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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares nudged higher on Friday as moves by the United States and China to resolve a bitter trade dispute and a sharp interest rate hike in crisis-hit Turkey supported global risk appetite. Chinese officials welcomed an invitation from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin for new talks. But U.S. President Donald Trump tempered market expectations, tweeting on Thursday that the U.S. is "under no pressure to make a deal with China." The Trump administration is readying a final list of $200 bn in Chinese imports on which it plans to levy tariffs in the coming days, a move that many fear would mark a severe escalation in the trade war and put a significant dent in global growth. The uncertainty around the trade tensions was highlighted by the European Central Bank, which on Thursday kept policy unchanged as expected and warned that risks from protectionism were gaining prominence Turkey's central bank helped to support sentiment in emerging markets, striking out in a rare show of independence to hike its benchmark interest rate by 625 basis points, to 24%. Currency crises both in Turkey and Argentina have stoked fears of contagion over the past several weeks, hammering emerging market assets. The two-year yield fell Thursday after data showed U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in August, and underlying inflation pressures also appeared to be slowing, suggesting the Federal Reserve's pace of rate hikes could slow. Markets will also be focused on a raft of data from China due later this morning as investors look to any signs of economic stress from the heated trade dispute with the United States. The euro was flat at $1.1688 after rising on Thursday on comments from ECB President Mario Draghi that focused on healthy domestic fundamentals, including rapid growth in employment and a rise in wages.
  • The Chinese yuan continued to stabilize Friday morning as economic news out of Europe and Japan suggested that some of the volatility of recent months may be levelling off, but risk is not far off. On Friday, the People’s Bank of China set the reference rate for the yuan at 6.8362, stronger than the 6.8488 rate on Thursday. China’s industrial output rose 6.1% in August, beating estimates of a 6% increase .The yuan has been sliding against the US dollar since April and has lost more than 9% since then. It has gained some ground over the past couple of days, the PBOC set the reference rate stronger two days in a row, after reports that talks on trade between the U.S. and China may resume. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is reportedly working to meet with China’s top economic office Liu He. U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted on Thursday that the pressure is on China but the prospects of talk’s calmed markets. On Friday, the Japanese government maintained its assessment that the economy is recovering at a moderate pace but noted that capital expenditures are rising, which should push economic growth. The risk of a trade war between the U.S. and China could slow growth down in Japan, however. On Thursday, the European Central Bank kept rates steady and announced plans to end bond purchases at the end of this year while keeping interest rates low. The bank sees inflation rebounding and economic growth stable but leveling off.
  • Oil on Friday clawed back some of its losses from the previous session, when prices fell the most in a month, as concerns about oil supply are countering worries that emerging market crises and trade disputes could dent demand. The IEA on Thursday warned that although the oil market was tightening at the moment and world oil demand would reach 100 mn bpd in the next three months, global economic risks were mounting. China will not buckle to U.S. demands in any trade negotiations, the major state-run China Daily newspaper said in an editorial on Friday, after Chinese officials welcomed an invitation from Washington for a new round of talks. U.S. President Trump said on Twitter on Thursday that the United States holds the upper hand in talks. Still, supply concerns are supported by data showing that U.S. crude production fell by 100K bpd to 10.9 mn bpd last week as the industry faces pipeline capacity constraints. Though weekly output slipped, the United States likely surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia earlier this year to become the world's largest crude oil producer, based on preliminary estimates from the EIA Although the EIA does not publish crude production forecasts for Russia and Saudi Arabia in its short term outlook, it expects that U.S. output will continue to exceed Russian and Saudi production for the remaining months of 2018 and through 2019. The loss of Iranian oil to the market as refiners are cutting or halting purchase ahead of U.S. sanctions in November is also raising concerns about supply.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
14th September 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,220 1,220 1,227-1,235
Silver-XAG 14.40-14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 69.00 70.00 70.60-71.10
EURO/USD 1.1690-1.1760 1.1800 1.1850
GBP/USD 1.3140-1.3200 1.3250 1.3310
USD/JPY 112.00-112.50 113.20 114.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
14th September 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,191-1,182 1,174 1,166
Silver-XAG 14.00-13.61 13.00 12.40
Crude Oil 68.50 68.00 67.60-67.00
EURO/USD 1.1660-1.1610 1.1540 1.1510-1.1450
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3060 1.2990 1.2950-1.2870
USD/JPY 111.00-110.70 110.20 109.80-109.30

