/oz and low of US$14.05/oz. Silver settled up by 0.921% at US$14.23/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.00-12.40 targeting 14.40-14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 13.00. Sell below 14.50-17.00 with stop loss above17.00; targeting 14.50-13.90 and 13.50-13.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.00-13.61
S2     13.00
S3     12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.40-14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   31.863 Buy
20-DMA   14.55 Sell
50-DMA   15.17 Sell
100-DMA   15.81 Sell
200-DMA   16.21 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   26.954 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.223 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$70.92/bbl, intraday low of US$69.26/bbl and settled up by 0.588% to close at US$70.06/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 70.00-72.00 with stop loss at 72.00; targeting 69.00-68.50-67.60-67.00 and 66.50-65.70.Buy above 69.00-67.00 with risk daily closing below 67.00 and targeting 69.20-70.00 and 70.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     69.00-68.50
S2     68.00
S3     67.60-67.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     70.00
R2     70.60-71.10
R3     72.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.251 Sell
20-DMA   68.05 Buy
50-DMA   68.26 Buy
100-DMA   68.49 Buy
200-DMA   65.46 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   61.032 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.329 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1569/EUR, high of US$1.1648/EUR and settled the day up by 0.189% to close at US$1.1625/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1510-1.1295 with risk below 1.1250, targeting 1.1540-1.1610-1.1660 and 1.1720-1.1800. Sell below 1.1540-1.1800 targeting 1.1540-1.1450-1.1400 and 1.1360-1.1320 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1610-1.1540
S2     1.1510
S3     1.1450-1.1400

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1660
R2     1.1690-1.1760
R3     1.1800

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.713 Buy
20-DMA   1.1601 Sell
50-DMA   1.1608 Sell
100-DMA   1.1680 Sell
200-DMA   1.1946 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   70.641 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0004 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2997/GBP, high of US$1.3081/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0383% to close at US$1.3037/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3060-1.3200 with targets at 1.2990-1.2950-1.2870 and 1.2800-1.2750. Buy above 1.2990-1.2700 with targets 1.3060-1.3100 and 1.3140-1.3200 with stop loss closing below 1.2700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2990-1.2950
S2     1.2870
S3     1.2800-1.2750

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3060-1.3100
R2     1.3140
R3     1.3200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

57.816

Buy
20-DMA   1.2883 Buy
50-DMA   1.3000 Buy
100-DMA   1.3201 Buy
200-DMA   1.3527 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   75.816 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0029 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY111.10/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.64/USD and settled the day up by 0.322% at JPY111.25/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.00-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 111.00-110.70-110.20 and 109.80-109.00. Long positions above 111.00-109.40 with targets of 112.00-112.50 and 113.50-114.00 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.00-110.70
S2     110.20
S3     109.80-109.30

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.00-112.50
R2     113.20
R3     114.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.650 Buy
20-DMA   110.97 Buy
50-DMA   111.23 Buy
100-DMA   110.53 Buy
200-DMA   109.78 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   37.885 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.001 Sell

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