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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian equities extended rally in afternoon trade on Wednesday as markets continued to recover from trade war fears. Beijing announced on Tuesday retaliatory tariffs that targeted more than 5,000 U.S. products worth $60 billion. The new tariffs would take effect on Sep 24, China’s Ministry of Finance said in a statement. The country’s commerce ministry also filed a complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO) against the U.S., according to reports.  The announcement seemed to have little impact on Asian stocks however, as major indices including Shanghai Composite and the Nikkei 225 jumped more than 1.5% in afternoon trade. Markets also took comfort from the fact that the new U.S. tariffs were set at 10% for now rather than the previous expected 25% tariffs, according to analysts. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) concluded its meeting and kept its monetary policy steady as expected. The central bank also maintained its short-term interest rate target at minus 0.1% as expected. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will hold a news conference later in the day to explain the policy decision.
  • The U.S. dollar slipped, while the Japanese yen hovered near a two-month low on Wednesday as investors digested the latest trade news. The Trump administration previously stated that the U.S. would impose tariffs on another $267 billion of additional imports if China retaliates. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen, which is widely considered a safe asset during periods of risk aversion, weakened to near a two-month low of 113.18 earlier in the session as markets took comfort from the fact that the new U.S. tariffs were set at 10% for now rather than the previous expected 25% tariff. The USD/JPY pair last traded at 112.35, down 0.03%.The Japanese yen weakened to near-two-month lows against the dollar as financial markets took fresh U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods in their stride and as U.S. bond yields shot up to four-month highs on fears of rising inflation. The British pound gained a tad in early Asian trade, hitting its highest levels in almost two months versus the dollar, the euro and the yen, on hopes the European Union and the U.K. will strike a deal to avoid a hard Brexit. On the central bank front in Asia, the Bank of Japan is widely expected keep its policy on hold when it concludes its two-day meeting later on Wednesday. Markets will be looking to BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's post-meeting comments, with some expecting he may also warn about risks from U.S.-led protectionism. Sterling held firm on hopes about progress toward a Brexit deal ahead of an informal European Union summit in Salzburg on Wednesday and Thursday. British Prime Minister Theresa May said Britain and the European Union were nearing a divorce deal. The EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier said on Tuesday the European Union is ready to address key British concerns over Northern Ireland, in a clear push to get a Brexit deal effectively done in the next month.
  • Oil prices were mixed on Wednesday morning in Asia as U.S. crude stocks climbed and markets shrugged off escalating trade tensions. Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday that U.S. crude stocks hiked by 1.2 million barrels to 397.1 million in the week to Sept. 14, opposed to market expectations of a drop of 2.7 million barrels. Meanwhile, the latest trade dispute between Washington and Beijing escalated as U.S. President Donald Trump announced 10% tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese products on Monday, which is scheduled to take effect on Sep. 24. Stockpiles of distillate fuels, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 1.5 million barrels, the API data showed, compared with expectations for a 651,000-barrel gain. China retaliated by adding $60 billion of U.S. goods to its import tariff list on Tuesday. The growing trade jitters sent worries to the oil market. Ministers from OPEC nations and non-OPEC oil producers are due to meet on the coming Sunday to talk about output policies. OPEC sources told Reuters that no imminent action was planned and the members will discuss how to share an output increase. Meanwhile, ministers from OPEC nations and non-OPEC producers are set to meet on Sunday to discuss compliance with output policies. OPEC sources have told Reuters no immediate action was planned and producers would discuss how to share a previously agreed output increase. OPEC with a group of non-OPEC producers that includes Russia started withholding oil supplies in 2017 to end a global glut and prop up prices. Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing unnamed Saudi sources, that the kingdom was currently comfortable with prices above $80per barrel, at least for the short term. Bloomberg reported that while Saudi Arabia had no desire to push prices higher than $80, it may no longer be possible to avoid it. U.S. sanctions affecting Iran's petroleum sector are due to come into force from Nov. 4.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
19th September 2018 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,207-1,214 1,220 1,227-1,235
Silver-XAG 14.40-14.80 15.10 15.50-16.40
Crude Oil 70.00 70.60-71.40 72.00
EURO/USD 1.1690-1.1760 1.1800 1.1850
GBP/USD 1.3140-1.3200 1.3250 1.3320
USD/JPY 112.50-113.20 114.00 114.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
19th September 2018 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,191-1,182 1,174 1,166
Silver-XAG 14.00-13.61 13.00 12.40
Crude Oil 69.00-68.50 68.00 67.60-67.00
EURO/USD 1.1660-1.1610 1.1540 1.1510-1.1450
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3060 1.2990 1.2950-1.2870
USD/JPY 111.00 111.00 110.70-110.20