Intra-Day Strategy (14th September 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1212.58/oz and low of US$1200.09/oz. Gold down by 0.392% at US$1201.30/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1227) and breakage above will call for1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1200-1235 keeping stop loss closing above 1235, targeting 1196-1189-1180 and 1172-1166.Buy above 1196-1172with risk below 1172, targeting 1207-1214 and 1220-1227-1235.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,191-1,182
S2     1,174
S3     1,166
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,220
R2     1,220
R3     1,227-1,235

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.854

Buy
20-DMA   1198.29 Sell
50-DMA  

1212.34

Sell
100-DMA   1251.16 Sell
200-DMA   1285.31 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   75.423 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.756 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$14.33/oz and low of US$14.15/oz. Silver settled down by 0.421% at US$14.16/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.00-12.40 targeting 14.40-14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 13.00. Sell below 14.50-17.00 with stop loss above17.00; targeting 14.50-13.90 and 13.50-13.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.00-13.61
S2     13.00
S3     12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.40-14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.531 Buy
20-DMA   14.44 Sell
50-DMA   15.02 Sell
100-DMA   15.72 Sell
200-DMA   16.17 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   71.670 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.223 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$70.05/bbl, intraday low of US$68.16/bbl and settled down by 2.00% to close at US$68.60/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 70.00-72.00 with stop loss at 72.00; targeting 69.00-68.50-67.60-67.00 and 66.50-65.70.Buy above 69.00-67.00 with risk daily closing below 67.00 and targeting 69.20-70.00 and 70.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     68.50
S2     68.00
S3     67.60-67.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     69.00
R2     70.00
R3     70.60-71.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.230 Sell
20-DMA   68.43 Buy
50-DMA   68.13 Buy
100-DMA   68.50 Buy
200-DMA   65.57 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   54.245 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.299 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1608/EUR, high of US$1.1700/EUR and settled the day up by 0.559% to close at US$1.1689/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1660-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450, targeting 1.1690-1.1760 and 1.1800-1.1850. Sell below 1.1690-1.1850 targeting 1.1660-1.1610-1.1540 and 1.1450-1.1400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1850.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1660-1.1610
S2     1.1540
S3     1.1510-1.1450

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1690-1.1760
R2     1.1800
R3     1.1850

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.545 Buy
20-DMA   1.1617 Sell
50-DMA   1.1609 Sell
100-DMA   1.1676 Sell
200-DMA   1.1946 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   88.861 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0004 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3025/GBP, high of US$1.3123/GBP and settled the day up by 0.529% to close at US$1.3106/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3140-1.3310 with targets at 1.3100-1.3060-1.2990 and 1.2950-1.287-1.2800. Buy above 1.3100-1.2700 with targets 1.3140-1.3200 with stop loss closing below 1.2700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3100-1.3060
S2     1.2990
S3     1.2950-1.2870

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3140-1.3200
R2     1.3250
R3     1.3310

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

63.441

Buy
20-DMA   1.2938 Buy
50-DMA   1.2990 Buy
100-DMA   1.3177 Buy
200-DMA   1.3522 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   88.660 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0031 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY111.16/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.99/USD and settled the day up by 0.602% at JPY111.91/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.00-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 111.00-110.70-110.20 and 109.80-109.00. Long positions above 111.00-109.40 with targets of 112.00-112.50 and 113.50-114.00 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.00-110.70
S2     110.20
S3     109.80-109.30

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.00-112.50
R2     113.20
R3     114.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.650 Buy
20-DMA   110.97 Buy
50-DMA   111.23 Buy
100-DMA   110.53 Buy
200-DMA   109.78 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   37.885 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.001 Sell

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