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  • European shares opened little changed after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 10 percent tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, and warned of duties on more products if China took retaliatory action. Thomas Costerg, senior U.S. economist at Pictet, said ahead of the U.S. trade announcement that investors might well be prepared for it and take the view that the Trump administration had shown some restraint as it could have slapped even higher tariffs.
  • Euro zone needs to agree on the details of a backstop for its planned bank resolution fund by the end of the year, European Central Bank policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Tuesday. European Union leaders agreed at the end of June to allow the ESM bailout fund to lend in an emergency to the existing bank resolution fund if it runs out of cash in a crisis. They left it to finance ministers to settle the details by December. The EU's bank-financed rescue fund for failing lenders was set up as part of a banking union plan during the financial crisis, but it still lacks enough cash to cope with a large banking crisis, meaning it would require a safety net. The backstop issue, along with a common insurance scheme for European depositors, have long blocked the completion of the euro zone's banking union with a single supervisory body. The yuan and the U.S. dollar traded slightly lower on Tuesday following an announcement by the Trump administration that the U.S. would put 10% tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods, which will go up to 25% at the end of the year. The fall in the Chinese yuan came after U.S. President Donald Trump said in a statement on Monday that U.S. is slapping 10% tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, and that the tariffs would rise to 25% in January 2019. Trump added that "if China takes retaliatory action against our farmers or other industries, we will immediately pursue phase three, which is tariffs on approximately $267 billion of additional imports." "We have been very clear about the type of changes that need to be made, and we have given China every opportunity to treat us more fairly," he said in the statement. "But, so far, China has been unwilling to change its practices. According to reports, the U.S. removed about 300 goods from a previously proposed list of affected products, including smart watches, some chemicals, along with some other products. Last week’s consumer spending and inflation data was a disappointment. Retail sales in August dropped to 0.1%, down from 0.5% a month earlier. This missed the estimate of 0.4%. Core retail sales followed a similar trend, falling from 0.6% to o.3%. It missed the forecast of 0.5%. These key consumer spending numbers come on the heels of CPI, which came in at just 0.2% and missed the estimate of 0.3%. There was better news from UoM Consumer Sentiment in September, which jumped to 100.8, above the estimate of 96.7 points, This marked the first time that the indicator cracked the 100-level since March.
  • The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is concerned by threats to crude supply from large producers such as Iran, the group’s top official said. Unilateral U.S. sanctions on oil sales by Iran, OPEC’s third-biggest supplier, take effect on Nov. 4. Iran’s crude exports are already falling as the U.S. prepares to curb Tehran’s ability to sell oil and participate in global financial markets. Iran is a “very important producer and exporter” of oil, the group’s Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said at an event in the United Arab Emirates city of Fujairah. “When you have major producers facing supply challenges, it’s of concern” for OPEC and consumers alike, he said. Crude is averaging about $72 a barrel this year, and the International Energy Agency warned last week that prices could rise above $80 unless producers compensate for lost supply from OPEC members Iran and Venezuela. While trade disputes and financial woes in some countries may affect crude demand, the IEA said supply risks are the more important issue. Venezuela is pumping half as much oil as in 2016 and faces further declines amid economic upheaval. Barkindo made his comments two days after noting unspecified threats to global demand for crude. Oil consumption is “robust,” but crude use “is beginning to face some headwinds,” he said Sunday in an interview in Dubai, without elaborating. Saudi Arabia and Russia led OPEC and allied producers in agreeing to limit output starting in January 2017 to curb a glut. They changed course in June and have pledged to ensure that supplies are adequate to meet demand. A committee of OPEC members and other producers is to meet on Sept. 23 in Algiers to review compliance with their output targets. Most of the 25 producers in the alliance will attend, according to an OPEC delegate. OPEC plans to decide by December on a framework for permanent cooperation with allied producers, Barkindo said in Fujairah. The organization is to hold its next full ministerial meeting on Dec. 3 in Vienna.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
18th September 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,207-1,214 1,220 1,227-1,235
Silver-XAG 14.40-14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 69.00 70.00 70.60-71.10
EURO/USD 1.1690-1.1760 1.1850 1.1850
GBP/USD 1.3140-1.3200 1.3250 1.3320
USD/JPY 112.00-112.50 113.20 114.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
18th September 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,191-1,182 1,174 1,166
Silver-XAG 14.00-13.61 13.00 12.40
Crude Oil 68.50 68.00 67.60-67.00
EURO/USD 1.1660-1.1610 1.1540 1.1510-1.1450
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3060 1.2990 1.2950-1.2870
USD/JPY 111.50-111.00 110.70 110.20-109.80