Intra-Day Strategy (19th September 2018)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Neutral
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1203.46/oz and low of US$1195.80/oz. Gold down by 0.255% at US$1198.16/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1227) and breakage above will call for1240-1260. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1200-1235 keeping stop loss closing above 1235, targeting 1196-1189-1180 and 1172-1166.Buy above 1196-1172with risk below 1172, targeting 1207-1214 and 1220-1227-1235.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,191-1,182
S2     1,174
S3     1,166
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,207-1,214
R2     1,220
R3     1,227-1,235

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.165

Buy
20-DMA   1199.22 Sell
50-DMA  

1212.34

Sell
100-DMA   1251.16 Sell
200-DMA   1285.31 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   75.423 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.756 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$14.21/oz and low of US$14.06/oz. Silver settled up by 0.211% at US$14.13/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (16.69), breakage above will lead to17.25-17.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.00-12.40 targeting 14.40-14.90-15.10 and 15.60-16.35; stop breakage below 13.00. Sell below 14.50-17.00 with stop loss above17.00; targeting 14.50-13.90 and 13.50-13.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.00-13.61
S2     13.00
S3     12.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.40-14.80
R2     15.10
R3     15.50-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.1605 Buy
20-DMA   14.34 Sell
50-DMA   14.91 Sell
100-DMA   15.65 Sell
200-DMA   16.14 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   48.461 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.238 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$70.14/bbl, intraday low of US$65.27/bbl and settled up by 1.269% to close at US$69.42/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 61.15 which is a major resistance and breakage above will call for62.20-62.80. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 70.00-72.00 with stop loss at 72.00; targeting 69.00-68.50-67.60-67.00 and 66.50-65.70.Buy above 69.00-67.00 with risk daily closing below 67.00 and targeting 69.20-70.00 and 70.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     69.00-68.50
S2     68.00
S3     67.60-67.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     70.00
R2     70.60-71.40
R3     72.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.089 Sell
20-DMA   68.85 Buy
50-DMA   68.98 Buy
100-DMA   68.55 Buy
200-DMA   65.76 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   56.040 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.358 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1651/EUR, high of US$1.1723/EUR and settled the day down by 0.154% to close at US$1.1662/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2164), which become immediate resistance level, break below will target 1.2150-1.2000. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently approaching oversold region and giving wards directions to consider sell.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1660-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450, targeting 1.1690-1.1760 and 1.1800-1.1850. Sell below 1.1690-1.1850 targeting 1.1660-1.1610-1.1540 and 1.1450-1.1400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1850.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1660-1.1610
S2     1.1540
S3     1.1510-1.1450

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1690-1.1760
R2     1.1800
R3     1.1850

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.397 Buy
20-DMA   1.1632 Sell
50-DMA   1.1604 Sell
100-DMA   1.1660 Sell
200-DMA   1.1944 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   64.773 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0004 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3117/GBP, high of US$1.3171/GBP and settled the day down by 0.045% to close at US$1.3146/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.3953) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3100-1.3310 with targets at 1.3060-1.2990 and 1.2950-1.2870-1.2800. Buy above 1.3060-1.2800 with targets 1.3100-1.3140-1.3200 and 1.3250-1.3300 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3100-1.3060
S2     1.2990
S3     1.2950-1.2870

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3140-1.3200
R2     1.3250
R3     1.3320

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

63.252

Buy
20-DMA   1.2966 Buy
50-DMA   1.2984 Buy
100-DMA   1.3166 Buy
200-DMA   1.3519 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   82.346 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0045 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY111.65/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.38/USD and settled the day up by 0.456% at JPY112.34/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining below 200DMA (109.62), which is major resistance on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given positive crossover to confirm bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.50-114.70 with risk above 114.70 targeting 111.00-110.70-110.20 and 109.80-109.00. Long positions above 112.00-109.40 with targets of 112.00-112.50 and 113.50-114.00 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.00
S2     111.00
S3     110.70-110.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.50-113.20
R2     114.00
R3     114.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.279 Buy
20-DMA   111.25 Buy
50-DMA   111.35 Buy
100-DMA   110.67 Buy
200-DMA   109.76 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   37.885 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.001 Sell

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