AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Most Asian share markets slipped on Monday amid reports Washington was about to announce a new round of tariffs on Chinese imports, setting the stage for possible reprisals by Beijing. Liquidity was thin with Japan on holiday and moves in currencies and bonds were minor. Hong Kong markets opened as normal after a super typhoon brushed the city on its way to landfall in China’s Guangdong, the country’s most populous province. U.S. President Donald Trump is likely to announce new tariffs on about $200 bn on Chinese imports as early as Monday, a senior administration official told Reuters. The WSJ also reported Beijing may decline to participate in proposed trade talks with the United States later this month if the Trump administration moves forward with the tariffs. Other officials who advise the country’s leaders are suggesting China impose limits on the sale of parts and supplies needed by U.S. businesses, using “export restraints” to threaten their supply chains. The U.S. dollar slipped while the Aussie dollar edged higher on Monday as markets awaited an announcement of additional U.S. tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods. Reports on the weekend suggested that U.S. President Donald Trump wants to move forward with tariffs on $200 bn in Chinese goods. The Japanese stock market is closed in observance of Respect-for-the-Aged Day. A monetary policy announcement from the Bank of Japan is due this week, though no change is expected. The dollar has seen a surge in safe-haven demand from an escalation of global trade tensions involving the United States, China, Canada and the European Union. Expectations of faster U.S. rate rises have also pulled the currency higher. Investors continue to be bullish on the greenback with net long positions of $19.2 bn, according to calculations by Reuters and Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. The first of three Brexit summits are set for the coming week, where EU leaders hope to settle an agreement within the next two months over the terms of Britain's departure. Investors will watch for European inflation data later in the day and a speech by ECB President Mario Draghi on Tuesday.
  • Gold prices and the U.S. dollar both slipped on Monday as the United States is set impose a new round of tariffs on Chinese imports. Reports on the weekend suggested that U.S. President Donald Trump wants to move forward with tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods. The tariff level will probably be about 10%, the Wall Street Journal reported, quoting people familiar with the matter. This is below the 25% the administration said it was considering for this possible round of tariffs. Looking ahead, the U.S. Commerce Department is set to publish a report on building permits and housing starts for August at on Wednesday.
  • Oil prices slipped on Monday morning in Asia as reports on the weekend suggested that the U.S. planned to slap tariffs on a new batch of $200 billion worth of Chinese exports, a move that offset fears of supply constraints caused by Washington’s sanctions against Iran. Sources from CNBC said that U.S. President Donald Trump is ready to impose a new round of tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods as early as this week, ahead of trade talks initiated by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin to de-escalate trade jitters. The new tariffs may be set at 10%, below the original figure of 25% floated by the administration in the past. The decision came after the conclusion of public consultations on this new around of tariffs earlier this month. Trump threatened to put tariffs on virtually all Chinese products and dampened expectations about the impact of trade talks with Beijing. Meanwhile, traders are also paying close attention to the U.S. crude sanctions on Iran, which are set to take effect in November. The country’s oil exports are down by almost a third since the sanctions announcement in April. They dropped below 2 million barrels a day in August and continued to fall in the first half of September. Iran said on Saturday that Saudi Arabia and Russia have taken the oil market “hostage” as Washington is seeking to slap new sanctions Iran’s oil sales. Those sanctions could see the country’s oil exports drop to zero in November. The U.S. also encouraged oil producers to pump more oil to offset the shortfall from Iran. Last week, U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry met with his Russian and Saudi Arabian counterparts. He said the three countries, the three largest oil producers in the world, can raise global output in the next 18 months to compensate for falling oil supplies.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
17th September 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,207-1,214 1,220 1,227-1,235
Silver-XAG 14.40-14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 69.00 70.00 70.60-71.10
EURO/USD 1.1690-1.1760 1.1800 1.1850
GBP/USD 1.3100 1.3140-1.3200 1.3250
USD/JPY 112.00-112.50 113.20 114.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
17th September 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,191-1,182 1,174 1,166
Silver-XAG 14.00-13.61 13.00 12.40
Crude Oil 68.50 68.00 67.60-67.00
EURO/USD 1.1660-1.1610 1.1540 1.1510-1.1450
GBP/USD 1.3060 1.2990 1.2950-1.2870
USD/JPY 111.00-110.70 110.20 109.80-109.30