Intra-Day Strategy (18th September 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1204.75/oz and low of US$1192.73/oz. Gold up by 0.552% at US$1192.75/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1227) and breakage above will call for1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1200-1235 keeping stop loss closing above 1235, targeting 1196-1189-1180 and 1172-1166.Buy above 1196-1172with risk below 1172, targeting 1207-1214 and 1220-1227-1235.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,191-1,182
S2     1,174
S3     1,166
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,207-1,214
R2     1,220
R3     1,227-1,235

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.165

Buy
20-DMA   1199.22 Sell
50-DMA  

1212.34

Sell
100-DMA   1251.16 Sell
200-DMA   1285.31 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   75.423 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.756 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$14.23/oz and low of US$14.02/oz. Silver settled up by 0.854% at US$14.16/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.00-12.40 targeting 14.40-14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 13.00. Sell below 14.50-17.00 with stop loss above17.00; targeting 14.50-13.90 and 13.50-13.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.00-13.61
S2     13.00
S3     12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.40-14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.531 Buy
20-DMA   14.44 Sell
50-DMA   15.02 Sell
100-DMA   15.72 Sell
200-DMA   16.17 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   71.670 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.223 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$68.28/bbl, intraday low of US$65.28/bbl and settled up by 0.0399% to close at US$68.50/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 70.00-72.00 with stop loss at 72.00; targeting 69.00-68.50-67.60-67.00 and 66.50-65.70.Buy above 69.00-67.00 with risk daily closing below 67.00 and targeting 69.20-70.00 and 70.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     68.50
S2     68.00
S3     67.60-67.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     69.00
R2     70.00
R3     70.60-71.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.230 Sell
20-DMA   68.43 Buy
50-DMA   68.13 Buy
100-DMA   68.50 Buy
200-DMA   65.57 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   54.245 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.299 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1617/EUR, high of US$1.1695/EUR and settled the day up by 0.507% to close at US$1.1682/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1660-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450, targeting 1.1690-1.1760 and 1.1800-1.1850. Sell below 1.1690-1.1850 targeting 1.1660-1.1610-1.1540 and 1.1450-1.1400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1850.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1660-1.1610
S2     1.1540
S3     1.1510-1.1450

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1690-1.1760
R2     1.1850
R3     1.1850

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.545 Buy
20-DMA   1.1617 Sell
50-DMA   1.1609 Sell
100-DMA   1.1676 Sell
200-DMA   1.1946 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   88.861 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0004 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3065/GBP, high of US$1.3164/GBP and settled the day up by 0.665% to close at US$1.3152/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3100-1.3310 with targets at 1.3060-1.2990 and 1.2950-1.2870-1.2800. Buy above 1.3060-1.2800 with targets 1.3100-1.3140-1.3200 and 1.3250-1.3300 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3100-1.3060
S2     1.2990
S3     1.2950-1.2870

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3140-1.3200
R2     1.3250
R3     1.3320

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

63.252

Buy
20-DMA   1.2966 Buy
50-DMA   1.2984 Buy
100-DMA   1.3166 Buy
200-DMA   1.3519 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   82.346 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0045 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY111.75/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.11/USD and settled the day down by 0.142% at JPY111.83/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.00-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 111.00-110.70-110.20 and 109.80-109.00. Long positions above 111.00-109.40 with targets of 112.00-112.50 and 113.50-114.00 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.50-111.00
S2     110.70
S3     110.20-109.80

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.00-112.50
R2     113.20
R3     114.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.279 Buy
20-DMA   111.25 Buy
50-DMA   111.35 Buy
100-DMA   110.67 Buy
200-DMA   109.76 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   37.885 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.001 Sell

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