Intra-Day Strategy (17th September 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1208.50/oz and low of US$1192.84/oz. Gold down by 0.642% at US$1193.63/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1227) and breakage above will call for1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1200-1235 keeping stop loss closing above 1235, targeting 1196-1189-1180 and 1172-1166.Buy above 1196-1172with risk below 1172, targeting 1207-1214 and 1220-1227-1235.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,191-1,182
S2     1,174
S3     1,166
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,207-1,214
R2     1,220
R3     1,227-1,235

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.854

Buy
20-DMA   1198.29 Sell
50-DMA  

1212.34

Sell
100-DMA   1251.16 Sell
200-DMA   1285.31 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   75.423 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.756 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$14.27/oz and low of US$14.02/oz. Silver settled down by 0.707% at US$14.04/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.00-12.40 targeting 14.40-14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 13.00. Sell below 14.50-17.00 with stop loss above17.00; targeting 14.50-13.90 and 13.50-13.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.00-13.61
S2     13.00
S3     12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.40-14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.531 Buy
20-DMA   14.44 Sell
50-DMA   15.02 Sell
100-DMA   15.72 Sell
200-DMA   16.17 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   71.670 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.223 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$69.69/bbl, intraday low of US$67.78/bbl and settled up by 0.218% to close at US$68.77/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 70.00-72.00 with stop loss at 72.00; targeting 69.00-68.50-67.60-67.00 and 66.50-65.70.Buy above 69.00-67.00 with risk daily closing below 67.00 and targeting 69.20-70.00 and 70.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     68.50
S2     68.00
S3     67.60-67.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     69.00
R2     70.00
R3     70.60-71.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.230 Sell
20-DMA   68.43 Buy
50-DMA   68.13 Buy
100-DMA   68.50 Buy
200-DMA   65.57 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   54.245 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.299 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1619/EUR, high of US$1.1721/EUR and settled the day down by 0.564% to close at US$1.1622/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1660-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450, targeting 1.1690-1.1760 and 1.1800-1.1850. Sell below 1.1690-1.1850 targeting 1.1660-1.1610-1.1540 and 1.1450-1.1400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1850.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1660-1.1610
S2     1.1540
S3     1.1510-1.1450

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1690-1.1760
R2     1.1800
R3     1.1850

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.545 Buy
20-DMA   1.1617 Sell
50-DMA   1.1609 Sell
100-DMA   1.1676 Sell
200-DMA   1.1946 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   88.861 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0004 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3025/GBP, high of US$1.3142/GBP and settled the day down by 0.282% to close at US$1.3068/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3100-1.3310 with targets at 1.3060-1.2990 and 1.2950-1.2870-1.2800. Buy above 1.3060-1.2800 with targets 1.3100-1.3140-1.3200 and 1.3250-1.3300 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3060
S2     1.2990
S3     1.2950-1.2870

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3100
R2     1.3140-1.3200
R3     1.3250

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

60.109

Buy
20-DMA   1.2950 Buy
50-DMA   1.2986 Buy
100-DMA   1.3170 Buy
200-DMA   1.3520 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   76.753 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0031 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY111.74/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.16/USD and settled the day up by 0.134% at JPY112.06/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.00-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 111.00-110.70-110.20 and 109.80-109.00. Long positions above 111.00-109.40 with targets of 112.00-112.50 and 113.50-114.00 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.00-110.70
S2     110.20
S3     109.80-109.30

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.00-112.50
R2     113.20
R3     114.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.279 Buy
20-DMA   111.25 Buy
50-DMA   111.35 Buy
100-DMA   110.67 Buy
200-DMA   109.76 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   37.885 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.001 Sell

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